Push or Fold

[NegativeEV]

Party $20+2 SnG. Table is Loose/Passive to Weak/Tight. Generally, many see the flop and the first action on the flop takes the pot. You have T700, the blinds are 50/100 and increasing in 3 hands, so you are in "all-in or fold mode". You are dealt 77; you are UTG+1 and UTG folds. Do you push or fold- why?

Sorry- there are still 7 players at the table.

[PhilTheThrill14]

If I had to choose between push or fold I would choose fold. Still early enough to look for a better hand.

Any thoughts on trying to limp/call small raise for a chance at a set?

[NegativeEV]

My thoughts: I lay this down. I think the key is the early position with 4 players left to act. If CO or on the Button, I think this is an easy push. MP2 probably a push as well assuming no limpers. From UTG or UTG+1 I still think it is too early to push with mid PP. In the actual hand I pushed and was called by AA; I think that is the risk of pushing with this from early position. I'm curious what some of the aggressive players (Strasser) would do here.

[NegativeEV]

Can't small raise as that would be T200 out of my 700 stack (plus I don't min raise- ever). I don't like limping because my only chance at winning the pot then is hitting the set (8:1 odds) since there will be other limpers and any overcard is trouble at this table. Even if I hit the set, this tables doesn't give much action (weak/tight). With blinds at 1/7th of my stack I'm push or fold.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

In 3 hands you'll be down to 2.5 BB (virtually no fold equity) and have to push before the blinds get to you again. I'd push here.

[patrick dicaprio]

i push and hope to get called by non higher paires who assume i am weak. 77 is not bad if called but it is on the low side of the hands i willpush with in this situation.

Pat

[Jason Strasser]

This seems straightforward. You must push. Right now you have 700, it costs 150 to play a rotation, and it is about to go up.

There are eight hands (88-AA) that have you destroyed, and the rest have you at a coinflip. Plus, now is you push you have the chance of taking the blinds uncontested, which is ideal. If you wait any longer, your folding equity will be gone.

IMO this is a push with 77, I'd probably push here with 22, QJo, A6o, 89s. That is just me. I would rather go down fighting for the blinds, then losing my folding equity and clinging on for dear life.

Folding is not good, especially if your table has weak tight tendencies.

[poboys]

I'd push.

Another option, which works better at a more aggressive table is a limp-push if someone reraises. Most players holding a decent hand in LP would raise to get the blinds out. You could limp, then re-raise all in, trapping any limpers and the blinds. If no-one raises, then you can try to outplay on the flop or (fingers-crossed) hit the set. Just another, albeit riskier, option.

[NegativeEV]

This was my original thought and was why I pushed in the hand. The more I thought about it, the more I became unsure. I know that I will get called here with an over pair (1010 and up for sure), and I'll probably get called with AK and maybe AQ/AJ (Party $20+2 even though table is generally weak/tight AQ/AJ generally play). From UTG+1 there is a good chance one of these hands is out there, so I feel I'm getting marginal folding equity from EP. I'm 50/50 or worse against any hand that will call, and from EP, I don't like my lack of information.

On the other hand, I definately agree that the loss of folding equity once the blinds pass hurts my aggressiveness from this point out.

I'm a bit torn, but your post sways me to the push side, so I'll probably continue to push in this situation. I'm convinced.

[Sam T.]

Is this a situation in which you might try a stop-and-go? I realize that this is technically played only from the blinds, but UTG is pretty close.

Call here, and if it's raised, re-raise all-in. Then go all-in on any flop.

Just a thought.

[Jason Strasser]

Sam,

You can't stop and go. To stop and go you need to call a raise. It is to attempt to gain folding equity in a spot where you probably don't have any by pusing preflop. Here you have folding equity by pushing preflop.

[Jason Strasser]

NEV,

I think sometimes because in a lot of these posts I always seem to say push push push, people think I just like saying push, and that I am a mad man. Maybe true. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

But with 4 players to act behind you, playing scared of a higher pocket pair or AK-AJ is bad. How can you assume that they will show up with hands like this? Regardless, I'm sure someone can bust out some sort of EV equation to show you why you can't play scared of hands like these, and why pushing is the CLEAR solution here. There is no doubt in my mind that folding is wrong, I don't even think this is near any type of borderline.

[NegativeEV]

I welcome a solid "EV Equation" here. My simple mind does simple math. If I assume that the top 5% of hands will call and I have 4 left to act behind me then .95 x .95 x .95 x .95 = .81. That tells me there is around an 80% chance that no one has a top 5% hand behind me. If we drop down to a top 10% hand, there is a ~ 60% chance that no one has this type of hand behind me. This simple calc supports your argument in my mind. Also supports that I probably have folding equity (to the blinds) so I'm even more convinced that the push is correct.

[PhilTheThrill14]

I see now where the push is actually the right play. I've been working on being more aggressive and it has started to pay off - thanx to what I read here at 2+2. I really didn't think about the loss of folding equity once the blinds hit me again when I originally answered.

Thanx guys!

[Meatmaw]

Well, NEV, if any overpair and AK AQ AJ would call, then you're looking at 90 hands out of 50*49/2 = 1225 possible hands. That's 7.35% of any 2 cards having those hands. So chance of none of them having it is about .9265^4 = 73.7% (i guess we can ignore the slight changes from each successive miss.)

So about 3/4 chance you'll steal 150, and 1/4 chance you'll go face to face to gain 700-850 more chips (let's ballpark it at 750). In the 1/4 chance you're looking at 42 possible overpair combos and 48 possible AK AQ AJ. That's 42/90 of a 1-in-5 shot, and 48 of a 1-in-2 shot.

So, the 1/4 times u get called, your expectation is:
(48/90)*(.5*750 + .5*(-700)) + (42/90)*(.2*750 + .8*(-700))
= 13.3333333 - 191.33333 = -178.0

Combined with the .75 steals, your expectation is:

.25*(-178) + .75*(150) = 68.

It is positive EV (assuming you get called by the cards you mentioned, and folded to with everything else). This doesn't include the cases where you get more than one call.

Oh, and, intuitively, I would just push. I mean, 77. That is a fine headsup hand in a rapidly control-diminishing situation.

[NegativeEV]

Good one.

[Jason Strasser]

Is this right? Something doesn't look right, yet I can't figure out what.

[Meatmaw]

By all means, please point out any parts you suspect might be incorrect enough to change the numbers significantly. I need more brain exercise in this area. I find I'm usually too lazy to think of this and I'm a geek, so I should.

[RollaJ]

Wow, you found a Party table with 7 players left at the 50/100 table..... im impressed. I either fold or call since you said it is Loose/Passive to Weak/Tight. In general Id fold, but as per your description Id try to sneak in

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]

There are eight hands (88-AA) that have you destroyed, and the rest have you at a coinflip. Plus, now is you push you have the chance of taking the blinds uncontested, which is ideal. If you wait any longer, your folding equity will be gone.

[/ QUOTE ]

In the party 20+2/30+3, I've been called by {Ax| x<7} quite a few times in this sort of situation. If I go in with 77 I'm not looking for a call, but I think I'm +EV on average even if called.