Pocket Ts...Horrible Turn Card...Value Bet River?

[RED_RAIN]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB folds, MP2 calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Good bet? I think so.

River: (5.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, Hero checks.

Do I bet this since I wasn't raised yet? Also, call if check/raised here?

Final Pot: 5.75 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 5.75 BB, between MP2 and Hero.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by Hero (5.75 BB).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
MP2 shows 3c 8d (two pair, kings and nines).
Hero shows Td Th (two pair, kings and tens).
Outcome: Hero wins 5.75 BB. </font>

[skunkworks]

I think you can bet this pretty comfortably on the river. You'll get calls from ace-high hands hoping to split, and you can pretty safely fold to any river C/R.

[TRWIII]

My initial impulse is to bet, but the more I think about it the less sure I get. What are you expecting him to call with that you can beat? You might get a call from an AQ or similar, but more than likely he'll fold, raise a boat (bad) or call or raise with a flush (both are bad). I really doubt you're winning more than half of the time if you're called.

After considering it, the only way I'd make the bet is if you believe you're opponent will call with ace high or would fold a flush to a double paired board.

Oh, and if you do bet, unless you know the opponent is a maniac, fold to a checkraise.

Just my 2 cents,
TRWIII

[Monty Cantsin]

Why is the turn card horrible? You were already behind any K. This turn doesn't change anything except make it less likely he has a K.

I would bet the river and call a raise.

/mc

[nepenthe]

Red_Rain:

You should bet, and CALL a raise. This is Party 2/4. Trust me, quite a few people will raise (and even 3-bet!) you with ace-high HU on the river. I see these types of COMPLETE bluff river check-raises every single day as a regular Party 2/4 player, and many times they make these plays against two or more opponents.

[Sully]

I suspect that this turn card helps you a LOT more often than it hurts you against most 2/4 PartyPeople.

Give it to 'em.

[TRWIII]

I suppose this is a read dependant situation. Against a typical PP 2/4 player, yeah, calling a checkraise is probably right if it happens.

Again on whether the river bet is correct, it really depends on if you think your opponent will call with ace high or less.

Just my 2 cents,
TRWIII

[nepenthe]

[ QUOTE ]
After considering it, the only way I'd make the bet is if you believe you're opponent will call with ace high or would fold a flush to a double paired board.

[/ QUOTE ]

A made flush definitely isn't folding the river here. If the opponent was indeed drawing to a diamond flush on the turn, he would've given up right there since the board is already double-paired. Having called the turn, a made flush is folding the river exactly 0% of the time. You are betting here for value, not in the hopes of making a better hand fold which will not happen.

[TRWIII]

The value to a river bet is what Im not sure is there.

The river bet looks like it's for value only if you think the villain will call over half the time with a hand you beat. Against an average PP 2/4 player, the river bet is probably slightly +EV, but not by much. And if the villain is a better player than you suspect, then that river bet loses what little +EV it had.

Oh and while the chances of a better hand is very small I never rule out the silly things 2/4 players will do.

TRWIII

[Michael Davis]

There is a 0% chance your Ts are beaten on the river. Bet and you will get called when he has an ace and sometimes worse.

EDIT: Oops, I missed the river flush possibility. You still have a bet.

And your opponent would be wrong to lay down an ace here, generally.

-Michael