Another Bubble situation

[JrJordan]

Table was relatively LAG, had only 6 players left halfway through the 15/30 blinds. The SB, however, was very passive. He would complete the SB nearly every time when folded around, I would raise 3x BB and he would fold. The one time I just checked (with 52o), he checked the flop, turn, and river, at which point I bet him out of the pot. I was basically card dead so I was relying on SB for the last 5 orbits to stay around. Anyway, to the hand.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed)

Button (t1985)
SB (t1010)
Hero (t2095)
UTG (t2910)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises to t1000</font>, Button folds, <font color="CC3333">SB raises to t1010 (All-In)</font>, Hero...

What's the move here? SB's willingness to call makes me think he at least has something because he's been so passive. UTG has been the table bully for the past few orbits when most of us were shortstacked. The only issue is that he is pushing hard from UTG, not exactly your typical steal situation.

There's a big chance I'm dominated with someone having a higher pocket pair. If I call and lose to UTG, I still get 3rd place for having the bigger stack over SB. If SB wins, then I'm either out or very shortstacked and will be out shortly. If I win, then it seems like a good run for first. What is the correct move here?

Now that I think about it, I kind of disregarded the option of just calling the additional 610 to see the flop, and go from there. The blinds are so huge that any money in here basically makes me pot committed, but what do you think of that?

[JrJordan]

Never seen a post fall off the main page so quick. Any takers?

[UncleRemus]

This definitely seems like a situation to sit back and watch to me. I would most likely say UTG is making the 2.5X raise with 2 paints, or at the very least Ax, and with SB's prior play you've got to assume he's either got you dominated or at least two overcards to you.

Worst case scenario, you're against overcards from UTG and a higher pocket pair from SB -- Giving you about a ~15% chance of winning, a ~45% chance of losing to SB and being extremely shortstacked, and a ~40% chance of losing to UTG and being out of the tourney.

Best case scenario, UTG is holding Ax(x&lt;6) and SB has him dominated with a great ace. Even in this ideal unlikely situation, you're looking at a ~50% chance of going broke or becoming very shortstacked.

I think the best bet in this situation is to sit back every time, and wait for a chance to be the aggressor.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Easy fold. If UTG wins this, you're in the money with 2nd stack. If SB wins, you're marginally the big stack.

You're probably not against an underpair, so best case scenario, you're up against 3 overcards.

[gergery]

Easy fold.

What cards do you think they are likely to have that you would be happy to see?

Is the chance they have those cards greater than 50%?

--Greg

[JrJordan]

Okay, sounds like the majority say to fold the pocket pair. I did indeed fold. UTG flips over A8s to EP's A6o. Worst case scenario happens when a pair of 3's hit the flop, followed by a T and K for a chopped pot. The next hand UTG pushes all in and I call from the SB with JJ. I'm busted out when UTG's AQs hits an A on the turn.

I felt confident about the decision, perhaps being slightly results oriented. I think the bigger issue in my mind was the idea of trying to limp into the money, or taking a demanding lead to go for the top money in first. You guys have helped to confirm that folding was the right decision.

[Chicago Kid]

Seems like a no-brainer to me. Even if neither of the two has a larger pair, you're almost certainly facing 4 overcards. I can't think the SB would call this bet without a fairly powerful hand.

If they're both on overcards, you're on the bad side of a coinflip (actually, 44-54). If it's a pair and overcards, 4-1 dog.

If you're intent on playing this, an all-in might scare off the UTG, but that's doubtful....

Save your chips. Even if UTG wins it, you're still roughly half his size, and will still command respect.

[Chicago Kid]

[ QUOTE ]
Worst case scenario happens when a pair of 3's hit the flop, followed by a T and K for a chopped pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way, man. Worst case would an 8 or A hitting, dropping you down. Take your part of the pot, smile, and be happy the lesson didn't cost anything! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Jason Strasser]

I want to admit something. I first tried to respond to this post, but then I stopped, because I was lost.

I do not think this is a clear cut fold. But it could be the right play. Here is my logic.

1) Hero is in the BB. It costs 600 to call, and it's as good as closing the action because UTG can't reraise. That is 2400:600, or 4:1. I think a raise is silly and suicidal, but I don't see whats wrong with a call.

2) Most players do not bluff into a dry-side pot. More often than not, especially on the bubble, this will go check check, check check, check check. If you see a showdown, you have about a 1 in 6 shot of hitting a set, and assuming a portion of the time 66 wins unimproved, I think you are getting sufficient odds to warrant a call.

3) Assuming that there is a pocket pair above 66 out there is not good. UTG doesn't need much to raise here (just ask me). And the SB doesn't need a monster to call. Assuming you fold, both parties have a great overlay, and I could easily see the SB calling with A9, A4, 44, KQ, etc. Sure, he could have a monster, but you still are getting pretty sweet odds.

I'm not sure why everyone jumped to the conclusion that calling is out of the question. It's really not that simple in my view. Worst case scenario is that you call, the flop comes AKQ, and you fold and have T1400 to go to work. If you win the hand, you go up to 4.5k.

I really don't think this hand is so simple.

But maybe I'm wrong.

[JrJordan]

Might want to reread, as I did fold. The worst case scenario aspect was that they split the pot. This kept the SB from busting out and me making the money. Likewise, it kept UTG from becoming an even big stack with me and the other player, making it harder for him to steal. I'd prefer one or the other to the chop.