Projections based on mean and SD

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

Is there a relatively easy way using Excel to generate a graph based on likely outcomes with a specific mean and SD? I want to generate a hypothetical graph of my likely next 1,000, 10,000, 100,000 & 1,000,000 hand (just to pick a few random figures), assuming a win rate of 2.64BB/100 hands and a SD of 17.97BB/100 hands, which are my stats over the past 25K hands.

[meep_42]

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Is there a relatively easy way using Excel to generate a graph based on likely outcomes with a specific mean and SD? I want to generate a hypothetical graph of my likely next 1,000, 10,000, 100,000 & 1,000,000 hand (just to pick a few random figures), assuming a win rate of 2.64BB/100 hands and a SD of 17.97BB/100 hands, which are my stats over the past 25K hands.

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Are you sure of your StDev? That's ridiculously high, and doesn't offer much in the way of insight.

If I'm reading this correctly, 68% of the time, you will make/lose between 20.61BB/100 and -15.33BB/100, which I don't think is particularly helpful.

-d

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

That is my SD/100 hands. 17.97

[uuDevil]

It sounds like you want to do what Homer did in his Streaks (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=445039&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1) thread. Unfortunately the links to the chart images are gone, but he described setting up the chart in some detail.

Edit: that SD seems pretty close to a typical value. Mine is 16.6 BB/100 over 5K hands.

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
It sounds like you want to do what Homer did in his Streaks (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=445039&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1) thread. Unfortunately the links to the chart images are gone, but he described setting up the chart in some detail.

Edit: that SD seems pretty close to a typical value. Mine is 16.6 BB/100 over 5K hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Color me wrong, then. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
I'm relatively new to poker-applied statistics.

-d

[pzhon]

I'm not an expert on Excel, but I think there is a tool pack that contains several random number generators. A quick and dirty method would be to produce a random sequence of numbers with the same mean and standard deviation based on the RAND function, which is supposed to produce a uniform distribution from 0 to 1.

2*(RAND()+RAND()+RAND())-3 has mean 0 and standard deviation 1. A*that+B has mean B and standard deviation A.