when to bet middle pair?

[Chiefs Fan]

I have trouble with these types of hands. I have J8o in the BB, no raise PF.

flop comes Q87 rainbow (to make it easier), I have 3 opponents, UTG+1, button and SB.

do I bet out here? check and see what happens? call 1 bet on the flop? fold to a bet? against 1 or 2 opponents, depending on who they are, I would bet out against the right ones.

In this situation against 3 opponents, I may very well have the best hand at this point, but I know I will get called if I bet out, almost always by at least 2 of them, if not all 3.

They routinely play 65 UTG, Q2, whatever.

Typically I would check and fold these types of hands. If I was suited and had a backdoor flush draw I usually check and call.

[naphand]

I am having fun with PokerStove this week, but some of the results seem odd.

PSt says: 2nd-pair on a flop like this, against 3 random hands, has 50% equity. That makes it a bet for sure.

Personally, I bet with 2 or less players, esp. if I think it is likely to get folded. Against 3 you could be ahead, and it seems wrong to fold, but you will be outdrawn/behind too many times to make any profit long-term. I think against these dumbo's you can check and call a bet, and see what the Turn brings.

At $1/$2 you really do not need to push these kinds of hands very hard, as you will make plenty just by playing TP and better. With a 2-suited board and stuck in a tedious game you could try CR, but you need some pretty tight reads on players to make a move like that at this level.

I hate these hands, but I think playing them well, much like overcards, is key to developing a really good win rate (3-4 BB/100). Sometimes I bet them, but memory tells me I feel regret most of the time. Sometimes I will win unconstested, others I will improve. The hands I win unimproved I convince myself my timing was good, but I'm not so sure. PokerStove says go for it, I say play it carefully, but certainly play it against tight players who fold a lot.

PokerStove also says (I'm beginning to think PokerStove is a program written by El Diablo) your equity is 38% with an undercard (like 5) falling, and 34% with an overcard (like K), so it does not even look bad unimproved on the Turn.

Thinking on. Don't these players always call with 2nd-pair? As it is probably good to do anything different than this; sometimes play it like TP, other times play it like a draw. Very game specific; in a tight game, bet out if SB checks, in a loose game check/call, in an aggro game either fold or bet and fold to a raise. I don't think you sacrific much by avoiding these hands in loose/passive games.

[Zele]

I'd often c/r, figuring the button will take a shot and I can hopefully get it HU. If he doesn't, and the board looks favorable, you can bet out the turn. If button bets and SB calls, I'd likely just call the flop too.

If you might be able to fold out the two guys behind you, or any two guys for that matter, a bet is definitely in order.

The biggest mistake would be to passively call to the showdown.

[scooby]

Nice post, especially because I have the same question myself. I generally vary the play...generally split between 50% bet out and 50% c/r, depending on my view of opponents. Obviously, if I can get A8 to fold, I bet out, but knowing that is kind of difficult. One reason I like the flop check is that it lets you get away from putting in a bet and then having it called all the way around, or even raised by the button's 109 or something that you're beating.

Let me pose a question then...flop comes down Q78, you decide to check, and the CO bets, Button calls, SB folds, and you just call. Turn is a 2. What's your plan now?

[Zele]

Very player dependant, but I'd almost never want to continue against two players, so I'd check and fold if CO bet and button called again. If CO checked to button and he bet, I might raise him depending on what I knew about him (and about CO), but I would usually lay it down.

[naphand]

Yes I agree with Zele, the number of opponents is a big factor in deciding whether to continue with this hand. A8o is a much better hand, and may tempt me but a J is just not enough.

I'm glad to see people talking about the CR as a serious option. It is something I have always felt I should be doing, but rarely have unless I have a read on a player and can expect to get it HU. Perhaps I am cured (see my LAGdom post)... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Peter_rus]

I like check-raising this hand from BB if button or LAG bets and no one call yet. Or i check-fold if action exists.

[droidboy]

I get 38.7% equity, not 50%. Of course, you probably won't be against three random hands...

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>

3,896,000 games 8.752 secs 445,155 games/sec

Board: Qc 8d 7h

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 38.7239 % [ 37.22 01.50 ] { Js8c }
Hand 2: 20.4163 % [ 19.38 01.04 ] { random }
Hand 3: 20.4371 % [ 19.40 01.04 ] { random }
Hand 4: 20.4227 % [ 19.39 01.04 ] { random }

Hand Distribution ( 1): Js8c
Hand Distribution ( 2): random
Hand Distribution ( 3): random
Hand Distribution ( 4): random
</pre><hr />

- Andrew

[CORed]

Call me weak-tight, but to play middle pair I like Two or three of the following:
2 or fewer opponents.
Position.
A very good (Q or better) kicker.
An uncoordinated flop.

You only have one of these (the uncoordinated flop).

I would usually fold here. Simulations may show a fairly high win percentage, but this is a hand that is likely to win small (everyone folds the flop because they have no pair or bottom pair) or lose big (top pair or middle pair with better kicker takes you to a showdown), so it's hard to make money. If you're behind, you usually have 5, 3 or 2 outs, so it's not a great draw either. Maybe good enough to see the turn for 1 bet.

[Peter_rus]

If you so often check-fold on flop with such cards you must be really tight PF cause you are really loosing EV. You must take every +EV and every chance to capture pot to make your PF-call or PF-completing with marginal profitable i think.

[CORed]

I find that middle pair is a hand that can easily be -EV, if played too much. The example in the initial post in this thread is one I would consider to be a marginal middle pair hand. Give me better position(not likely, because I hardly ever play J8 anywhere but the blinds), three players instead of four or make it A8 instead of Q8, and I would bet it without hesitation. As always, it's also going to depend on my opponents. Against either weak-tight or very loose opponents, I would be more inclined to play.