a JTs hand from last session.

[Trix]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) - No notes on the people involved.

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, SB calls.

River: (17 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 20 BB

I dont like this hand, how would you have played ? All comments appreciated...

[SnakeRat]

Flop raise seems correct here.

Turn raise, what do you put SB on? Jx? Flush draw?
I like the turn raise also.
You can knock MP2 out and probably check behind on the river if you are so inclined.
When MP2 calls 2 cold twice, it looks like big hearts or a passively played QQ/KK/AA/AJ.

I play this the same, though I may have bet the river.

[StellarWind]

Preflop and flop are fine.

The stop-and-go sure sounds like a jack. That's a terrible sign given your kicker and SB called a raise preflop.

I am inclined to just call the turn. Raising could be necessary to knock out the people behind us, but that requires a big parlay:

1. We need to be ahead right now, but we probably aren't.

2. It must be possible to knock them out. There may be a flush draw or slowplay behind us.

3. They hit their six-outer.

4. The river card doesn't make someone else a winner anyway.

No point in betting the river. SB checked because you raised twice, that's not a reason to think you are ahead. My reaction to MP2's bet is that he's bluffing. We have to call and hope.

[Fnord]

Anyone re-raise pre-flop?

[balkii]

Trix- why no river bet. It doesnt make sense. I think every street is fine except that.

[balkii]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop and flop are fine.

The stop-and-go sure sounds like a jack. That's a terrible sign given your kicker and SB called a raise preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

It does sound like a J, but if it is, its probably about even money to be dominating/dominated. People play some bad cards.

[ QUOTE ]
I am inclined to just call the turn. Raising could be necessary to knock out the people behind us, but that requires a big parlay:

1. We need to be ahead right now, but we probably aren't.



[/ QUOTE ]

Then you should fold. If you think you are behind to due kicker trouble you have 3 outs and should fold in this size pot. If theres a chance you are ahead raising is crucial is you are going to play on.

[ QUOTE ]
2. It must be possible to knock them out. There may be a flush draw or slowplay behind us.


[/ QUOTE ]

Knocking people out is not a requirement for the raise to be correct.

[ QUOTE ]
3. They hit their six-outer.

4. The river card doesn't make someone else a winner anyway.


[/ QUOTE ]

Its a much better idea to raise rather than call the turn if someone holds a six-outer behind us.

[balkii]

[ QUOTE ]
No point in betting the river. SB checked because you raised twice, that's not a reason to think you are ahead. My reaction to MP2's bet is that he's bluffing. We have to call and hope.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well you didnt think you were ahead on the turn, but you're gonna overcall on the river now?

I'd feel much better about checking the river if you were last to act, but since you cant guarantee yourself a free showdown here I think its better to put the bet in yourself.

How often do you think someone raises preflop, coldcalls the flop and turn, and then tries to bluff 2 players who have been betting and raising the whole way? I'll admit you see wild stuff and if I had accidentally checked here I would probably call but i think it would be a mistake to play like this every time.


My 0.02

[TheHip41]

I'm thinking you are beat here on both fronts. SB probably has a bigger Jack than you, or a pair and a flush draw. But it sure looks like from the turn SB has a big Jack, or turned two pairs. SB's river check is weak, but is afraid of a bigger two pair, or a set, since they didn't hit the flush.

I'm thinking MP2 has two black Kings, and you are done. The fact that MP2 bets doesn't mean you are beaten, but what could the SB have that they bet into you twice, then called the river? J9? would they really bet J-9 into a pre flop raiser, and a flop raiser? I dont think that's the case.

Interesting to see the results.
Derek

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
It does sound like a J, but if it is, its probably about even money to be dominating/dominated. People play some bad cards.

[/ QUOTE ]
Even money? Assuming he had top pair on the flop, we are behind A, K, Q, and 3 and ahead of 8, 7, 5, 4, and 2. Are you suggesting the preflop coldcall and the postflop bets mean nothing? That J7 or J2 is as likely as AJ or QJ? If the unknown SB is betting top pair we are definitely not the favorite here.

[ QUOTE ]
Then you should fold. If you think you are behind to due kicker trouble you have 3 outs and should fold in this size pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
I should fold at 12-1 pot odds because I think I am probably behind but would have three outs if I was? Folding top pair in a pot of this size is out of the question. Sometimes I will be ahead despite appearances and sometimes the river will save me. That's plenty to call one bet.

I spent a lot of time considering the turn call/raise question. The chances of lining all the planets up so that raising knocks out MP2 and saves the pot seem minimal. One straw calculation I did came to 2%. But the truth is you need a showdown and that changed my mind in favor of raising. If raising prevents SB from betting the river it gains heavily. Shifting the river bet to the turn forces MP2 to either fold his draw or contribute an extra bet that the pot would not otherwise get. Even if MP2 winds up with the best hand at least we won't get stuck calling a river bet and then getting raised from behind.

[ QUOTE ]
Well you didnt think you were ahead on the turn, but you're gonna overcall on the river now?

I'd feel much better about checking the river if you were last to act, but since you cant guarantee yourself a free showdown here I think its better to put the bet in yourself.

How often do you think someone raises preflop, coldcalls the flop and turn, and then tries to bluff 2 players who have been betting and raising the whole way? I'll admit you see wild stuff and if I had accidentally checked here I would probably call but i think it would be a mistake to play like this every time.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I'm gonna put one more bet in this 19 BB pot.

I check behind SB because I believe that while I may be winning I am not a favorite against SB. I don't expect to win if MP2 calls because he is busted or slowplaying. Very often MP2 will check his bust and I will have my free showdown. But as you point out MP2 might choose to bet behind me. In that case it is definitely right to have checked. He is either bluffing or he has a monster:

Bluffing: I gain a bet that I could not get by betting myself. I avoid getting checkraised in case SB is scheming. He might even miraculously convince SB to fold a better hand and give me the pot. His bet is scarier than mine would be.

Monster: Checking gets me out of this situation losing only 1 BB and I escape completely if SB checkraises. Betting loses 1 BB up front and forces me to make an unpleasant decision when he raises me. Folding is undoubtedly correct but having spent 1 BB it would be better to get a showdown just in case.

[MarkD]

Fold the flop. Sklansky has talked about this type of situation before where you have top pair mediocre kicker on a draw heavy board and an EP player bets into large field. This field happens to contain the pre-flop raiser as well. Just fold.

If you don't fold the flop then I like your line except I think you should bet the river. Also, I think a strong argument could be made for folding the turn after the entire field calls your flop raise. The problem is the pot is gigantic now but I think raising and folding are close on the turn and that calling is worse than both of them, but probably not by much.

[balkii]

[ QUOTE ]
Even money? Assuming he had top pair on the flop, we are behind A, K, Q, and 3 and ahead of 8, 7, 5, 4, and 2. Are you suggesting the preflop coldcall and the postflop bets mean nothing?

[/ QUOTE ]

It would help to have a read but I think its safe to assume this player is probably "loose," simply because the majority of players are. This means hands like J8o and J2s are certainly contenders for this player. Also the stop and go is pretty telltale of a player who doesnt like his hand that much, suggesting a weak kicker. Maybe even money is a little off, but in this size pot you can't really fold. And calling sucks.

As for the river - well I just hate these situations. Raise for a showdown on the turn but then you dont get it. I really am not sure of what the best play is. Lets see some results, eh?!

[Fnord]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the flop. Sklansky has talked about this type of situation before where you have top pair mediocre kicker on a draw heavy board and an EP player bets into large field. This field happens to contain the pre-flop raiser as well. Just fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought that advise was for when the pot is small? That's clearly not the case here. I don't see how you can lay this down without some serious resistance.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought that advise was for when the pot is small? That's clearly not the case here. I don't see how you can lay this down without some serious resistance.

[/ QUOTE ]


That may be the case here but I would venture to say that most people would play on post flop even if there wasn't a raise pre-flop.

If you look at Trix's effective odds here. He ended up getting 19:4 to see this to a showdown in a situation where even if he is ahead there is a good chance he won't be by the river. His backdoor straight on the flop lends credence to playing on, but this still seems like a bad spot.

I have a feeling everyone will think that folding is wrong but if it is it isn't wrong by much, and I believe that it's correct.

[1800GAMBLER]

Link to this? Or what book is it in?

This hand was played correctly.

[MarkD]

I can't remember what book it is in. I'm trying to find it. It's either HPFAP or TOP. He mentions it in this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=558077&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb =5&amp;o=&amp;vc=1) thread though. Not exactly the same situation but not completely dissimilar either.

I'll try to find it in text.

[Trix]

MP2: 33
SB: AJ

After talking to Jay, I actually think I played it correctly :/

[balkii]

[ QUOTE ]
After talking to Jay, I actually think I played it correctly

[/ QUOTE ]

Do share

[MarkD]

Also, it's in HPFAP pg 80, 81 in the chapter, "Odds and Implied Odds".

I must say that the examples here specifically state, "and there has been no raise before the flop", so folding here may be way out to lunch.

I did say that I like Trix's line if he isn't going to fold and that folding / raising is close but this is one concept I am a bit foggy on because I would typically play on and spill a lot of chips in a hand like this, just like Trix did.

[Trix]

I wont win when called often enough.
SB will have a better hand often, but not often enough to fold the turn. MP2 aren´t going to call with a worse hand.

[1800GAMBLER]

Ok. SBs action has been call 1.5 bets preflop, bet the flop, call the raise and then bet the turn.

The flop is pretty standard, big pot, you have outs against you and no reason to hugely believe you are behind and if you are behind you have 5 outs against the PFR. I'm not really fearing SB because that line is very common with 9,x plus alll the draws on there yet it's very strange/uncommon for a jack to do this and when i do see it it's usually J2s/somehthing bad.

So to the turn. SB now bets the turn, ok i'll give him credit for J,x a majority of the time. X is probably larger than our kicked also given his action, yet the pot is laying us 12:1 atm and we can take it to showdown for 7.5:1, i don't think we are beat that much of a time.

So now we've worked out we aren't folding the options are call or raise. If we call we'll have to call another river bet a large percentage of the time, so that's costs us 2BBs. If we raise we are very unlikely to get 3 bet here. We'll force PFR (who most likely has overcards) to call two cold and the rest of the field, they may even fold 9,x J,x which would be great. So instead of calling one in each street raise now and take the free showdown.

re: sklansky fold. This situation is totally totally different. In that hand you have millions of collective outs against you, here you don't have that many. Moreso there is a much larger risk of being behind in sklansky hand. Plus it's a small pot.

[Cosimo]

Wow, MP2 played this pretty horribly, I think. Reraise preflop with 33? Call two cold into what's likely to be a 20SB pot (9:1) with an underpair?

SB called 1.5 from the SB, then leads the flop. To me, that suggests TPGK or 2p. (I think sets try to get tricky.) There's only two J9s possible preflop; 8 AJ. His turn lead suggests that he isn't on a flush draw.

MP2, Mr. Passive, scares me because he raised preflop but called the whole way. I would put him on an overpair, letting you two do the betting for him.

Looks like BB and MP1 were on straight draws but missed.