Should I Have Done This?

[Ess Why Kay]

Just busted out of a $20 NL Hold Em Tourney over at Poker Stars. I had about an average sized stack, steadily increasing it by picking up some small pots and playing conservative. Everything was going well until the following hand.

http://www.pokerhand.org/newhand.php?hand=2461

I just want to know if I made the correct play or not. I wanted to get that idiot to the right of me out of the pot, but he had other plans.

[tw texas]

ssaight

[Marine139]

I have to admit I liked your outs. IT seemed wrong that the one that hit happened to be 2nd best but it happens. One thing is that if this were a cash game and you guys "lets just say" kept capping it *for the same effect as going all-in*. It would have been a good play because of your odds yet it was a tournament and I believe there is some sort of Cardnial rule that talks about not drawing out if possible. If you didnt go for it then you would have still been in with fine chips and then been able to continue with what you were doing *picking up the small pots and so on* and then maybe hit something really nice to double on. IMO this wasn't the best thing to do because I dont like draws unless they are nessisary in tournaments but I believe mathematically you were correct. But what is a mathematical call when if you miss your draw then your out of the tournament?

Marine

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]

I just want to know if I made the correct play or not. I wanted to get that idiot to the right of me out of the pot, but he had other plans.

[/ QUOTE ]

why would you the guy on your right out? you have no made hand but a draw to the nuts - grab up everybody you can and get them to call.

it's a close decision, but i think you call this all-in. (calling and pushing are basically the same as the 3rd guy will be PC'd by calling). here are some hands the opponent is reasonably likely to have:

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 5s 4c 2c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Qc 360 36.36 528 53.33 102 10.30 0.415
As Ad 528 53.33 360 36.36 102 10.30 0.585

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 5s 4c 2c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Qc 500 50.51 472 47.68 18 1.82 0.514
Kc Kd 472 47.68 500 50.51 18 1.82 0.486

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 5s 4c 2c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Qc 578 58.38 403 40.71 9 0.91 0.588
7c 7d 403 40.71 578 58.38 9 0.91 0.412

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 5s 4c 2c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Qc 439 44.34 438 44.24 113 11.41 0.501
As Ks 438 44.24 439 44.34 113 11.41 0.499

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 5s 4c 2c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Qc 306 30.91 666 67.27 18 1.82 0.318
5c 5d 666 67.27 306 30.91 18 1.82 0.682

although i think AKs and 55 are unlikely.

there's a lot of dead money in the pot, and you're not in terrible shape against anything, only behind AA, a set, or a made straight. put the chips in.

and you shouldn't have busted out this hand - you had them covered.

[Ess Why Kay]

Yeah, I didn't bust out right then. I had like 700 or so chips left and busted out a short time after.

I'm convinced I made the right move pushing my money in with so many outs. I had 9 outs for the nuts, 3 more for an Ace (2 actually, but I didn't know Retard had one til now), 3 more for a Queen and 4 more to hit my straight. The hand looked beautiful and I took a shot and missed.

I also do agree that the Idiot to my right was making the wrong move by calling, but it isn't as bad as I was thinking. Him calling gives me better odds, in the sense that I have a good drawing hand and if I hit I can take his and the other players money. Unfortunately he got lucky and not I.

[tripdad]

if the one who raised preflop is an idiot as you suggest, you should have wanted him heads-up. to do this, you need to make a significant re-raise preflop. either you win it right there, or you get him where you want him.

cheers!

[Ess Why Kay]

No, the person who won the pot and outlucked us all is the idiot.

[davidross]

You have 28 BB's at the start of the hand, there is no way I'm calling all my chips when I know I'm behind. You want to be the guy getting it all in with the best of it and have someone call you on a flush draw when you're the 2 to 1 favorite. It was a good flop for you, and if you can see a cheap turn by all means go for it, but you can't call an all-in here.

[tripdad]

i agree.

cheers!

[durron597]

Here's the exact probabilities for the hand:

pokenum -h ac qc - as 6h - 7h 7d -- 2c 4c 5s
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 5s 4c 2c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Qc 460 50.94 443 49.06 0 0.00 0.509
As 6h 98 10.85 805 89.15 0 0.00 0.109
7d 7h 345 38.21 558 61.79 0 0.00 0.382

So you were way ahead. Anyway, more importantly:

You have 9 + 4 + 3 + 3 = 19 outs against one pair lower than Kings
You have 9 + 4 + 3 = 16 outs against Kings or Queens
You have 9 + 4 = 13 outs against Aces or Two pair or a set
You have 9 outs against a made straight

Given that you have a shot at raking in a huge pot, I like these odds, and I make your play every single time without hesitation. Remember there's a reason that Chris Moneymaker and Sam Farha can be the final two at the WSOP one year and bust out on day one the next year. Don't sweat it, cards happen.

[Ess Why Kay]

I didn't call an all in, I had them both covered, and I woulda been in good shape if Idiot didn't call my raise to all in. Also, the board was all low cards and I didn't only have the flush draw, I had a straight draw, and a chance to catch an A or a Q and win the pot.

[davidross]

The guy in front of you was all-in so you called an all-in, you just weren't all-in yourself. You don't know if your overcards are any good, and your gutshot is to the wrong end of the straight. If you could have seen both their cards, your call is marginally OK.

I'm saying there is no way I call his all in bet or push myself, I just don't like to gamble on coinflips unless I have to. If you make this play twice in a tournament you'll be out 75% of the time. But the 25% you win both, you're in great shape, so I guess it's a personal style decision we all make.

[Grivan]

The key problem here is your likely not behind. Assume you were only all in against the guy with 77 (honestly the guy with A6 had no business being around) you have 18 outs twice to hit something that helps you. 9 clubs, 3 aces, 3 queens, and 3 3s all help you. You win this 60.5% according to twodimes which is well ahead of even a coin flip. With the dead money in the pot not going all in here is a HUGE mistake.

Now the A6 guy coming makes this all in even more profitable for you. With him in here you still win 51% of the time according to two dimes. You are still over 50% to win with 3 people all in! Ill take a 50% chance to triple my chips any day.

People who lay down huge draws like this in a tournament are the same people who will wonder why they get blinded out as the blinds start to go up. This is a great opportunity to amass chips and you should love to be all in here on the flop. Even if you happen to be up against AA or a made straight you still have the flush outs and it isn't a dissaster and this will be rare.

[Ess Why Kay]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's the exact probabilities for the hand:

pokenum -h ac qc - as 6h - 7h 7d -- 2c 4c 5s
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 5s 4c 2c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Qc 460 50.94 443 49.06 0 0.00 0.509
As 6h 98 10.85 805 89.15 0 0.00 0.109
7d 7h 345 38.21 558 61.79 0 0.00 0.382

So you were way ahead. Anyway, more importantly:

You have 9 + 4 + 3 + 3 = 19 outs against one pair lower than Kings
You have 9 + 4 + 3 = 16 outs against Kings or Queens
You have 9 + 4 = 13 outs against Aces or Two pair or a set
You have 9 outs against a made straight

Given that you have a shot at raking in a huge pot, I like these odds, and I make your play every single time without hesitation. Remember there's a reason that Chris Moneymaker and Sam Farha can be the final two at the WSOP one year and bust out on day one the next year. Don't sweat it, cards happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks a lot man, that was a great post. To the other guy, I know I didn't go all in, which is why I said I'd still be in good shape if I lost. I had a great chance at the pot, and I guess it's just our style of play that decides if we take the shot or not. I remember Eskimo going all in on WPT with only a flush draw and beating someones Rockets.

Thanks guys.

[Ess Why Kay]

[ QUOTE ]
The key problem here is your likely not behind. Assume you were only all in against the guy with 77 (honestly the guy with A6 had no business being around) you have 18 outs twice to hit something that helps you. 9 clubs, 3 aces, 3 queens, and 3 3s all help you. You win this 60.5% according to twodimes which is well ahead of even a coin flip. With the dead money in the pot not going all in here is a HUGE mistake.

Now the A6 guy coming makes this all in even more profitable for you. With him in here you still win 51% of the time according to two dimes. You are still over 50% to win with 3 people all in! Ill take a 50% chance to triple my chips any day.

People who lay down huge draws like this in a tournament are the same people who will wonder why they get blinded out as the blinds start to go up. This is a great opportunity to amass chips and you should love to be all in here on the flop. Even if you happen to be up against AA or a made straight you still have the flush outs and it isn't a dissaster and this will be rare.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you. That is what I was also trying to say, that I wasn't way behind calling that guys bet. I had plenty of outs to improve my hand aswell as some to make the best hand. If I would've won that pot I know I would've placed or even better, made the final table. I took a shot and missed, but I feel I made the right play. It happens.