The moment when aces turn into trash

[Azhrarn]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed.) No reads.

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, Hero raises, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero bets, Button raises, UTG calls,

I think for a moment, and I put the button on a strong queen, and UTG somewhere between a straight draw and two pair.

Hero 3-bets, Button caps, UTG calls...

Ew. What's that smell coming from my monitor? It smells like rotten eggs. Hmm, must be my aces...

I have to think I'm very probably behind here. How probably? That's the question. I'm getting 17-1 at this point. Do I fold or call? And if I call, what's my plan for the river?

[nothumb]

Well, I think you must ask how likely it is that button has a straight rather than a set or two pair. I don't think it's that likely, so my plan is to call.

I think we can more or less rule out a made straight for UTG if he is the least bit sane. I'm thinking A4s or something like that.

Button called 2 cold with what hand that you are drawing dead to? 24? 47? I think AQ or a set are far more likely, or even 56s.

22-1 to hit, 17-1 odds, large pot with a calling station UTG... I think it's a call. The only thing that concerns me is that UTG might have a suited ace, killing one of your outs. How big a factor should this be? The other thing I'm not sure about is whether to call a bet unimproved on the river once the pot is humongulous.

NT

[Azhrarn]

Anyone else have any comments?

I thought I was behind, but I was still a little uncertain, so I didn't want to fold. I decided to call the turn cap and call the river if it was only one bet.

River was a brick. Check, check, bet, call, call. Button showed a set of threes, and UTG showed a very passively played set of sixes.

I'm still not sure if my call down was a good move or not. Anyone think I should have folded on the turn or river? Anyone think I shouldn't have three bet the turn, considering I was unwilling to fold to a cap?

[sthief09]

you played it well. folding the river or the turn would be a HUGE mistake.