That's Mister Fish to You : QJs in the BB

[GuyOnTilt]

Party's 15/30, 9-handed. I'm in the BB with Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. One player fold to a really loose, fishy calling-station of a UTG+1 who limps. A solid EMP who's a regular at the 15 raises, folded to a loose/passive CO calls, an unknown Button calls, and the SB folds. I call, EP calls. 5 to the flop for 10.6 SB's.

Flop comes: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

It's checked to EMP who bets. He would not do this with an underpair. The CO raises, Button 3-bets. I call. EP folds, EMP caps it and we all call, and the CO calls. 4 to the turn for 11.3 BB's.

Turn comes: 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I check, EMP checks, CO checks, Button bets. I call, EMP raises. CO drops, Button 3-bets, I call, EMP caps, we call. 3 to the river for 23.3 BB's.

Let's just stop right there for now, 'cause I have a couple questions. First, the obvious. I can't remember the last time I called 3 bets cold, and I certainly have never done it on a gutshot before. How good or bad was my call here and is it even close? Second, what range of hands do you put EMP and the Button on after the turn with percentages.

GoT

[soda]

I don't like to quantify things, so I'll just say that your flop call is very bad. I'd say, given the action, you are highly likely to see a cap here. So, calling three bets here cold is more like calling 3.75 or so because it will be capped more than half the time, IMO.

A gutshot is 11.5 to one against roughly so you would need over 40 small bets to make this call worthwhile, not counting implied odds yet. Also, your backdoor flush draw can be counted as 2 additional outs. A six outer is almost 8:1, but your outs are tainted by the huge action - if the board pairs with a diamond, you could easily be drawing dead.

I don't like the flop call at all, you are losing money here for sure.

Set over set is possible, AK possible, really any two pair hands are possible, even K7s, which brings the possibility of Kd7d. Range of hands for you doesn't really matter in this hand as you are drawing to the nuts with the gutshot and second nut with the flush. I'm not a percentages guy, sorry.

soda

[SA125]

I agree with soda. Well said. The backdoor fl increases the odds, but enough to call 3 cold to that board and action?

[AJo Go All In]

what percentage of your posts are along the lines of "watch me call a million bets with a longshot draw that you weak-tighties would fold, because really the pot is big enough that i am making money on it"?

[cero_z]

Hi GoT,
Not sure if this is a serious question, or you're just proud of gambling it up. Assuming you're not just wasting our time, let's look at your draws.

You're getting about 17 to 3 when the button 3-bets, with expectations of it being capped and called through, meaning 23 to 4 on the flop. So, your 11 to 1 gut-shot odds are short by about half. You have a backdoor flush draw, but it's not to the nuts, and some of your outs should probably be discounted due to the likely presence of 2 pair or a set. In short, your flop call was bad.

On the turn, you obviously must call, with 10 outs to the nuts or damn close.

[J_V]

Dude, what the F@#$ are you doing?

[Schneids]

I make plenty of crazyish flop calls but I've never done something this absurd.

I don't care if your two opponents have AA and KK I really doubt you'll win enough bets the occasional times you catch running diamonds or hit your gutshot.

[cero_z]

Hi GoT,
I'm changing my answer, I think. This is not as cut and dried as it seemed at first glance. If your hand stood up, you'd need to collect 5 more big bets to make it worthwhile, and it seems plausible that you'll actually get 7 or more.

But, your hand may not stand up. So, there's some math involved, and it's too early to do math. But, if it's wrong, it's not terrible to call on the flop.

[1800GAMBLER]

Call and it's not close.

At best you are getting 3:19 when it doesn't get capped, making your backdoor flush worth 2 outs (probability of hitting it is 1/5 * 1/5 = 1/25 meaning 24:1. as a percentage, 4%. In a deck of 47 unseen cards 1 out is 46:1 or 2.2% meaning the backdoor flush is worth 1.8 outs) puts you on a ~7:1 shot, I think you just might get that 1BB in over the next two streets.

At most likely you are getting 4:22 needed to get 3BBs in over the next two streets. Easy.

GoT has a huge overlay when it doesn't get capped and a nice overlay when it does, which will easily overcome the times AA KK (not reason at all to believe they are out there when it comes 3 bets cold to GoT) or 77 (no reason to fear that either). Since they have a 3.5:1 redraw on him.

[1800GAMBLER]

I gave the backdoor flush 2 outs, since the percentage for hitting the flush is over the whole hand, it should only be 1 out. You are on a 8.4:1 shot. So you need 2bbs in none capped and 6bbs in when capped.

Another way to nitpick this is i'm using implied odds on the 1 out from the backdoor flush which strictly isn't true, i'd have to do sperate EV calcs and weight them with their implied odds, that's too long for me to care to do. If it seemed closer i would.

edit: infact that's not really a nitpick. It does make the decision closer. yet it's still a call, but it's close.

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
Second, what range of hands do you put EMP and the Button on after the turn with percentages.

[/ QUOTE ]

irrelanvent now. with that much action on the turn, i wouldn't even care anymore...

[GuyOnTilt]

I was in a bit of a rush last night when I made my original post to get out of the office and in my haste made a mistake on the action. My bad. On the flop, EMP did not cap. He just called the 3-bet and so did the CO. EMP then check-raised the turn. Sorry about that...

GoT

[The Dude]

Gambler,

I'm glad you took time to think about the hand before you posted. When GoT called me and we talked about this hand, my first reaction was "very bad." So he asked me to quantify how many bets he was losing on his flop call. We did the math, talked about likely future action, and I changed my mind.

As crazy as the call looks on the flop, it' fine. It sure does feel wierd, though.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
irrelanvent now. with that much action on the turn, i wouldn't even care anymore...

[/ QUOTE ]
EEEHHHH. Wrong answer.

[Schneids]

I don't think the math is as easy as you'd like it to be because of the times Guy hits a flush draw on the turn, has to put in 4 bets to see the river, and then folds when he misses the river. Plus you have to factor in the times Guy makes a straight or flush, and someone else makes a boat. Even in the turn situation Guy faces in this hand, his turn call itself is -EV due to the amount of outs he has (I presume 10) and the number of opponents still in. So in addition to 8.2BB's or so he'll have to make up from his flop call (he put in 1.5BB on the flop, we'll say it's about 10:1 his hand hits, so he has to make at least 15BB's from the flop call, of which there were 7.8BB in the pot already not from his flop call (pot size based on his corrected info)), there'll be another BB or two for the turn call he has to make up (do not wish to figure out the exact total because quite frankly the point is about to come... and before it's asked, since we already used the preflop action in weighting towards his flop call, we cannot use the pot size again to give added weight to the turn call).

So the times he when he hits on the river, with only two opponents in, the best he can net himself is +8BB on the river. That doesn't cut it.


Someone correct me if I'm wrong (very possible), but I based my math here on how Ulysses calculated the correctness of my call in a similar type of hand here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=827702&page=&view=&sb=5&o =&fpart=1&vc=1)

The point is that you aren't making up enough BB's the times you hit, based on the amount of money you put in on the flop to chase as a 10:1 draw

[Schneids]

Me and GoT figured out why my math shows differences from others and the only difference is in the assessing off his drawing odds. He used 8.5:1, I used 10:1. When using 8.5:1 I come up with him needing to make up 4.3BB on his call. I guess it is a matter of how large you weight his running diamond flush before taking off some points for the possibility of hitting a hand but still losing to a boat.

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Gambler,

Looks like we're outnumbered here, everybody:3. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

At the time of the hand, I wasn't really sure if my call was +EV or not to tell the truth. When it was 3 bets to me, my first thought was, "Well, there goes that..." But I quickly did the mental math and started to think it might be close, and the more and more I thought about it, the more I thought I might actually have a call there. So I called. Now that I've had the time to run some numbers, I really do think my call was correct.

First, I think your numbers are a little too liberal and make my situation look a LITTLE bit better than it actually is. So it's 3 bets to me on the flop and there were 10.6 SB's in the pot before the flop. Let's say EMP will cap here 40% of the time, so I'm being asked to call 3.4 SB's here getting 10.6 preflop + 3.4 x 3 opponents, which is 20.8:3.5, or just over 6:1. So I'm getting just better than 6:1 on my call. Now for outs... I have my 4 gutshot outs plus 1.8 for the backdoor flush for a total of 5.8. But sometimes my opponents will have sets or two pair and I'll be beaten even when I do hit about 25% of the time. But they won't always have these hands, so let's say 20%. So take away 20% of my 5.8 outs and we're left with 4.6 (Note I'm always rounding down). So I have 4.6 outs, which is about a 8.5:1 shot with me getting 6:1 on my call. So I'd have to be able to make up more than 2.5 times what I invested on the flop on average to make my call profitable. 2.5 x 3.4 = 8.5 SB's or 4.25 BB's. I don't think it's defensible that I won't be able to make that up on the turn and river should I hit.

So anybody want to make it Everybody:4? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

GoT

[GuyOnTilt]

what percentage of your posts are along the lines of "watch me call a million bets with a longshot draw that you weak-tighties would fold, because really the pot is big enough that i am making money on it"?

That's not really my MO actually...I'm the guy who folds way more than everybody else, which is why this hand was really weird feeling.

GoT

[HiatusOver]

GOT, I think you are a good poster, BUT I must admit that my first thought when reading your new post was also along the lines of...what percentage of this guys posts are along the lines of "watch me call a million bets with a longshot draw"

[GuyOnTilt]

I don't think the math is as easy as you'd like it to be because of the times Guy hits a flush draw on the turn, has to put in 4 bets to see the river, and then folds when he misses the river.

I guess I didn't really factor that in when I did my above calculations. So let's say the turn is capped when I pick up a diamond, as was the case. There's going to be somewhere between 2 and 3 opponents when this happens, so let's be conservative and say on average there will be 2.25. I picked up a diamond, so I have 7 clean diamond outs and 3 more gutshot outs with 44 unknowns, so I have a 1/4.4 share of every turn bet, or .227 and there are 4 bets x 3.25 players = 13 bets going in on the turn on average. So my equity out of those 13 is about 3, and I put in 4, so I lost 1 BB on that street. Worst case scenario, there's 2 opponents and I lost about 1.3 BB's. So add that to the amount I need to be able to make up. I still have a call.

GoT

[The Dude]

No need to feel bad admitting it. When he first called me to talk about the hand, I said to myself "Oh my God." And I've played with him enough to KNOW how good he is.

At first glance, this looks like the mother of all sucker plays. I mean, how calling station can it get, right? But when you look at the intricacies of the hand, amazingly enough calling is correct.

There's more fun to this hand, hopefully GoT doesn't stop here.

[J.R.]

But sometimes my opponents will have sets or two pair and I'll be beaten even when I do hit about 25% of the time. But they won't always have these hands, so let's say 20%. So take away 20% of my 5.8 outs and we're left with 4.6 (Note I'm always rounding down).

In addition to discounting the number of your outs you have because you will hit and loose to a full house 20% of the time, don't you also have also have to acccount for the post-flop bets you lose on the turn and river when you make your straight or flush and lose?

If you lose 20% of the time you hit and end up putting in 4 big bets on the turn and river when you hit and lose, I think you will need to win more than 5.25 big bets postflop every time you hit and win to make up for the times you hit and lose.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
don't you also have also have to acccount for the post-flop bets you lose on the turn and river when you make your straight or flush and lose?

[/ QUOTE ]
The river action on this hand is relevant to the point you are trying to make.

[GuyOnTilt]

The river action on this hand is relevant to the point you are trying to make.

Hey, who's hand is this anyway? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

GoT

[The Dude]

Shut the f*ck up, Donny.

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey JR,

In addition to discounting the number of your outs you have because you will hit and loose to a full house 20% of the time, don't you also have also have to acccount for the post-flop bets you lose on the turn and river when you make your straight or flush and lose?

No. I calculated the odds I need to see the turn card alone and, as you mentioned, discounted outs for that possibility. On the turn, if I catch my gutshot and it gets capped, I'm going to be making bets, not losing them. The fact that I might be counterfeited on the river doesn't affect the odds/math of my flop call (which was calculated to reflect ONLY whether I can draw to the turn card). I might have to calculate reverse implied odds for the river, where I actually could be putting in a bet when I'm behind, but that has no bearing on bets put in by me on the turn. And since I can't see myself putting in more than one bet on the river if it pairs, which will happen less than 25% of the time one of my opponents does have a set, I don't even have .25 BB's in reverse implied odds.

If you lose 20% of the time you hit and end up putting in 4 big bets on the turn and river when you hit and lose, I think you will need to win more than 5.25 big bets postflop every time you hit and win to make up for the times you hit and lose.

Yes, but less than .25 BB's more.

GoT

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think the math is as easy as you'd like it to be because of the times Guy hits a flush draw on the turn, has to put in 4 bets to see the river

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll try to say this without sounding like a total ass. Your logical is paranoid, you are trying to find the worst case, i don't know why and i doubt you do, but you are. If GoT has to put 4BBs in to see the river when he hits a flush draw that means he gets 8BBs in when he hits his straight.

[ QUOTE ]
Plus you have to factor in the times Guy makes a straight or flush, and someone else makes a boat

[/ QUOTE ]

GoT will never ever hit and straight when someone makes a boat. They will have a redraw, but my math accounted for that. Moreso, go back to the action and tell me what percentage of the time you really consider whatever player to have a set.

[ QUOTE ]
Even in the turn situation Guy faces in this hand, his turn call itself is -EV

[/ QUOTE ]

No way. When GoT picks up the flush draw this decision is hugely +EV, with the number of players in he may actually even have overlay on the turn!

re GoT:

[ QUOTE ]
At the time of the hand, I wasn't really sure if my call was +EV or not to tell the truth. When it was 3 bets to me, my first thought was, "Well, there goes that..."

[/ QUOTE ]

In the hand i know i would fold this, not because i believe it was -EV but i just wouldn't work it out on time or care to spend 30 seconds on it, i'm so sloppy in games when it comes to this. Hence the reason i spent 1 hour editing/rethinking/factoring issues into my reply here. Eventually i'll be faster/care more to do them at the table.

[ QUOTE ]
But sometimes my opponents will have sets or two pair and I'll be beaten even when I do hit about 25% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

That estimate is way way over. Firstly the PFR only bet the flop, he hasn't 3 bet at all yet. You can't even factor out AJ, secondly no way are any of these players playing a set so fast.

Anyhow, re: this post. I've got a growing trend in your posts that i don't like, don't take huge offence it's just me, i take AJo line on your posts. When i first read the post i thought 'wah hey, this one will be easy to show he's just being smug.' So i started out to prove it's bad. Yet when i ran the math i just couldn't, the call is very very correct.

[ QUOTE ]
In addition to discounting the number of your outs you have because you will hit and loose to a full house 20% of the time, don't you also have also have to acccount for the post-flop bets you lose on the turn and river when you make your straight or flush and lose?

[/ QUOTE ]

I edited my post about 6 times. At first i included a big redraw on GoT, no backdoor flush outs and his awful postion. It was an awful call then. Then i worked out how much his backdoor outs are worth, it become close. Then i worked out the % his opponens actually have a big redraw and it wasn't close.

20% is just way way too high. For it to be 20% you are assuming his opponents have a set 100% of the time, nowhere near true.

Good thread.

[1800GAMBLER]

The psychology of this thread really interests me. It's so easy to apply the standard rule of 'gutshots bad' and then conclude your thoughts at that/convince yourself yet it's tough to think differently. The proof is shown in the people who said calling is bad have given limited reasons.

When i read anything by Clark or Ed i'm so shocked at how they can sperate themselves from common knowledge/text book writing and go for the honest line. Disagreeing with yourself is a tough experience yet i think to reach the very top it's a must. Dr Al writes about it in his 'Running bad' post on cardplayer. I'm far from it /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[J_V]

learn something knew everyday I guess.

[Schneids]

Would this hand basically show in a game where people typically play a little too aggressive and call a little too often (such as Party 15/30), it might be correct to call a gutshot on the flop with pot odds as low as 6:1 or 5.5:1 or so, if your call is for one bet?

[J_V]

Shame on me.

Insert Oscar Wilde quote on complacency.

[1800GAMBLER]

It's totally situational. There are too many factors like how many players are in, what their action was, their most likely hands, if you are closing the action, etc etc.

This hand is pretty pointless though. The EV of the call is at best slim, this situation will also come up very rarely. While it will help in a general sense it's not huge. Even though i now know this is a call it would be so hard for me to accurately work it out in the hand.

So it's worthless yet it's the best part of my poker /images/graemlins/frown.gif since i spent most time studying this because of playing NL. It's kinda like KQo UTG. You can spend ages analysing it yet there are millions of more important questions in the game.

[The Dude]

So, uh... how 'bout the rest of the hand.

[1800GAMBLER]

It's just funny if he missed now.

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]
go back to the action and tell me what percentage of the time you really consider whatever player to have a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to hero the PFR needs an ace or better to bet out. That's a lot of action on a rainbow A-high board where the first bet comes from the PFR and is known to imply strength. The fact that the diamond is the ace also hurts the hand's value. Calling this a 5-out hand is folly even against chimps.

[1800GAMBLER]

AJ AQ AK AA KK. A set is 33:6. Or 5.5:1. Meaning we run into a fullhouse 1/6.5 * 1/4.4 = 3.5% of the time, call it 5% for when AK improves too, no worries. The other players probably don't know his bet means at least top pair, moreso it's still very very unlikely they have a set here. Also given the action it's unlikey any players have Kxs.

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]
AJ AQ AK AA KK. A set is 33:6. Or 5.5:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Presumably, you are only enumerating the PFR, in which case you need to include 77. And 77 is a setmaker that also fits in the cold callers hands. Very unlikely for a coldcaller to have AA or KK in this spot, but not unheard of. Two pair and AcXc and AsXs in anyone's hand reduces the strength of the draw as well. I think you've done a great job even to get me to take a second look here.

[GuyOnTilt]

So in review, I have Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Turn comes: 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif[A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif]

I check, solid PF raiser checks, CO checks, Button bets. I call, PFR check-raises, CO drops. Button 3-bets, I call, PFR caps, we both call. 3 to the turn for 23.3 BB's.

River comes: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I check, PFR bets, Button calls. I sigh, shrug, fold.

GoT

[potato]

!!!

[1800GAMBLER]

There's no way the coldcallers are playing 77 so fast on the flop. It's just so rare again.

[Michael Davis]

I don't know. You say you can't work it out on the spot, but I think you have a pretty good grasp of these things. You were one of the only people who would not have advocated folding in my last two threads, I think, and if you weren't right in either of them, it was at least marginal enough that the outright "this flop call is terrible" comments were brought into question. Same thing in this thread.

-Michael

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
!!!

[/ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[J.R.]

Maybe I didn't say it well, but my point was that when you catch your gutshot on the turn, you will still lose maybe 20% of the time. So while you are making bets when it gets capped on the turn, you don't have 100% equity, only 80%.

You do need to average making 4.25 bets postflop when you turn your gutshot for the flop call to be profitable, but because you will lose 1/5th of the time when you make you gutshot (and therefore lose bets on the turn and river), you need to win more than 4.25 bets the times you hit your gutshot and it holds up (probably around 5 bets)* to make up for the turn and river bets you will lose 1/5th of the time when you are outdrawn on the river.

Not that this means you flop call is bad or wrong, I just think you might be underestimating the number of bets you need to collect on the turn and river to ensure the profitability of your flop call (although the difference isn't great).

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey JR,

You do need to average making 4.25 bets postflop when you turn your gutshot for the flop call to be profitable, but because you will lose 1/5th of the time when you make you gutshot (and therefore lose bets on the turn and river), you need to win more than 4.25 bets the times you hit your gutshot and it holds up (probably around 5 bets)* to make up for the turn and river bets you will lose 1/5th of the time when you are outdrawn on the river.

I already took this into consideration into my initial calculations. I multiplied my estimated outs by .8 for this very reason.

I have my 4 gutshot outs plus 1.8 for the backdoor flush for a total of 5.8. But sometimes my opponents will have sets or two pair and I'll be beaten even when I do hit about 25% of the time. But they won't always have these hands, so let's say 20%. So take away 20% of my 5.8 outs and we're left with 4.6 (Note I'm always rounding down).

GoT

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
River comes: K

I check, PFR bets, Button calls. I sigh, shrug, fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't that what they call a teaser card?

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
So in review, I have Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Turn comes: 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif[A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif]

I check, solid PF raiser checks, CO checks, Button bets. I call, PFR check-raises, CO drops. Button 3-bets, I call, PFR caps, we both call. 3 to the turn for 23.3 BB's.

River comes: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I check, PFR bets, Button calls. I sigh, shrug, fold.

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

All that to fold for one more bet on the river? Shame on you.

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
So in review, I have Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Turn comes: 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif[A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif]

I check, solid PF raiser checks, CO checks, Button bets. I call, PFR check-raises, CO drops. Button 3-bets, I call, PFR caps, we both call. 3 to the turn for 23.3 BB's.

River comes: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I check, PFR bets, Button calls. I sigh, shrug, fold.

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

All that to fold for one more bet on the river? Ok. I woulda called...then again I suck /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
But they won't always have these hands, so let's say 20%.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it's 20%, isn't it 9:1, not 8.5:1? I didn't count the bets, but I'll assume Jay's right and you're either 19:3 or 22:4 depending on if it gets capped. That means you'll need 4BB or 7BB. I think capped is about 2/3 as likely as not, so that would make it 6BB. I don't agree that this is an easy call in this spot. It's close, though, and if 20% is overly conservative given your opponents, then it becomes more attractive. But I think people are being overly optimistic when claiming this is an easy and obvious clear call.

[1800GAMBLER]

How is 6bbs tough over the next two streets?

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

River comes: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I check, PFR bets, Button calls. I sigh, shrug, fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

I am just learning limit poker. I have a post-it note on my monitor for times when I don't know what to do. It says

On the flop: fold.
On the river: call.

I just knew my post-it wouldn't be right all the time.

Guy.

(I'm not on tilt, I just suck.)

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
All that to fold for one more bet on the river? Shame on you

[/ QUOTE ]

you do know that this is the worst card in the deck for him, right?

[bicyclekick]

Yes, I know that and after I posted it I decided I could live with the flold a little better - so that's why I changed my post, I meant to edit but it came through anyhow.

[tpir90036]

the problem with the math in this hand on the flop is that your implied odds might be overshadowed by the effective odds of seeing the hand through to the river. it could very well get jammed up on the turn (which it did) making those backdoor outs very expensive. not sure how exactly that affects things as far as swinging it one way or the other without doing the math....

anyway, i don't disagree with the line of thinking and don't think it was a huge mistake either way, but i certainly don't see how it's an easy call. in the heat of the moment i think that calling 3 cold would have made me turn green in a non-envious sort of way.

hope you took it down,
-tpir

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Tpir,

The problem with the math in this hand on the flop is that your implied odds might be overshadowed by the effective odds of seeing the hand through to the river.

Reread through the math in this thread and you'll see that this isn't the case. Your logic is flawed.

anyway, i don't disagree with the line of thinking and don't think it was a huge mistake either way, but i certainly don't see how it's an easy call.

It's not an easy call; it's a really weird-feeling call that doesn't feel normal at all. But it's still a correct call.

GoT

[Tosh]

I like this post. I can't see myself ever making it though without pausing the game while I get out a pen & paper and calculate whether its correct.

[tpir90036]

GoT,

thanks for the response. i don't disagree with the flop call. i went through the math and it all looks good.

although i do wonder how the hand plays out if the turn is the 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif and you are getting immediate odds (or close to it) at every chance but before you know it you have invested 3BB to win 22. not nitpicking....just curious.

very interesting post. good thread.

-tpir

[DcifrThs]

uh, ok...

i'd like your flop call more if you reraised from the BB and built a huge pot or something...but otherwise your flop mistake is pretty good...better to take advantage of some odds you KNOW you'll get preflop when you may or may not be that big a dog after the flop and just play normally after that...

plus it'll throw a bunch of people (especially that regular) off if they notice. since they normally see you as dr. tight i'm sure this would do something...but probably more effective in a perfectly suited much higher limit game where everyone's paying attention.

oh well...flop call=big mistake imo.

you need to ASSURADLY get 21 smallbets or 10.5 bbs on the turn and river to make this possible getting an all tolled 19:4 on the flop when you need 43.06:4 to call and be ahead by the turn. you will only be AHEAD while getting those bets 8.5% of the time on the turn or 10.765:1 for you're "draw." the other 89.235% of the time you end up losing 4 bets needlessly plus the bets you have to put in on the turn when drawing live to the flush and tims you make your hand on the turn and lose on the river when the board pairs. now count in you're backdoor flush draw (NO PAIRING! you are almost 100% of the time here dead if the board pairs) of only 7 outs and its a rough spot...i did the math taking into account the board NOT pairing and it comes out to you will WIN the pot 9.7% of the time by the river. you're getting an immediate 19:4 but if the T doesn't come on the turn its a different story entirely b/c now you have to look at it in terms of effective odds instead of immediate odds. THEN you also have to subtract 4+X(where X is whatever it costs on teh turn to draw, likely 2 or 3 bets when the T doesn't hit) times the probability of NOT getting there from whatever bets you win or earn when behind on the turn (which will happen 91.5% of the time). now you have to make up THOSE LOST BETS in addition to whatever bets you make up to break even those theoretical times you win the pot...

c'mon GoT, you can save more money than this....i mean, are you really hurting that bad in terms of BB/hour (in your mind as i'm sure you do quite well in these games) that you'll do anything to get ahead in the short-term including costing yourself a large amount of your edge?

wierd.

-Barron

[GuyOnTilt]

oh well...flop call=big mistake imo.

you need to ASSURADLY get 21 smallbets or 10.5 bbs on the turn and river

Did you even read through this thread???

GoT

[DcifrThs]

i took a more worst case scenario always capped always facing a set from 1 opponent and got that the call is -EV. yea its "close" in the sense that assumptions can change your action but its basically a whats gunna happen type of thing where its uncertain things will pan out and since its sometimes negative EV you should just pick a better spot...also, YOU CANNOT use the preflop and flop call to justify the call on the turn since that money was accounted for on the flop and effective odds are what you need to look at.

in any case, i don't think you're that desperate to try to squeek out a positive ev situation of this magnitude (or lack thereof) and add it to your party bb/100 hands...is 2.504 really that much better than 2.50 when you factor in the risk (ok ok exageration, but you get my point)

fold.

-Barron

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
oh well...flop call=big mistake imo.

you need to ASSURADLY get 21 smallbets or 10.5 bbs on the turn and river

Did you even read through this thread???

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

no, i responded first and then read it through as i always do...read my other responses.

my saying "big mistake" was a big mistake...but coincidenatlly my conclusion is STILL fold.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But they won't always have these hands, so let's say 20%.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it's 20%, isn't it 9:1, not 8.5:1? I didn't count the bets, but I'll assume Jay's right and you're either 19:3 or 22:4 depending on if it gets capped. That means you'll need 4BB or 7BB. I think capped is about 2/3 as likely as not, so that would make it 6BB. I don't agree that this is an easy call in this spot. It's close, though, and if 20% is overly conservative given your opponents, then it becomes more attractive. But I think people are being overly optimistic when claiming this is an easy and obvious clear call.

[/ QUOTE ]

i used doomsday calculations and found the call wrong...its an assumption based call that is correct if GoT's assumptions are correct...he's BETTING on them being correct and this seems quite like fishy gambling (albeit of a sophisticated varitey) to me, when he's right its +EV, when he's wrong its -EV...one hand will never be enough of a sample to prove it and making these calls regularly in different games produce different asymptotic results.

do you see what i mean here...its not that its -EV according to GoT, its that we don't know the TRUE % of the time GoT is correct and using a priori analysis to justify a non apriori call..

theres a term for that fallacious reasoning but i'm drawing a blank.

-Barron

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
i took a more worst case scenario always capped always facing a set from 1 opponent and got that the call is -EV. yea its "close" in the sense that assumptions can change your action but its basically a whats gunna happen type of thing where its uncertain things will pan out and since its sometimes negative EV you should just pick a better spot...

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh man i dislike this on so many levels.

Firstly, why not take the most likely case first? It's not more effort and even if you have to make some assumptions it's going to be more accurate than the worst case.

There's a common trend on this forum in which people are all of a sudden just searching for a quick answer which may be +EV but not max. EV. The other trend is trying to justify something they have always done. Phrases that come to mind are 'the pot is small' 'pick another opportunity', everyone seems to be looking for the worst case all the time, with no second thoughts to the best case.

Saying you are always facing a set is awful. I've included the math in reply to shemp as to why it's very unlikely you are facing a set.

Moreso, in poker if you are unsure about a fold you should pretty much always call. Esp. with the games state at the minute with the poker boom.

[ QUOTE ]
in any case, i don't think you're that desperate to try to squeek out a positive ev situation of this magnitude (or lack thereof) and add it to your party bb/100 hands...is 2.504 really that much better than 2.50 when you factor in the risk (ok ok exageration, but you get my point)

[/ QUOTE ]

While this one decision is almost worthless the knowledge behind it isn't at all. This situation comes up in many many places and being able to quickly weight the number of outs you have and the number of bets you need afterwards is huge. Simple things like you have AJ and get 3 bet then miss the flop become a lot clearer and easier to play and those decisions will very much add to your baseline.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I was in a bit of a rush last night when I made my original post to get out of the office and in my haste made a mistake on the action. My bad. On the flop, EMP did not cap. He just called the 3-bet and so did the CO. EMP then check-raised the turn. Sorry about that...

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe i should start reading the entire thread first b/c i missed this one.

i don't want to go back and redo everything so lets just say im a little less correct in my doomsday assumptions and so on and so forth. i still feel the same way about the call being based on assumptions that may or may not be correct where you just don't know and are eeking out a +EV situation a certain % of the time but can stop the loss by choice on the flop and be 100% certain of making 0 mistakes.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i took a more worst case scenario always capped always facing a set from 1 opponent and got that the call is -EV. yea its "close" in the sense that assumptions can change your action but its basically a whats gunna happen type of thing where its uncertain things will pan out and since its sometimes negative EV you should just pick a better spot...

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh man i dislike this on so many levels.

Firstly, why not take the most likely case first? It's not more effort and even if you have to make some assumptions it's going to be more accurate than the worst case.

There's a common trend on this forum in which people are all of a sudden just searching for a quick answer which may be +EV but not max. EV. The other trend is trying to justify something they have always done. Phrases that come to mind are 'the pot is small' 'pick another opportunity', everyone seems to be looking for the worst case all the time, with no second thoughts to the best case.

Saying you are always facing a set is awful. I've included the math in reply to shemp as to why it's very unlikely you are facing a set.

Moreso, in poker if you are unsure about a fold you should pretty much always call. Esp. with the games state at the minute with the poker boom.

[ QUOTE ]
in any case, i don't think you're that desperate to try to squeek out a positive ev situation of this magnitude (or lack thereof) and add it to your party bb/100 hands...is 2.504 really that much better than 2.50 when you factor in the risk (ok ok exageration, but you get my point)

[/ QUOTE ]

While this one decision is almost worthless the knowledge behind it isn't at all. This situation comes up in many many places and being able to quickly weight the number of outs you have and the number of bets you need afterwards is huge. Simple things like you have AJ and get 3 bet then miss the flop become a lot clearer and easier to play and those decisions will very much add to your baseline.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the last part you wrote was the best and really really comes into play in the higher limit games where small edges really really add up to more absolute money.

i truly felt from first reading this as i stated and see why you dislike it on so many levels. if you're keeping a running tally of the times we disagree and you are correct then you can add this one. i'll let you have it in exchange for a future mea culpa in the future /images/graemlins/wink.gif

all in all its an interesting thread and i used my own philosophy to justify my reasoning when its bets to be 100% objective. thus my own philosophy may need some re-examination relative to the objectivity of these sorts of decisions and should probably be done more carefully than most conduct such decisions on the flop...

i recently saw my friend fold TT on an AKQrb board for 1 bet in a 20/40 game in a raised multiway pot. obviously this is wrong and i told him that...but probably would have scolded him had i known he made GoT's call here. just goes to show that what holds true in one case may not be true in another and that asserting universal philosophy on slightly mathamatically different scenarios is not the correct way to MAXIMIZE ev.

BUT, if you wish to temper you're SD and be a good player and not a "great" player, then doomsday calculations are the way to go...im trying to make that transition in accord with a larger and larger ability to withstand the increased fluctions again.

-Barron

[J.A.Sucker]

Look, the bottom line is that here's a call that most of us say is "horrible" and it turns out to be close (whether you deem it correct or not depends on the mathematical gymnastics that you undertake). This just goes to show you that when the pot is multiway, it's pretty damned tough to make a mistake on the flop. People on this board routinely say how stupid their opponents are, but the fact is, any mistakes that loose players make on the flop are small (or actually not mistakes at all). What can we all learn from this? Just remember that some plays that look wrong may not be so bad, and that's about it.

[1800GAMBLER]

Jerry Jerry Jerry Jerry!

[ArchAngel71857]

[ QUOTE ]
Party's 15/30, 9-handed. I'm in the BB with Q J . One player fold to a really loose, fishy calling-station of a UTG+1 who limps. A solid EMP who's a regular at the 15 raises, folded to a loose/passive CO calls, an unknown Button calls, and the SB folds. I call, EP calls. 5 to the flop for 10.6 SB's.


[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking about this hand on the way to work this morning.

How does your action change on the flop if you put someone on AT?

Does that push this to an easy fold?

-AA