unexpected river bet

[chezlaw]

paradise $5/$10 5 max

2 unknowns limp to me on the button with 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif I limp along.

SB is a Paradise regular, plays a lot of 5/10, 10/20 and higher. A bit too loose for my tastes but very agressive and tricky.

SB (agressive regular) raises, BB calls, UTG (unknown) 3-bets and we all call.

Flop 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif

SB (agressive regular) checks, BB checks, UTG (unknown) bets, UTG+1 folds, I call, SB (agressive regular) raises, BB calls, UTG (unknown) calls, I 3-bet and they all call.

turn 2/images/graemlins/club.gif

checked to me, I bet and they all call.

river 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB (agressive regular) bets ??, UTG (unknown) calls.

what the heck does that bet mean? I thought for a bit decided the only likely hand was 88, so I just called.

Thoughts on the river and other streets please.

[joeboss]

this is an easy raise on the river. 79 74 (unlikely holdings) and JJ and 88 which i would ecpect a raise preflop are the only hands that beat you. Also i dont like your flop play, as you call then 3 bet screams monster, and on a fairly safe bord like this i like popping them on the turn or fastplaying it on the flop

[SaintAces]

anyways, raise him

[chezlaw]

If my flop 3-bet screams strength then what is he betting on the river?

[chezlaw]

No way he raised from the SB with anything that made him 2 pair. When I said he was a bit loose I didn't mean anything that extreme.

[Schneids]

I am not a fan of your flop 3-bet. If you call there, it's almost 100% SB will bet the turn. Heck, it looks a lot like UTG has AA or KK, and they'll maybe even raise SB's bet on the turn. That'd be fun. Regardless, by just calling the check raise on the flop, I think you can trap some people between you and SB.

Anyway, on the river, I raise. If he has 88 or JJ, godbless his soul.

[Zele]

I also don't like the flop play. I'd almost always raise away here the first time around.

River is probably worth a raise.

[chezlaw]

I don't particularly want to waste time defending my flop 3-bet as I'm not that in love with it myself. I think I was still in shock from limping pre-flop /images/graemlins/blush.gif I may attempt to argue that it isn't so bad later but I'm really trying to understand if and why I should raise the river.

What was going through SB's mind when he bet the river. I struggled to put him on any hands at all, even 88 or JJ didn't seem that likely but were at least plausible. Why would he bet any other hand when he knows it can't win? Am I missing something?

[grinin]

I agree that it looks very weird (like he is trying to trap the players in between for a raise by you). That is why the 6 total combinations of 88 seem to be the only likely holdings. But with the additional players in you have to raise for value.

Oh, yeah, your flop play was horrible.

[chezlaw]

Everyone says raise so I'm probably wrong to just call but I don't understand why?

I've been trying to trust my hand reading more. Assuming my opponent is an experienced and winning 10/20 paradise player then what range of hands would he bet with.

Edit - I think the question I waould appreciate an answer to is: assuming his river bet is +ev then what hands could he hold

As I have to pay off a 3-bet I need to be ahead 50% of the time to make a riase correct (>50% if SB is ready to fold to a raise which must be a possibility.)

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]

What was going through SB's mind when he bet the river. I struggled to put him on any hands at all, even 88 or JJ didn't seem that likely but were at least plausible. Why would he bet any other hand when he knows it can't win? Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

SB is probably most concerned about you. He can potentially see your call reraise as a push for value with a draw (such as 87), when he himself has a hand such as QQ or KK or AJ. He then goes with the flow on the turn to see what develops by check/calling, then bets the river because he is afraid lesser hands you could hold will check it down.

This is one possibility, as I could see AJ, QQ, or KK played this way by a trickyish opponent that talked himself out of thinking you have a true monster.

I think the main point is you have a set and an opponent trapped so raise for value.

[chezlaw]

Thanks, I think you've probably persuaded me although I'm sure he would cap pre-flop with KK.

As for the flop play. The reason I 3-bet was bcause I have found in the past that with flops like this the action often dies on the turn anyway. I don't think SB is anywhere near 100% to bet the turn, if he can't beat a pair of Jacks then he will check and I think the others will likely check as well (thats based on my general read of UTG and UTG+1 which was that they would be passified by SB's flop raise).

On reflection I agree I should have waited for the turn but I think its a lot closer than everyone has suggested.

[Cosimo]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think SB is anywhere near 100% to bet the turn, if he can't beat a pair of Jacks then he will check and I think the others will likely check as well

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you have to weight the chance of it being checked to you on the turn vs the extra 1/2 bet each (plus deception) that calling the flop gets you.

SB check-raises and you did the same. I think the typical player here starts to see monsters when someone else does something strong. His check-call on the turn suggests that he was indeed frightened into passivity.

River comes blank so now he's thinking he needs value for his AJ or overpair.