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Frogger
07-17-2004, 01:18 AM
Hmmm.. I'm not doing so hot around the bubble. here are some results that will show you why.

200+15
1: 1
2: 0
3: 1
4: 3
5: 2
6: 0
7: 1
8: 0
9: 0
10: 0

A lot of the 4/5s are due to going all in on draws. I've got to stop being willing to call an all-in on the flop with 4 to a flush. It's just not likely enough that you'll win the pot if you're risking you entire tournament on it. It's stupid business and i've got to stop doing it.

I just had the most exciting 1v1 match at the end of the 200+15 of my life. It must have went about 50 hands 1v1 at the 300/600 blind level 9. I ended up winning, but that's not the point. An interesting hand was this one. I'm in the BB and he minraises. I see 76o and decide that I wanted to see the flop and if I dont hit, I'll get out. Well the flop comes 997. He's been raising with mostly overcards so I figure I'm all set to go. I raise all in and he calls for 4000 with AJo. Next 2 cards are 8d 8c... my 2 pair is counterfeited and his Ace high is good. I was down to 180 chips. i doubled up about 4 times in a row with some Ace high action which was nice. We're about even and I go for the blind steal w/ J3s.. He calls the all-in with AKo. I catch a 3 and MHIG! I was unable to finish him off immediately. He raised all in for 800 off of the SB and I called with 26s. His hand is good. Next hand, I have AKs. I raise all in and he calls with J10. He catches the King high straight. We're back to about 5k/5k. We mess around for a bit until I try and steal with J8s. I catch my flush and the tourney is over. God.. that was intense. I need to see a few more flops w/ out the all in status during 1v1. My strategy of pushing preflop with any decent hand doesn't work too well and results in huge variance and a lot of heartache.

I have the patience to beat the SnGs, but I need to make wiser decisions on the bubble. I don't think any of the 4th or 5th place finishes were due to me waiting for a hand to attack with and not getting one - I.E. getting blinded out. I'm so scared of that happening that I go on the offensive and knock myself off with all in blind steals from hands like AXo KT and the likes. If I want to start getting a positive ROI, I need to change that... FAST.

I played with Zeejustin in one tournament and doubled up quickly with a Ace High flush against someones J6 who spiked 3 6s on the flop. Instead of guarding my stack, I let it dwindle and Justin stole a few hundred chips from me on a re-raise when I had middle pair on the flop. He could smell the weakness I'm guessing. If you'd be so obliged justin to tell me what you had if you had a wired pair, I'd appreciate it.

Going to keep on grinding though and working on the bubble skills. I want to become a real SNG pro but I think I've overestimated my skills. I normally play like 1 200+15 every 2 days or so and end up doing pretty well. It's different when you start to play against that quality opposition every single time and instead of playing the A game that you need to beat them, you end up treating it like another 10+1 SNG and get smoked.

Anyways, time to go back to the grind. Hopefully I'll be able to level my focus and grind in some more ITM. Once I'm ITM, I tend to do pretty well for myself but I hate more than anything going out on the bubble. Before that win.. I had 4 places in a row on the bubble. It's not a very pretty sight.

If you have any comments or suggestions, please feel free to add them. My total goal over 200 SNGs is to get a 50% ROI which is very high but I believe that without enough concentration and improvement, it's a very attainable task.

- Frogger

eastbay
07-17-2004, 02:06 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm.. I'm not doing so hot around the bubble. here are some results that will show you why.

200+15
1: 1
2: 0
3: 1
4: 3
5: 2
6: 0
7: 1
8: 0
9: 0
10: 0

A lot of the 4/5s are due to going all in on draws. I've got to stop being willing to call an all-in on the flop with 4 to a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, if you're doing that, you don't belong anywhere near these stakes. You should have outgrown that before getting to $20+2.

eastbay

guppy
07-17-2004, 02:49 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A lot of the 4/5s are due to going all in on draws. I've got to stop being willing to call an all-in on the flop with 4 to a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, if you're doing that, you don't belong anywhere near these stakes. You should have outgrown that before getting to $20+2.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is that a blanket statement? On the flop you are less than 2-1 against TPTK (better with overcards) or 3-1 against a set, so surely you have to be willing to call at least pot-sized all-in bets with a 4-flush? (If you can't push first.)

Frogger
07-17-2004, 02:52 AM
God.. I hate myself.. Another 4th place finish in a 200+15

and another 4th in a 100+9. I had 73 and flop came 745. I raised all in and the chipleader calls with A9... Catches ace of the river.. 4 left in a 200+15 now.. wish me luck

Frogger
07-17-2004, 02:54 AM
Woo Hoo! Got 3rd in this one.. QQ lost to 2 Pair 54. Hopefully I'll double up and take 2nd

Frogger
07-17-2004, 03:45 AM
Results update:

200+15
1: 1
2: 1
3: 2
4: 4
5: 2
6: 0
7: 1
8: 0
9: 0
10: 0

ITM 37%
ROI 1.47%

Heart Failures: 3
.

Frogger
07-17-2004, 04:51 AM
200+15
1: 1
2: 1
3: 3
4: 4
5: 2
6: 0
7: 1
8: 0
9: 0
10: 0

ITM 42%
ROI 8.47%

Heart Failures: 3

Frogger
07-17-2004, 07:01 AM
Played 8 50+5 SnGs 4 at a time.. Here are the results:

1: 0
2: 3
3: 0
4: 1
5: 1
6: 1
7: 1
8: 0
9: 1
10: 0

The 9th was when my QQ all in preflop lost to a 99.. I caught a set but he caught a straight king high.

That's a 37.5% itm... what's the ROI though you might ask! 10$ profit.. means 1.25 per sng. That's a whopping 2.3% ROI omg! I am amazing. God do I suck.

eastbay
07-17-2004, 12:22 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A lot of the 4/5s are due to going all in on draws. I've got to stop being willing to call an all-in on the flop with 4 to a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, if you're doing that, you don't belong anywhere near these stakes. You should have outgrown that before getting to $20+2.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is that a blanket statement? On the flop you are less than 2-1 against TPTK (better with overcards) or 3-1 against a set, so surely you have to be willing to call at least pot-sized all-in bets with a 4-flush? (If you can't push first.)

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but it's pretty close. all-in could be 5 more chips in a pot of 1500, in which case you clearly call. But calling for all your chips in marginal situations is bad play, much less calling for all your chips as a dog, which is the common case.

eastbay

Tosh
07-17-2004, 12:27 PM
[ QUOTE ]

That's a 37.5% itm... what's the ROI though you might ask! 10$ profit.. means 1.25 per sng. That's a whopping 2.3% ROI omg! I am amazing. God do I suck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Either that or you're not ready for these games.

Prickly Pete
07-17-2004, 01:02 PM
[ QUOTE ]
My total goal over 200 SNGs is to get a 50% ROI which is very high but I believe that without enough concentration and improvement, it's a very attainable task.

[/ QUOTE ]

That goal is not even close to achievable, at least not in the long term. Hope for 20%.

stupidsucker
07-17-2004, 02:45 PM
I consider myself a good SnG player.

I back it up with about 700 logged SnGs at the 10-30 level with an average roi of 30%(the most recent is 36% on my last 130 20's)

But on to the point...

How many SnGs have you played Frogger? I think you are lucky to have made money in these 200's so far. I wouldnt dare move up to the 200's now even if I had the bankroll for it. Have you played at least 500 at the 30's? or even 50's yet?

Do as you want, but I think that is a great idea to work yourself up the ranks. The main reason is just for a slower adjusting time. The 200's are a different game then the 10's-30's. If you move up slower, I think you may give yourself a better adjustment period.

I commend your stab at it, and I hope all goes well for you. It is my recomendation that you play about 300-500 of the 50's then try the 100's, THEN go to the 200's. Your bankroll might thank you for it.

And honestly.. If you are calling all ins with a flush draw then the others are right.... the 200's are not the place for you. I am not poking fun, just trying to help.

Frogger
07-18-2004, 12:32 AM
I don't think calling an all in with 4 to a flush on the flop and 2 overcards is a bad move depending upon how shortstacked you are. I believe that you are right, i'm not really ready for these 200+15s.. The thing was.. I had grandeurs of illusion.. or something.

I played about 12 200+15s before I started the quest in my total career. I had 5.. YES COUNT THEM 5 First Places.. 2 seconds and 2 thirds. I thought I was absolutely invincible. I would use the 200+15 as a desperation move when my BR needed a boost up from losses in MTTs or Ring Games.

I figured I would step into the arena permanently if I could thrash the SNGs for over a 100% ROI. I have the skills to beat these and the patience, just not enough experienced.

I played my last 4 200+15s today.. Same results. 4th, 4th, 5th, 8th (I outlasted Zeejustin!)... Too many damn 4ths is a result of lack of experience on the bubble.

I've played about maybe 150 SNGs total in my life.. Probably a bit more at the 10+1 and 5+1 level when I was a Freshmen in high school.

I think your advice on sticking to the 50+5s for awhile is solid. My dad was also lambasting me for wasting away over 30% of my bankroll.. I didn't lose the money in the 200+15s mostly.. I lost them in the 100+9s which I would play simultaneously at some points.

From now on, I think 1 sng at a time is a must.

Frogger
07-18-2004, 12:40 AM
Here are my final results from the last of the 200+15s I will be playing until I play at least 100 of each the 50+5 and 100+9s. I didn't too too badly.. I was on the bubble SO often - I just needed to capitalize but I think party of it was that the stacks were so high I couldn't make the proper gamble or coinflips because the money affected my decision making.

200+15
1: 1
2: 1
3: 3
4: 6
5: 3
6: 0
7: 1
8: 0
9: 1
10: 0

ITM 31.25%
ROI -18.6%
Bubble Outs (4/5th - 56.25%)

Here's a hypothetical.. If I had managed to finish in 3rd in 4 of those bubbles, I would have had a nice ROI because I would have survived the coinflip or whatever that knocked me out and had a decent chance at winning.

SumZero
07-18-2004, 03:26 AM
"Here's a hypothetical.. If I had managed to finish in 3rd in 4 of those bubbles, I would have had a nice ROI because I would have survived the coinflip or whatever that knocked me out and had a decent chance at winning."

Danger, Will Robinson. That is very dangerous thinking. While if you suffered more than your fair share of bad beats and bad luck and actually are better than the game this may be true. But it may also be the case that you are taking too many coin flips and losing for that reason. Or to put it another way, your ROI would be even worse if you just take 3 of those in the monies and replace them with bubbles. And people are very bad at self assessment in figuring out if the monies -> bubbles is more or less likely than the bubbles -> money.