My Check/Raise didn't work...What next?

[tripdad]

Live n/l hold'em tourney. Villain in hand is new to game, and i have no read whatsoever, as he just moved to my table. i have about a 20K chip lead on him(somewhere around 70K for me and 50K for him)...he is 2nd stack. blinds are 1K/2K.

Villain is UTG+1, i am BB with J /images/graemlins/club.gif10 /images/graemlins/club.gif. Villain open raises to 4K. folded to me...i call.

Flop(9K): A /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif5 /images/graemlins/club.gif
i check, Villain bets 4K, i raise to 12K, Villain calls.

obviously, i would have rather won it right there. so now, i put Villain on either a club draw as well, or a pretty good Ace. however, if he had AK, or AA, i would think i would have been re-raised all in. from what i understand, Villain is a pretty good player.

Turn(33K): 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

What is your next move and why?

cheers!

[Chief911]

Check and fold unless its a small bet like 2k.

Nick

[gcDanno]

You have a very nice draw for the final card, but you are most definitly behind here. Your odds are probably somewhere around 35% to win this hand.

I would check, hoping that maybe he was afraid of another check/raise. I would consider calling a small bet. If he raises all in, you should consider folding.

gc

[Bernas]

agreed. Seems like you might be playing into his hand. Looks like he is trying to get maximum value out of his hand.

[AceKQJT]

You just check-raised a pure flush draw, with only back-door possibilities. His smooth-call tells me you are way behind. I suspect he has a set, but he could just have AK, AQ, AJ. Either way, I don't imagine he will lay down to your turn bet, even if he thinks you may be holding A-5 or A-9. I check-fold the turn.

Casey

[Tosh]

I think your raise was too small if that was how you wanted to play it. 20k would be roughly pot sized.

[JARID]

Trip,

Well if he is on a strong ace you might be facing the all in here on the turn. In fact, I think thats what I would put him on. A /images/graemlins/club.gif draw seems like a long shot here given the one of the flop /images/graemlins/club.gif's is the ace. I would almost think 99 before club draw.

You have 15 clean outs( 9clubs, 3non-club Q's and 3non club 7s). By my math, and this could be wrong, you really only need about 1.85-1 to call a bet here.

He has about 34k left at this point and so if you check and he shoves all in you are getting 2-1, right? 33k + his 34k. However, I think if you are willing to call an all-in you should shove all-in and add some potential folding equity to this hand. He might have KK or something and is trying to decide if you have a good ace or a club draw.

Now that I have had 5 minutes to think about this, /images/graemlins/tongue.gif I like;

1. Moving all-in.
2. Checking and calling a smallish bet, or maybe getting a free card, but folding to an all-in bet.

What did you do and how did it work out?

-Jarid

[tripdad]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your raise was too small if that was how you wanted to play it. 20k would be roughly pot sized.

[/ QUOTE ]

online, if i even tried the c/r, i would definitely make it pot sized. in this live game, fortunately, not many have any concept of pot-odds or what a pot-size bet means. in other words, if he didn't have a playable hand, he wouldn't have called the 8K. no need here to raise it 16K and make it 20K to go.

cheers!

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]
Check and fold unless its a small bet like 2k.

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you check/fold here when you have such a good draw? Even if he moves in on the turn, the pot will still warrant a call in my opinion.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Moving all-in.
2. Checking and calling a smallish bet, or maybe getting a free card, but folding to an all-in bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

I kept waffling between these two before I read the responses, and I still can't decide which is better. Mike Caro has a princible he calls something like the "one more thing" rule. If you have a close decision, consider one more factor and make your decision based on that. In this case, being live, you might be able to get a tell. Ask him how much he has left. Count it out from your stack. Try to keep an eye on him and decide if he wants you to push or not.

[MLG]

I think you got yourself in trouble here with check-raise. He is giving you a great price to catch, so just call the bet getting over 3:1 on your money. Underbetting the pot like this probably means he has either missed and wants to pick the pot up, or is begging for a call (not an inbetween hand you will force him off) so just call. If you brick out on the turn I bet about 1/3 the pot. If he has nothing you win it there, if he has something you either get pushed off the hand (losing about 10K between flop and turn) or he calls and gives you the chance to draw out on his big ace. By checkraising here you ensure that you will only get to see one card if you're behind because you need to checkfold the turn.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]


How can you check/fold here when you have such a good draw? Even if he moves in on the turn, the pot will still warrant a call in my opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with that. If he has the full 15 outs (which he may not if the opponent has a set or KQ of clubs), he's got 15/46 = 1/3 chance of catching, and he's getting less that 2:1 from the pot. In what is basically the best case scenario, he's just short of getting odds, and there are other, worse scenarios. He's got a fair number of outs no matter what, but I don't think I would call an all in here.

Pushing makes sense if you can get your opponent to fold some of the hands he might otherwise set you in with (KQ of clubs, small-medium aces).

[davidross]

THis might be crazy...but what about an undersized bet on the turn? If he is really slowplaying, he might just smooth call you, giving you the same situation if you checked and he made a small bet, and possibly avoiding having to call an all-in. It seems to me checking tells him exactly what you have, and he will almost certainly push in to take away odds on what he probably thinks is an 8 or 9 outer.

[tripdad]

my draw dramatically improved on the turn. having said that (and without the help of your handy dandy odds calculator), how many think my chances of winning improved?

also, know this: there had been about 20 hands dealt since Villain sat down with me, all but one of which i folded preflop. the one i played, i put 2 players out to take his chip lead. Villain has been quite aggressive. he also most likely has been told i am the "one to watch out for" at this game.

i'll wait for more "what to do" responses before posting results.

cheers!

[chet]

[ QUOTE ]
my draw dramatically improved on the turn. having said that (and without the help of your handy dandy odds calculator), how many think my chances of winning improved?

also, know this: there had been about 20 hands dealt since Villain sat down with me, all but one of which i folded preflop. the one i played, i put 2 players out to take his chip lead. Villain has been quite aggressive. he also most likely has been told i am the "one to watch out for" at this game.

i'll wait for more "what to do" responses before posting results.

cheers!

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if you hit the straight draw, you were good. If you hit the club draw, he may have had you.

[tripdad]

so you put him on clubs? you push then, i assume? and my chances to win go up with the turn card?

[ QUOTE ]
I think if you hit the straight draw, you were good. If you hit the club draw, he may have had you.

[/ QUOTE ]

cheers!

[EnderFFX]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check and fold unless its a small bet like 2k.

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you check/fold here when you have such a good draw? Even if he moves in on the turn, the pot will still warrant a call in my opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think a call is correct, however, pushing him all in on the turn may be a decent play. If he is on the club draw he is going to have to fold with one card to go. He also may fold a decent hand. (like AQ, AJ) If you don't make a move here, and wait for the river, if the flush hits you may be beaten, if the straight hits you are probably good, and if nothing hits, you'll be faced with a decision of what he has when he bets, and what you are going to do.

I think putting him in on the turn is the right move, you've already shown strength on the flop, and may be showing the indications of slow-playing a monster pre-flop (AA, AKs)

Just my 2 cents.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]

I think if you hit the straight draw, you were good. If you hit the club draw, he may have had you.

[/ QUOTE ]

In which case, of course, your 3 Js and 3 Ts are all outs, so relly that doesn't hurt you too much. Worst case scenario is a set or KQ (or K7) of clubs, which all still leave you with 13 outs.

[tripdad]

anyone fold preflop? check/call the flop bet? check/fold the flop bet? bet the flop, fold to raise?

cheers!

[cferejohn]

I like the way you played it. No way I fold JTs to a min raise in the BB. On the flop, your check-raise represents an ace and may get a pair to fold. I might have made a slightly larger check-raise.

[Roman]

I would make a slightly larger c/r on the flop and push the turn. Getting fold equity from this hand is really important because you don't know exactly where you stand on the river unless you catch the straight. On top of that, being out of position and not knowing if he will push in if you check to him forcing you to fold makes pushing the more correct play.

[chet]

[ QUOTE ]
so you put him on clubs? you push then, i assume? and my chances to win go up with the turn card?

[ QUOTE ]
I think if you hit the straight draw, you were good. If you hit the club draw, he may have had you.

[/ QUOTE ]

cheers!

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't push on a semi bluff here, although I do think your prospects have improved. I bet 12K and probably fold to an all in raise.

[Roman]

you fold with those pot odds?

[chet]

[ QUOTE ]
you fold with those pot odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he reraises all in, it's 22K back to me for a 79K pot. So I need to have about 30% to call.

If I assume hitting my straight is good, I have 8 outs there. Count 1/2 the clubs (assuming he has 2) gives you 3.5 and then you have to take 1/2 of the outs for hitting a J/T which is 3. That gets you to 14.5 outs which is pretty close to 30%.

So, if I'm looking at this correctly, I think it's close to even money if he pushes.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
If he reraises all in, it's 22K back to me for a 79K pot. So I need to have about 30% to call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, actually, that's nearly 4:1 (22K being ~20K and 79K being 80K). You need not much better than a 20% chance of winning for it to be even, chip EV wise. Out of curiosity, where did you come up with 30%? Passing up something close to even money (i.e. if you check and your opponent pushes) would be acceptable. You can't bet and then fold here without making a mistake, whatever he has. If you are going to bet less than all-in, the reason should be that it might look less like a bluff, but if he comes back over, you need to call.

[Joe Tall]

Where do yo stand in the tourney? Did you say you were the largest stack and are tangling with stack #2? What's the payout? How many left?

You've picked up 6 more outs. Giving you 15. The pot is sizeable. Depending on where you want to finish should determine your decision.

I like to win and I would like to see the river here. You've got plenty of chips left relative to the blinds. I'd make an underbet and hope he just calls (or folds). The pot is ~33k you have ~52k, I'd make a bet about 8k-9k, somewhere close to a 3rd of the pot but leaving you plenty to get away from. I think that is enough to make it look like you want a call and it's not silly-small, enough to keep him in his seat, so to speak.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[tripdad]

5 are left. 3 make money. 50-30-20% payouts. $30 buy-in.

if i lose an all-in, that puts me in 4th chip position. i am confident i can play a short stack and still make the money. in fact, i am a better short stack player than a big stack player (was that a hint?).

cheers!

[JARID]

[ QUOTE ]
I kept waffling between these two before I read the responses, and I still can't decide which is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Glad to see someone considered my line. Seems like everyone wanted to take a softer route here.

[ QUOTE ]
If you have a close decision, consider one more factor and make your decision based on that. In this case, being live, you might be able to get a tell. Ask him how much he has left. Count it out from your stack. Try to keep an eye on him and decide if he wants you to push or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

I play online tourneys. This is a great point.

-Jarid

[Roman]

that makes no sense.... how did he just get moved to your table if its 5 handed?

[tripdad]

i said there were 20 hands played. i took 2 out in one hand, and another fella got busted too. final table is 8.

cheers!

[tripdad]

o.k. thanks for all the replies, and sorry to kill the thread, but here goes.

i pushed. my thinking was a) he would NOT call with just an Ace so close to the money, hopefully thinking i had 2 pair or a set. b) i mistakenly assumed that since my draw improved dramatically, that my chances of winning went UP if he called with an Ace. in actuallity, i became a BIGGER dog. c) pot odds dictated that i call an all-in, which isn't true, even if all my straight and flush outs are good. d) i can still win if i lose this pot (this is true).

Villain calls and flips over AQoffsuit...ouch, there goes an out!

River(ton o' chips): ddddddrrrrrruuuuuummmmmrrrrrooooollll....7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif


and i even forgot to chant for it.

next hand(4-handed and i have more than other 3 combined) i mucked K /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif UTG. i ain't givin' MY chips away to some short stack all-inner w/Ax!

shortly after, i uneventfully won w/A /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif vs.Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

cheers!