Garbage Man

[Michael Davis]

I move to a new table and post behind the button.

Three limpers to me, I check with 7s6c. Button calls, SB calls, BB raises. All call including me, and the SB pops it for a third bet. The BB doesn't cap and we all call the third bet. 10.5 big bets in the pot.

Flop: Qc 8c 3c

Checked around.

Turn: Qc 8c 3c (8h)

Blinds check, first player to limp bets. Two limpers fold to me and I raise.

-Michael

This is one of those situations when bluffing when the pot is big is good.

I would raise only if a river bet won't get called.

`dude

[Richie Rich]

Could be wrong, but I always thought "bluffing when the pot is big" was typically bad, since you'll almost always be called. If you strategically bluff at certain times and with a certain frequency, then that's good. But bluffing just because the pot is big?...

I suppose many will argue that you only have to be successful 10% of the time, to proit from bluffing 1BB into a pot of 15BB+. Which is true. But when the pot's that big, doesn't someone always call?

[1800GAMBLER]

Did you consider betting the flop?

[Michael Davis]

Not really. With seven opponents, I expect somebody to have something here. It wasn't until the subsequent actions on the turn that I thought there was a real possibility nobody had anything.

I'm just not sure I can knock out the higher mid-range clubs on the flop. If my goal is to pick up this pot, which honestly I wasn't really thinking about on the flop, I think my turn play was better.

And, for the record, if my turn play is good, I think it is only because I have a small club.

-Michael

[1800GAMBLER]

'And, for the record, if my turn play is good, I think it is only because I have a small club.'

and

'with seven opponents, I expect somebody to have something here'

Are the reasons i like the flop bet. With that silly preflop action i can imagine something weird happening on the flop. Your main interest is to knock the limpers out, they are the ones most likely to have the cards you want out. The SB and BB are less likely to have cards you want out/they will fold, if they do have a high club they aren't folding it (even though it's unlikely they do because of the flop action). So after they both check the flop i'd bet in the hopes they do infact have something that hit the board and checkraise me. Forcing the limpers to the decision of 2 bets cold with the 3rd/4th nut flush draw.

On the turn the only reason for your play is to clean up outs, just because the 2nd high card paired/flop action i don't think that will make your bluff alone successful. Yet when you raise here you already have two limpers out and the players who went aggro preflop left. You also have a very high chance of being 3 bet, which doesn't suck, but it's nothing good either.

I would have bet the flop and had i not i would have only called the turn.

[Michael Davis]

Eh, are you sure I can call this turn bet? I would fold before raising.

I did not have very much concern about either of the blinds. They both raised preflop and have now checked twice. Very few players can check twice with a solid hand here.

[1800GAMBLER]

Yes. Easily. You are getting ~12:1 on a 4:1 shot, so you only have to be good ~33%.

[Michael Davis]

Yes, but I only have the six of clubs. So I'm 4-1 to hit (acutally, I think I'm a bit better than this given the action thus far), but not to win.

-Michael

[1800GAMBLER]

Hence you only need to be good on the river 33% of the time. 2 out of 3 times you can hit the river, lose and be profitable.

[Michael Davis]

This was my reason for raising on the turn. It looks like nobody has a big club. I'm only screwed if the bettor has a flush. Even if he has an 8, which seems like the worst case scenario, he's not going to threebet, and it is highly unlikely he has a club given that the eight of clubs is on board. So my raise on the turn, which I think has a good chance of pushing everyone else out, gives me the only flush draw.

It's possible I'm thinking too optimistically here, and also that I am being influenced by the actual result of the hand.

-Michael

[1800GAMBLER]

Hey.

As i said abouve the people you are pushing out now are the people most unlikely to have a higher club than you.

The main concern were the limpers and now they have gone i'd rather lower my investment by just calling.

What happened in the end?

[Michael Davis]

I raised and everyone folded to the original bettor who called. I planned on betting any river except a six or a non-club seven, in which case I would check behind, as I can't see him folding anything that beats me in this case. Also, I'm not as certain as you are that my raise wouldn't have knocked out the jack of clubs or something.

A six hit on the river and I checked behind. My opponent showed 22 with the two of clubs. (The only hand I beat that he might possibly fold is 77 probably with the club.) I think he played his hand very well. I also think there's no way he calls a river bet without hitting the flush. However, I probably could have bluffed the river even without the raise had I just called, even if another player called behind.

All that being said, I'm still not sure just folding wasn't the best play here. A big part of my raise was the bluffing part, and I think what you are saying is either that it was a) foolish to expect a bluff to take this pot down, or b) that I could have run a bluff anyways without the raise.

The table went into an uproar when I showed my hand.

-Michael

[AJo Go All In]

one time i raised blind and then bet and raised at every opportunity without looking at my cards, i ended up having J4o, i flopped a full house and won a big pot.

[Michael Davis]

Thank you.

-Michael

[1800GAMBLER]

Hey.

I don't think you will knock the Js out if it's there, i just don't think it's there, at least not 66% of the time. If the SB held Js he'd probably bet the flop, if the BB held JJ he'd probably bet while it's unlikely he has AoJs since he raised out of his blind. As and Ks you would have probably have heard from also. Which leaves a few lower suited cards and given the preflop action it's unlikely either of them held any of those.