View Full Version : Various Flop Probabilities w/ Suited Connector
Fortitude
07-16-2004, 08:43 PM
Using a suited connector with full range of straight in either direction, 67s for example, what is the probability of the following:
Flopping an open ended straight draw?
Flopping a 4 flush draw?
Flopping an open ended straight draw and flush draw?
Flopping an open ended straight flush draw?
Anything else you feel would be important to know. Maybe pair + other draw, draw + long shot draw, etc.
BruceZ
07-16-2004, 09:33 PM
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Flopping an open ended straight draw?
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9.6%, including the flush draws, pairs, and double gutshots.
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Flopping a 4 flush draw?
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10.76%, including the straight draws, gutshots, and pairs.
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Flopping an open ended straight draw and flush draw?
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1.26%
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Flopping an open ended straight flush draw?
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3*33/C(50,3) = 0.5%.
That is, there are 3 pairs of cards which make the straight flush draw, and the third card cannot be one of the 9 cards that makes a flush, or one of the 6 that makes the straight, so 48-9-6 = 33.
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Anything else you feel would be important to know. Maybe pair + other draw, draw + long shot draw, etc.
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The probability of flopping either a straight draw or a flush draw or both, but not a straight or a flush is 19.1%. This includes pairs. The probability of a flush draw with no straight draw is 9.5%. The probability of a straight draw with no flush draw is 8.36%.
See this post (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=355216&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1) where these are derived different ways.
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