Another Turn Bet to Ponder

[naphand]

Another one of those questionable Turn bets, right or wrong?

Against me here are two of the stupidest fish ever to crawl onto land. They sit there gasping for air, as they gradually dry up.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Naphand is SB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, MP calls, Button folds, <font color="CC3333">Naphand raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (8 SB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Naphand bets</font>, BB calls, UTG folds, MP calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Naphand bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="CC3333">MP raises</font>, Naphand calls, BB calls.

River: (11.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
Naphand checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Naphand raises</font>, BB calls, MP calls.

Final Pot: 17.50 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 17.50 BB, between Naphand, BB and MP.</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Naphand shows Jh Ah (flush, ace high).
BB shows Th As (one pair, tens).
MP shows Jc 9s (straight, queen high).
Outcome: Naphand wins 17.50 BB. </font>

I have a thumping draw again, nut-flush and straight, but surely cannot be ahead on the Turn against two and out of position. I almost bet this River flush, but felt my opponent was fishy enough to bet it. Well she did, after quite some time thinking.... /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Comments please, except Guido, as I know what he is going to say.... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[lil']

If you think you aren't winning and know they aren't folding, and if you have a lot of outs, it seems like a good time to check.

[TazQ]

I really don't mind betting the turn vs 2 people when I have a possible 18 outs (if I'm even behind here). I like betting even more vs 2 superfish who would call the flop bet with 1 overcard. Could probably make an argument to 3-bet for value.

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
Comments please, except Guido, as I know what he is going to say....

[/ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/grin.gif How do you know?

With a bazilion outs I would play it exactly the same way...

Nice hand

Guido

[lil']

If you're losing and one player drops on the turn when you bet, then it isn't worth it. If you bet and they both call it may be kind of neutral, since you will win one out of three times on the river.

In the long run it may not matter much if you check or bet.

[stripsqueez]

i bet the turn all the time

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[naphand]

[ QUOTE ]

With a bazilion outs I would play it exactly the same way...

[/ QUOTE ]

This looks somewhat optimistic to me.... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I make it (possibly) 9 outs to the flush, 3 x K, 3 x 9, 3 x A and quite possibly 3 x J (if Q unpaired, which is very possible). Maybe 21 outs, probably more like 15.

The raise meant for sure I was against 2-pair or better (based on my read of the player), so I had to hit the straight or flush or fold. The player concerned would not play TP like this.

I was on two minds about the Turn bet, along the lines of the principle that lil touts, but given I had a pack of outs and both players with incredibly fishy (just look at that River 2-cold call from BB with 2nd-pair... /images/graemlins/grin.gif) I figured it was reasonable, though probably close to neutral in terms of EV. That's what it felt like. Does having the worst position make this less favourable as a play? I prefer this with position, but my draw seemed too good to let this get checked through. Am turning into a LAG? Perhaps playing to many bad players does this to you?

[Zele]

I'd check-call. No way you're winning it right there, and you might end up knocking out a paying customer.

[naphand]

Just how many outs do you need to make this bet?

A customer who folds is not a paying customer, you have to charge them. These guys will can any draw and almost any part of the board, if they cannot call the Turn they won't call the River.

[Zele]

I am assuming someone will bet it for me, and that I run a serious risk of being raised if I bet. At the very least, the "button" often will take a shot here if it's checked to him and he thinks the initial aggressor has run out of gas, and more aggressive players will often take the shot as a raise. Even though you're more than happy to call, you don't have enough outs/customers to want to jam this pot.

[naphand]

You haven't answered my question.

[Guido]

Zele, you seem one of the more careful posters at this forum but I think with about 15 or more outs betting out is easy. Sometimes they fold and when you check one of them will bet anyway (even if they were planning to fold). I don't think you will get raised very often. And even when they do it's about even money with two other players. You are going to call a bet anyway so why not bet out yourself?

Guido

[Zele]

Ok, I've thought about it overnight and I retract my check. You guys are right, it is needlessly weak, and if you get called by both of them you are getting value. That and it is still possible that you have the best hand.

[Zele]

Revised opinion: 14.