Folding a flopped strait on the turn.......Too tight? [Archive]

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me454555

07-17-2004, 03:50 PM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

This was one of the wierdest hands I've ever been involved in. I flopped the nuts and was left wondering if I could possibly be behind? Comments appreciated

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, CO calls, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, CO raises, Button 3-bets, UTG+1 caps, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (15.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, CO calls, Button 3-bets, UTG+1 caps, UTG+2 calls $0.66 (All-In), Hero folds, CO calls, Button calls.

River: (30.91 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players, 1 all-in)
UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Button bets, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 33.91 BB
Main Pot: 21.57 BB, between CO, Button, UTG+1 and UTG+2.
Pot 2: 12.34 BB, between CO, Button and UTG+1.

citizenkn

07-17-2004, 05:15 PM

The pot is huge, and although that turn Q is scary given the action, you still have a great hand. In a 30bb pot, I can't see laying down a straight unless I'm absolutely sure I'm beat (i.e. four flush or double pair on the board). In this case, I'd just try and see the showdown cheaply....

balkii

07-17-2004, 05:35 PM

Why didnt you raise the flop?

Jstyal

07-17-2004, 07:08 PM

In this situation I would raise the flop (and capped it) and then closely observe the action around the table--is someone else raising me? Who's calling? etc... The turn is scary yeah, but I would raise again to probe once again the activity at the table after my raise. If everyone is still raising after you (even after you capped the flop), then I would be concerned about a potential boat. In my experience though, I've found that flopped nut straights typically are the best hand even after there are two pairs after the turn and river.

gamblore99

07-17-2004, 07:29 PM

First off you definitely should have raised the flop considering the preflop action. You have a pretty big pot and people are gonna wanna stick around, make them pay for it.

The more I think about the more I think calling down is the better way to go. I would imagine that your opponents most likely have AK, AQ, KQ, AJ as most would likely raise QQ, KK, AA before the flop.

Of the AK, AQ, KQ, AJ, you beat AK, AQ, and tie with AJ and lost to KQ. THis alone is enough to call down, not to mention the very big and juicy pot.

me454555

07-18-2004, 05:42 PM

I thought there would be more value in waiting for the turn to raise. I had the nuts and there weren't any real good draws out there. I was going to c/r once CO raised it but when button 3 bet him, I thought I'd lay low and let them do the raising for me on flop and sneek up on them on the turn.

me454555

07-18-2004, 05:51 PM

Once the turn got capped, I knew the pot was going to be split at best. I looked at the situation like this. I've got to pay another 2 bbs to see the river and at least another 1 bb maybe even 2 to see the showdown b/c I'm not folding on the river. 4 bb's for a pot that has 15 in it right now. Theres a chance someone has the fh and theres also a chance someone's on a flush draw on top of the fact that I'm most likely looking at a split pot to begin with.

On the river, any club might be bad, any T, Q, or K is almost definatly bad, and any A or J leaves me w/a definate split pot.

W/all those bad cards in the deck that could fall, I didnt want to get into a calling war between 2 people who could easily have my hand beat

citizenkn

07-18-2004, 06:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Once the turn got capped, I knew the pot was going to be split at best. I looked at the situation like this. I've got to pay another 2 bbs to see the river and at least another 1 bb maybe even 2 to see the showdown b/c I'm not folding on the river. 4 bb's for a pot that has 15 in it right now. Theres a chance someone has the fh and theres also a chance someone's on a flush draw on top of the fact that I'm most likely looking at a split pot to begin with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's what has you beat on the turn: KQ, QT, TT, KK (unlikely given the pre-flop action), and QQ (also unlikely). On the other hand, you are beating or splitting against: Any pocket pair, any Q except KQ and QT, KT, and AJ. It's also likely that there are players with a random J or A looking for a miracle sttraight card. In other words, there are very few hands that have you beat, and LOTS of hands that you are beating.

On the turn, it's not four bets into a 15 BB pot. You've already got two in there, so it's just 2 bets into what is now a 30 BB pot. The pot is much too large for you to fold this hand, especially since there is a strong possibility you are way ahead.

So what were the results? Inquiring minds want to know.....

me454555

07-18-2004, 07:22 PM

Button had QT for the full house, UTG had AJ, and CO had J9