What are common upswings/downswings for microlimit games?

[Entity]

I'm trying to judge if I'm just running unlucky, or playing badly. Perhaps it's both. I'm down 30BB today, and it feels like it's mostly on bad beats: QQ vs A9o (catches trip 9's on the turn), KK vs A2 (catches the wheel on the river), and other hands where I lose to someone who hits one of three outs, one of six outs (on the river), etc.

Overall, I'm down about 50BB over the last month, and I can't figure out what's going on. My premium hands are getting outdrawn, I never feel like I hit with AK, AQ, and when I do hit, it's to limited action.

I'd just like to hear from other micro players that can tell me what common up/downswings are, since I'm relatively new to the game. Any advice?

Rob

[huxbux]

I'm relatively new myself, but I can tell you that I've have a few 30-50BB downswings in a day that have extended to a 100BB fall in 2-3 days. Then I've had 100BB upswing in a day. Playing a tight/aggressive style these are expected to some degree. Variance is and should be expected in poker, so don't let it psychologically effect how you play the game.

[Georgia Peach]

Get used to it. The bad beats that is. Move to the next hand.

Upswings, downswings, are pretty common. Get pocker tracker and analyze your game.

[LeftBack]

Poker Tracker's nice because it gives statistics about starting hands. But that's often misleading because you also need to know what kind of success you're having with improving your hands. Are your draws succeeding or not? That's not done very well in PT, so you have to look at it manually, I think. That will give you some idea as to how the cards are treating you.

The other thing is to review your postflop play. Are you hanging onto bad hands? Replay hands and check the PT win %. This number is also problematic, since PT is basing it's calculations on known starting hands. You should check your estimate of the starting hands against the probabilities, and see if you missed a clue that indicated a strong opponent.

And, of course, most importantly: REMEMBER THE VARIANCE. Mine runs around 15BB/100, so you can easily see that dropping 30BB in 100 hands will be quite common.

[kenewbie]

Nothing to worry about entity. Most players who start out (and happen to read this forum) get worried when they have a real downswing and come posting here. I'm sure if you do a little search you will find some comfort in posts with much larger swings than yours.

30 BB feels like a lot but you have to expect much larger swings than that. It gets easier to deal with them when you have had a few. Just take a break and try not to let the loosing affect your play (that gets easier with time aswell, although you will never get rid of it you can do damage control)

My personal "best" at this point is 150 BB down in 3 days.
And people have experienced much worse.

k

[Jaran]

I win!!!! I just got out of a 200+ BB downswing over 4 days! Woo Hoo! (I hate poker)

-Jaran

[kenewbie]

[ QUOTE ]
I win!!!! I just got out of a 200+ BB downswing over 4 days! Woo Hoo! (I hate poker)


[/ QUOTE ]

hehe congratulations! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

k

[Sent]

Made up a lot of my 110BB downswing in the past 3 days /images/graemlins/smile.gif

-Sent

[Jaran]

I'm about halfway back in two days.

-Jaran

[HajiShirazu]

I have been on an upswing of around 6 to 8 thousand BB over the last 9 months.

[SomethingClever]

When I first started limit, I had a +96 BB swing, followed by a -86 BB swing.

Followed by a +200 swing, followed by a -86BB swing again.

Yesterday and today, I'm +141 BB.

Yay!

Those are over many, many sessions, and there are little ups and downs along the way, but that's the general trend.

[Blarg]

Yeah, I find big swings the norm, too. Especially in the lower-limit games where I play, where you consistently have people playing to the end with nothing or without the odds to justify what little they do have, giving you a much greater chance to have your good hands drawn out on than you find in tighter games.

Going up or down 100BB or even more in a single day is pretty common for me over the 25k hands I have recorded. Everything is magnified because I play four tables at once, too.

I'm still well ahead, but variation alternately adores and despises me regularly.

[RED_RAIN]

Something I'll just point out.

When people are talking about large swings being normal. Yes the higher the limit you go the bigger the swings.

At the low limits (.5/1 and below) I'm starting to question people having swings of 100 BBs or more.

I've had one 100 BB swing over 4 days at .5/1 which was my worst. Do I think I was playing great poker and the deck was hitting me hard? In short no. I think instead of sometimes people saying just blow it off, swings happen, we should look at our hands and look for potential leaks.

So instead of people asking is this okay/normal? Post hands where you are losing a lot of money other than normal AA being cracked by 2 pair, but more hands like, should I have drawn here, should I have pushed so hard here, so I have folded her hands. Bad beats are bad beats, but bad plays I think can drive some people into downswings.

[kenewbie]

[ QUOTE ]
At the low limits (.5/1 and below) I'm starting to question people having swings of 100 BBs or more.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. When I start spiraling downwards (especially when you are close to a landmark sum) the tilt suddenly becomes very strong in this one.

I'm sure its the same for many others. I like to think I'm past the stage where I tilt easily now, and my swings have decreased a lot due to that.

Also, a factor in the swings when you are just starting out is that your play will not be consistant. Maybe that guy who sits down with $300 will affect your play, same with that other guy who always seem to suck out on you who you 3-bet on the river knowing you are beaten just to prove to yourself how horrible he is. (Tilt anyone? I know I've done this on more than one occation)

Experimenting with your play (which I hope people do) will also have an effect, as well as wrong reads when starting out. (I'm sure this table is loose/passive enough for me to limp UTG with 65s)

In short, its determined by a lot of factors, and many of those has less impact as you get more experience.

k