does it get any weaker than this?

[bosoxfan]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed)

MP1 (t890)
MP2 (t700)
CO (t815)
Button (t350)
SB (t1065)
BB (t2130)
Hero (t2050)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Hero raises to t350, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls t250.

Flop: (t750) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB bets t1780 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: t2530

Results in white below: <font color="white">
No showdown. BB wins t2530. </font>

I'm still not sure how bad of a fold it was. It worked out well because I went on to win. Any comments and/or flames welcome.

I would also like to point out this a low buy in on party and there are still 7 left at level 4. Strange.

[VarlosZ]

I think you've got to call. A straight wouldn't push, and even two pair would probably go for a check-raise. This smells very much like KQ to me, in which case you're a pretty big favorite.

Did you really think it was likely that you were an underdog at this point? If so, why?


Regards,
Jer

[Cry Me A River]

While you generally want to avoid mixing it up with the big stack early, I don't think this was a great laydown.

He's defending his blind and player will often do so with less than optimum cards. He's also big-stack so he can afford it. However, your raise was big enough from UTG that I question whether he calls with QT, maybe QTs but that's still a stretch. How's he been playing?

Calling an all-in for 7th place is tough, but this really, really smells like a put on. With this flop I'd expect him to slowplay if he'd just flopped straight or a set. I'd put him on Kx maybe something like JTs.

[bosoxfan]

He called a 3.5 times the big blind raise I made from under the gun so I assumed he had at least a decent hand. This was the first time he pushed. After he pushed the first thing that came into my mind was a set of nines but something like KQ is probably more likely giving him top pair with straight draw.

[Jason Strasser]

Boxsoxfan,

First of all, I hear they may trade Nomar to the Dodgers, then use prospects to get the big unit. Interesting.

On to the hand. I'm tempted to put the other big stack on a hand. And quite frankly, I can't put him on a hand that would beat you. I do think avoiding confrontations with the other big stack is a good lesson, but I also think that when you are ahead, you should go ahead and not give up big edges to avoid this confrontation.

I cant see what hand wouldn't check raise that beats you. Maybe the only hand you are behind is bottom set, but its more likely he has AK or KQ.

I call here, but I can't argue with a fold. This hand is by no means a hand where you are way ahead all of the time. If you fold, you still have a great stack.

Weak tight, but not horrible IMO.

[NegativeEV]

I disagree with the other posters here. I think this is a good lay down. I put him on KK, KJ, JJ, 99, or maybe even K9. I would push with all of these in his shoes with a T500 pot and a dangerous board out there to try to protect from AK or AQ. He called a decent raise preflop and came out swinging on a dangerous flop. He moves me off my hand here and if he did it with QJ or KQ, then good for him. Why risk the tournament when you have a solid chip stack and any of the hands above beat you.

[Meatmaw]

I guess it depends on what hands you think he might have called in BB with your 2.5x raise and how aggressively he might push what he might have against your early raise.

If you think he's pretty tight but not aggressive with his big hands and might behave the way he did preflop with:
KK/JJ/99 (3 each), QQ/TT (6 each), KQ (12), then that's 9 that beat you and 24 that don't (27% scary). If you expand that to include a little looser play and discount the big hands figuring he doesn't slowplay, then maybe you think he has:

JJ-99, KQ-KT, QJ. This maps to 15 hands that scare you and 48 that don't (24% scary).

Of course this doesn't account for his all-in move. If you think he'd push regardless of any of these listed hands, then the lack of scariness says I'd call him.

I think that no matter how strong his hand, it's reasonable to consider he might simply prefer to have the chips in front of him rather than risk you very likely drawing to a straight, so I would not slowplay this hand.

If you think he would, reasonably wary of your raise, *not* risk you having the K (QJ or TT or QQ in his hand), then remove those and you get only 43% of the hands in the first case scaring you and 33% of the hands in the second case as scaring you.

Granted, the inclinations you peg on him might be wrong enough to make these calculations way off, but I'd call him. I'd probably want to kick myself many times as a result of this call. I think it might come down to how I size him up as an all-in-er.

The clincher for me is the fact that KK, JJ, and 99 occur only in 3 possible combinations when you know the flop has fallen that way. KQ alone has 12. Let's not forget AK for an additional 6 ways you'd love to see him end up. Sweet, sweet 9 scary and 18 not.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree with the other posters here. I think this is a good lay down. I put him on KK, KJ, JJ, 99, or maybe even K9. I would push with all of these in his shoes with a T500 pot and a dangerous board out there to try to protect from AK or AQ. He called a decent raise preflop and came out swinging on a dangerous flop. He moves me off my hand here and if he did it with QJ or KQ, then good for him. Why risk the tournament when you have a solid chip stack and any of the hands above beat you.

[/ QUOTE ]

This might be an acceptable laydown, but I certainly wouldn’t call it good.

If this is a good table, and with 7 left at level 4 that seems to qualify, then I give him credit for a good hand to call an UTG raiser. I’ll put him on JJ-99, AK, AQ-AJs, KQs. With AK being my leading candidate. I don’t see a good player flat calling with KK/QQ (would raise), or KJ/K9s (would fold).

I think a good player would checkraise with two pair or a set here, or at minimum bet smaller as they are ahead and want more money in the pot. Trying to push them out with those hands seems very –EV as the opposition is drawing to at most 9 outs on the turn – raise smaller to let them make a mistake. An all-in here smells much more like AK or KQ than anything else, and those hands are dealt much more often than KK/JJ/99.

Seems like a call is clearly EV positive, but I’d expect your opponent to have 5-10 outs, so if you feel you can outplay them later or are getting lots of fold equity from raises or just don’t want to gamble with the only other bigstack when only a mild favorite then folding is ok.

--Greg

[NegativeEV]

A call here is probably +EV given the range of hands that opponent could be moving in with. However the +EV is not overwhelming to the extent that I'm going to risk the tournament by going to war with the only other big stack at the table. I like being first to act when my tourney is on the line even if I think I may be +EV to call. Maybe my gap is too large, but I am very confident that I'll place here with T1700 left and I'm not willing to call down a potential set or 2 pair when doing so gives me zero chance at cashing. Obviously my chances to place 1st go up if I double here, but T1700 against this field also gives me a good chance at 1st and prevents a 7th. In this situation against the only other big stack I think the lay down is good, not just acceptable.