lesson received in hand reading

[DVO]

After this hand ended, I realized my river bet was not smart. This was a good ( expensive) lesson in taking a deep breath when you have a huge hand...and thinking.

Live multi $25 rebuy tourney, 290 players, we're pretty early, but I'm in good shape with the big stack of $3800 at my table. Chief opponent has $3000 or so.

I've been working hard lately on evaluating my opponents, and have a pretty good read on the players on this table. The best player I'm up against is the chief opponent.

Blinds are 25/ 50, he's in MP and one of 2 limpers to me, I pick up AK on the button and make it $250 to go. Only Chief Opp calls.

about ~$675 in the pot.

Flop: K-K-6, two clubs. I dont have a club.

Nice. I can feel the blood pulsing. He checks, I bet $400, he calls.

Pot: ~$1475
Turn: K-K-6-(5), still two clubs. He checks, I bet $1000, and he calls again.

I should have asked myself what the heck a good player would call large bets on the flop and turn with. It cant be a flush draw, he's too good to chase through the turn like that. It cant be K-Q, or K-J, he'd never call my pf raise with that. He probably wouldn't have even limped in with it.

But instead of thinking, I'm just jazzed at having this big hand. The river comes:

K-K-6-5-(9), no more clubs.

He checks, I put him all in for his last ~1000, and he calls in a flash and turns over 6-6 for the flopped full house. Of course. What else could he have?

The table ooohhed and ahhhed at the 'bad beat' i took, but the fact is, the river bet was a waste. He wouldn't call unless he beat me.

No matter how good the flop is for you, if a good player keeps calling huge bets, you could be in real trouble.

By the way, I think my turn bet was still ok, any comments?

[fnurt]

What else could he have? AK comes to mind. But yeah, checking the river is fine.

[tripdad]

i think you played this quite well until the river. you're right...he folds anything you beat except another K, which is unlikely. just check behind.

cheers!

[sdplayerb]

Yeah, I check the river.
I definitely bet the turn, and I probably would have put in 1200 actually.
I also think he should have check raised you on the turn as you now had a decent amount of outs and the pot was very big by then.
I also think his preflop call was pretty bad.
So I really don't think he is all that great.

That was a pretty unlikely flop, so I wouldn't worry about it too much. But you should check the river, per your read.

[tripdad]

[ QUOTE ]
I also think his preflop call was pretty bad.
So I really don't think he is all that great.

[/ QUOTE ]

he's getting better than 2:1 on the call...it's not that bad, and i would call most every time, especially early.

cheers!

[sdplayerb]

He isn't allin, so what does that matter?
Unless there is a 6 on the flop he doesn't know where he is at.

[Claudio86]

[ QUOTE ]
He isn't allin, so what does that matter?
Unless there is a 6 on the flop he doesn't know where he is at.

[/ QUOTE ]
First of all, he could easily just see a ragged flop and take the pot then and there with a move in or perhaps even a checkraise allin if he thinks hero will bet the flop regardless of hitting, and hero obviosuly has to fold to a push on the flop, if he only has two overcards. And second, the preflop call by cheif is fine, in NL calling a small-medium sized raise with any pair is profitable over time due to the humungous implied odds you are getting when playing no limit. if you hit a set and play well you can easily get the rest of your opponents chips, so theres nothing wrong with calling preflop with a low pair for those two reasons. back to the river bet, yes that was certainly an unneccessary bet, as if you get a call you are for sure beat against a solid player. if you think hes really that good, you might even check the turn and see what he does on the river, becuase its unusual for a good player to check call with a flush draw on the flop, especially when the board is paired, unless you bet like 1/4 pot or something ridiculous.

[sdplayerb]

Well, look at the chip stacks here.
He isn't getting humongous implied odds..that is why I say it was a bad call.

[tripdad]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, look at the chip stacks here.
He isn't getting humongous implied odds..that is why I say it was a bad call.

[/ QUOTE ]

uh...yes he is, and he just cashed in on 'em.

cheers!

[fnurt]

It's 200 to him, the implied odds are like 15-1. Easy call although people tend to overstate how simple it is to win your opponent's entire stack. For all the villain knew, the raiser could have had AQ, and he'd be lucky to win a dime off him on this flop.

[Jason Strasser]

I agree, you can never assume that when calculating implied odds. However, this flop was "The Perfect Storm", as I say.

[sdplayerb]

Exactly, and that is why I do not think 15-1 is enough to play it.
So you have a 1 in 7 to hit your set, i don't think it is near 50% of the time you will stack off on him.
I do not think it is a terrible call..but i think you answered your own question that it really is not an easy call.

[sdplayerb]

ohhh, so since it worked out, it must be the correct way to play?
So if a guy raises all in for 20x the BB and I call with 22. He flips over AA, and I spike a 2 on the river, it was the right play?

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
Exactly, and that is why I do not think 15-1 is enough to play it.
So you have a 1 in 7 to hit your set, i don't think it is near 50% of the time you will stack off on him.
I do not think it is a terrible call..but i think you answered your own question that it really is not an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think you can take most of the pots where you both miss, the call gets better, but I agree figuring the odds on the assumption that you will be able to take his entire stack if you flop your set is, umm, optimistic...

[RFJ]

I would have made a substancially bigger raise before the flop. Seems to me you were in late position and had a pretty good stack. There is no guarantee that he would have folded his 66 since he had a healthy stack. But when your in late position the value of your cards increase compared to someone in early position. I would have bet 500 at this point preflop. I like to raise larger than the normal 3x raise if i find that a good player with a healthy stack has limped in. This is because I like to know where he's at. Betting bigger before the flop gives me a better read. Many good players are not willing to part with small pockets if it's within 10% of their chip stack. Since he had 3000 as u said he had your 250 raise covered. Not to say that he would have folded ef u raised by 20%, but if u going to lose i think it's better to lose before u have all the cards out. That way it gives your opponent the opportunity to fold.

[sdplayerb]

I totally agree. If you think the guy will be extremely timid and you can pull it away from him on the turn, or he will check it all the way with AK, it does help.

But if I am so good, I don't want to burn 7% of my chips in those hopes, especially where chips won are worth less than chips lost.
I expect to double up at some point, so it is costing me not 200, but the chips i'd double up.
Or will make me a short stack quicker, thus desparate quicker, which I don't want.

Thus in a tourney I want at least 25x.