Call All-in with a 4-flush and two overcards?

[poboys]

I keep pulling this hand up in PokerTracker and thinking about it. This was the turning point for me in the tourny. Mr. Aggressive (as I've dubbed him) loved to go all-in when he caught a piece. Everytime he called he had some piece of the flop. Based on my reads, I believed that he had at least a pair. As you can see, I folded (typical, huh)?

Would you have called... and why?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (6 handed)

UTG (t2230)
MP (t1215)
CO (t2835)
Button (t170)
SB <font color="purple">(Mr.Aggressive)</font> (t735)
Hero (t815)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="666666">4 folds</font>, SB <font color="purple">(Mr.Aggressive)</font> completes, Hero checks,

Flop: (t200) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Mr.Aggressive bets t635 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t835

[stupidsucker]

on the flop you have to fold that.

Preflop pushing after the complete is an option though. One I would probably take. Am I too aggressive?

[Beavis68]

It depends on what you put him on. If both your cards are live, and he only has a on pair and the kicker is K or J you are a favorite. If he has A Q not suited to the diamonds, you are a favorite. Do you feel lucky? Would you be upset with your self knowing you went all-in with only a slight edge?

This is much better if you are pushing, it is more questinoable since you are calling. Having a stack of 765 or so with 50/100 blinds, I may make the call.

[patrick dicaprio]

i would call here. if he is really aggressive he probably would have raised with many of teh hands that beat you and even if he somehow flopped a set or two pair or something you still have the flush draw. you are both small stacks so there is also the chance that he is just making a play with nothing.

Pat

[TheCat]

I'd call. You have 15 outs if he has top pair. This is not a coin flip you are 73-27 favourite.

[pokerkai]

your at the very worst, a slight dog here, but at the same time, at the very best, only a slight favorite.
i think this is a fold, you dont want to reduce this tournament to a coin flip

p.s. i woulda pushed PF

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call. You have 15 outs if he has top pair. This is not a coin flip you are 73-27 favourite.

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't know how you get this, but I'm pretty sure it's wrong.

Best case scenario:
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s Td 4d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kd Jd 550 55.56 440 44.44 0 0.00 0.556
Tc 2c 440 44.44 550 55.56 0 0.00 0.444

Worst case scenario:
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s Td 4d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kd Jd 271 27.37 719 72.63 0 0.00 0.274
4s 4c 719 72.63 271 27.37 0 0.00 0.726

Hero is in dead-heat with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

The pot is giving a 200 overlay, and hero has him covered (barely). There's also the slim possibility that SB is doing a stop-n-go with nothing, or a good possibiltiy that SB is semi-bluffing a worse draw. This is very tough, hopefully someone better than me will have a good response.

[pokerkai]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call. You have 15 outs if he has top pair. This is not a coin flip you are 73-27 favourite.

[/ QUOTE ]

73-27???
more like 55-45

[allenciox]

I do not agree that these are best-case and worst-case scenarios... First of all, a set is almost certainly NOT there, heads-up he would WANT a call. His all-in screams "I want you to fold" --- he either has a pocket pair or he has paired the board, or he has a flush or straight draw. I see the following as likely possibilities:

98 (any)
Two diamonds (any)
Tx
7x
4x
88,99,JJ

Two overcards.

Most likely he has one pair...

By the way, the worst case scenario is he has Ad Qd, but it is unlikely. In that case you are a severe underdog.


I would call here --- you are both shortstacked.

By the way, best case scenario would be he has QJ, which gives you a huge lead.

[Tosh]

If I don't go in preflop, which I do, I don't fold that flop.

[PrayingMantis]

Is Mr. Agressive only agressive post-flop? What are his standards PF? Why isn't he raising you PF? Is completing looks like he's slow-playing something, or is it just a normal, "weak" limp by him with any garbage? If so, push PF.

Checking PF and then calling his all-in bet post-flop looks problematic to me, although it is justifiable in some ways. Generally, I believe you can still make a lot of damage even with 715T, after not calling in this 50-50 (or so) situation. It is *a bit* too early for a coin flip *call*, IMO, but this is also very dependent on the dynamics of the game, and your position (can you steal blinds, etc.).

But I wouldn't be in that spot, since I've already pushed PF... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[poboys]

[ QUOTE ]
Is Mr. Agressive only agressive post-flop? What are his standards PF? Why isn't he raising you PF? Is completing looks like he's slow-playing something, or is it just a normal, "weak" limp by him with any garbage? If so, push PF.


[/ QUOTE ]

I would expect that with an A-T or better he'd raise, low-mid PP he'd push, AA-QQ he'd slowplay (which is a posibility in this case, since he's protecting against flush draws). Most likely, I see him playing something like QT here.

I had not really considered pushing pre-flop.. maybe I should have done that. Although, I don't know how pushing pre-flop gets me out of the coin-flip dilemma you suggest I avoid now.

I think that my ITM and ROI is higher because I have started to NOT push as much pre-flop. I think I can outplay my opponent post-flop for the most part. I think players are more likely to call pre-flop in marginal situations and fold post-flop in marginal situations (which, has been the consensus here).

Not sure if I mentioned this, but after seeing that flop, I'd go all-in if he checked or bet small.

[poboys]

[ QUOTE ]
your at the very worst, a slight dog here, but at the same time, at the very best, only a slight favorite.
i think this is a fold, you dont want to reduce this tournament to a coin flip

p.s. i woulda pushed PF

[/ QUOTE ]

I have read push-preflop a few times, so I am not picking on this one response. But, how does pushing PF any less of a coin flip than pushing post-flop?

[JrJordan]

With blinds starting to creep, this may be a good hand to steal PF. I've found time and time again that if the SB just completes to see the flop, he's not willing to call a 3x BB raise. I think a raise to 250 would be enough to get him to fold, unless he is very lag. In that case, I think your check is fine.

Flop: Blinds are creeping, but you still do have some time. The raise PF would make it easier. This is a VERY good hand to push all in first, but a mediocre hand to call an all in. I'd go in the tank, but I think I would lay it down and wait for another opportunity. You still have some time.

[Jason Strasser]

This hand sucks, I hate spots like this.

The reason people are saying to push preflop, is because if there is a chance your opponent will fold it is the correct play. With a hand like KJs, you are likely no worse than a coinflip with whatever your opponent holds. Considering he is aggressive, and probably likes to limp in a lot and play the flops very fast, I would be in favor of pushing preflop.

Then again, if you honestly think there is 0% chance he folds, then you shouldn't be pushing preflop. I don't run into many players like this, but I suppose they exist. I push PF here every time.

The flop is where life gets tough. Your argument "I can outplay opponents on the flop" to me doesn't make sense against Mr.Aggressive. If he is going to catch any piece and move all-in (and likely force you to fold a lot of hands), yet probably fold PF if you push him all-in, aren't you the one getting outplayed?

On the flop, you have to think that you are a slight favorite. Once again, here comes the "I can outplay these guys" argument. If you are so sure of that, then why call off all your chips in a marginal situation. The same logic that has you checking preflop sure as hell better have you folding postflop.

You are playing heads up for a lot of money in a multi. Your opponent goes all-in for his stack, which is even to yours. Do you call with 22? When you know that likely you are in a coinflip?

Against Phil Ivey I do.

Against Mr. Aggressive, its an autofold.

So be consistent with your logic that you can outplay these guys. I personally think outplaying a guy would be to push PF and watch him fold. But if you are the type that is so confident you can outplay your opponents on the flop, then why are you asking us if you should call off your chips as probably nothing more than a 55/45 favorite?

[JrJordan]

Because pushing, or at least raise PF you get the added benefit of folding equity. When he beats you to the pot, you lose this significant advantage. Most likely if you pushed preflop, you would NOT want him to call. Take the blinds and wait for another hand.

[TheCat]

Yeah I did my sums wrong it is 54/46. Still correct to go all in though.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Although, I don't know how pushing pre-flop gets me out of the coin-flip dilemma you suggest I avoid now.


[/ QUOTE ]

Big differece. It's called "folding equity". If you call in a coin-flip situation, you are (about) 50-50. If you push in a coin flip situation (assuming his hand is about 50-50 with yours, and here I think you could very well be 7:3 favorite *PF*, which means that checking was definitely a mistake), you have the extra value of him folding, which can add a lot.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
With blinds starting to creep, this may be a good hand to steal PF. I've found time and time again that if the SB just completes to see the flop, he's not willing to call a 3x BB raise. I think a raise to 250 would be enough to get him to fold, unless he is very lag. In that case, I think your check is fine.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think raising to 250 is only good if you are trying to get worse hands to call and are willing to call an over the top all-in raise from Mr. Aggro, and are willing to call his all-in on the flop with a flop like this one. Since I don't think KJ is a good enough hand for that, i'm not a fan or that. If you are willing to fold to his raise preflop then this is a terrible bet.

When loose opponents like to limp and see lots of flops then this is an easy all-in preflop for me.

On the flop, it's close. You're probably small chip +EV with ~15 outs as a slight favorite getting a small overlay on the pot. If he'll keep doing this, wait til you are a bigger favorite.

--Greg

[poboys]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand sucks, I hate spots like this.

The reason people are saying to push preflop, is because if there is a chance your opponent will fold it is the correct play. With a hand like KJs, you are likely no worse than a coinflip with whatever your opponent holds. Considering he is aggressive, and probably likes to limp in a lot and play the flops very fast, I would be in favor of pushing preflop.
Then again, if you honestly think there is 0% chance he folds, then you shouldn't be pushing preflop. I don't run into many players like this, but I suppose they exist. I push PF here every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't understand most people's definitions of fold equity.

There is always a chance that a person will fold to an all-in. Just because there's a chance doesn't mean it's correct to call. I assumed that fold equity is the sum of the products of the probability that a person folds a given hand and the probability of being dealt that hand for the set of hands that a person would make the particular play (in this case completing the small blind).

AGain, I don't understand how going all-in preflop is a better play. It seems like in both cases at best I am a slight favorite and at worst (a big dog) but in most cases near 50:50.

Guess that's why I am a low buy-in player, though.
[ QUOTE ]
The flop is where life gets tough. Your argument "I can outplay opponents on the flop" to me doesn't make sense against Mr.Aggressive. If he is going to catch any piece and move all-in (and likely force you to fold a lot of hands), yet probably fold PF if you push him all-in, aren't you the one getting outplayed?


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

On the flop, you have to think that you are a slight favorite. Once again, here comes the "I can outplay these guys" argument. If you are so sure of that, then why call off all your chips in a marginal situation. The same logic that has you checking preflop sure as hell better have you folding postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did fold post-flop. Not sure what the basis for your argument is here.

[ QUOTE ]

So be consistent with your logic that you can outplay these guys. I personally think outplaying a guy would be to push PF and watch him fold. But if you are the type that is so confident you can outplay your opponents on the flop, then why are you asking us if you should call off your chips as probably nothing more than a 55/45 favorite?

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you have some bad CoCo Puffs this morning? What did I say that made you think that I am overconfident in my post-flop play? If I came off as arrogant, I apologize. Check out my other posts, I am just trying to get better by listening to how others would play.

In general I feel confident that I can out play my opponent post-flop. In this case, I do believe that he outplayed me (which I hinted at in the original post) and was posting this to get some insight so I can become better at post-flop play. I don't think I am being inconsistent or illogical -- I do feel like I can outplay my opponents post-flop, but I don't expect to do so every time. That would be just, well, irrational.

Well, the consensus here is to push pre-flop. I appreciate the feedback.

[Jason Strasser]

I was not trying to sound harsh or cute, and no, I did not have bad coco puffs for breakfast. Although I like coco puffs. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I still think you don't get why we want you to go all-in here. PM said this already, but say you are in a coinflip. Yet you go all in. If he folds 1/2 the time, then the money you gain on the play in the long run, due to folding equity, is 1/2 the blinds.

The whole part about outplaying your opponent postflop I mentioned because I don't understand why you'd even ask about calling here, if that is your line of thought. If you don't like pushing pf weary of a coinflip, which seems to be what you are saying, then why take a coinflip post flop?

That was all I was trying to say.

Peace,
-Jason

[Cosimo]

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't understand most people's definitions of fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Situation 1: You are in a coin-flip situation. If you both push, you are 50-50 to win the pot. Your EV (after both of you have pushed) is 0.

Situation 2: If you are the first one to push, there is a chance that he doesn't call. Let's assume this is 40%. 40% of the time you win the blinds; 30% of the time he calls and you win; 30% of the time he calls and you lose. This play is +EV.

The difference between these two scenarios is fold equity.

[ QUOTE ]
AGain, I don't understand how going all-in preflop is a better play. It seems like in both cases at best I am a slight favorite and at worst (a big dog) but in most cases near 50:50.

[/ QUOTE ]

The difference is going all-in preflop gives you a chance to win the blinds without a showdown. You can't have him not call if he has already pushed. Do you see the difference? We aren't comparing a preflop all-in call with a post-flop all-in call; we are comparing the EV of your push before he does, with the EV of calling his push. Pushing preflop does not mean being all-in preflop; it means taking the initiative and forcing him to call.

A good player will not call off all of their chips in a marginal situation. Maybe you can outplay him, but he has initiative. Given that, and that you have a higher EV if you push preflop, pushing preflop is obviously the better play.

[headhigh]

Also, I think that by just calling you put yourself into a tricky situation with this hand. I always ask myself "what am I looking for in the flop?" before I play a hand. Knowing what you know about your opponent (likes to go all-in post flop) what were you hoping to play?

Would you have been happier if your jack hit with the king kicker?
Or would you have called his all-in with a pair of kings with a jack kicker?
What if an ace hit?


Maybe you were expecting 3 diamonds to hit?
Or two pair?

[poboys]

[ QUOTE ]

Would you have been happier if your jack hit with the king kicker?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I'd go all-in or'd call an all in.

[ QUOTE ]
Or would you have called his all-in with a pair of kings with a jack kicker?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes.

[ QUOTE ]
What if an ace hit?

[/ QUOTE ]
If I had a piece, I'd push or call.

[RollaJ]

Id call 104 times out of every 100