Make this call or not?

[ctide]

This is from the $10+1 Rebuy tourney on Stars last night.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (9 handed)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO (t4675)
Button (t30220)
<font color="C00000">Hero (t12460)</font>
<font color="C00000">BB (t3825)</font>
UTG (t4815)
UTG+1 (t24301)
MP1 (t1715)
MP2 (t15600)
MP3 (t7470)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t400, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls t400, CO folds, Button folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t1600) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB bets t3400 (All-In), UTG folds, MP3 folds, Hero ????


I figured him for a King or a Queen, but not both. My rationale in this situation is that either a club or an ace would take this pot down for me, and I was looking at a final payoff of T8625 for a T3400 bet.

An alternative question, if you're short stacked here (reverse the stack sizes), but you still feel your read is correct, do you make this call or hope for a better situation?

[fnurt]

If all your outs are good, the call is acceptable, since you're not putting that much of your stack at risk.

Most players wouldn't play a hand as good as a set this way, but he might have a hand like 9c8c, which would cut into your outs. On the other hand he could have a naked draw in which case you are a big favorite.

All in all I make this call, but the main thing that allows you to take the gamble is stack size and the fact that you're closing the action. If I had the short stack, but still had something reasonable to work with like 10xBB, there is no way I would make the call.

[Chief911]

I'd lay it down. 1 in 3 is not enough times for me to hit my flush. Why risk a big part of your stack in horrible odds, when you no doubt could find a better situation? He made a good move punishing anyone who wanted to try to draw to a flush, why allow yourself to be punished?

F.O.L.D.

Nick

[fnurt]

What's 1 in 3? With 12 outs twice you are about a 55-45 underdog. You can lay it down if you like, I wouldn't fault you, but no way can you call it horrible odds.

In my experience, people do make this bet as a semi-bluff with a naked draw more often than they should. I wouldn't justify my call for that reason alone, but you'd be surprised how often A-high is ahead here.

[Chief911]

I guess alot of it depends on the read of the UTG. What kind of player is he to bet that UTG?

I meant 1 in 3 not including the assumption that an ace gives him the best hand. His UTG and postflop bet seems an awful lot like AoKs protecting against a flush drawer.

I think he's behind, and am not sure the A would put him ahead.

I just hate calling off that much on a draw with less than 50/50 odds.

Nick

[gergery]

How do you get a payoff of 8625? I calc that calling means risking 3400 to win 5000 in chips, so he’s laying you ~1.5 to 1. If all your outs are good then this is about EV neutral, and not worth the higher variance since you are more likely to lose the hand. There are a lot of shorter stacks at the table, so you should also have some bully equity if you stay big.

If you really were risking 3400 to win 8600 this would be an easy call.

--Greg

[Chief911]

There's 5000 in the pot (Including the all in bet), you'd have to call 3400. Total pot won would be 8400.

Nick

[ctide]

For whatever reason, the hand converter didn't include the antes (the remaining 225 uncounted for). So yes, 3400 to win 5225.

Anyways, my read was correct, he had K5o, so it was 45-55, but I missed and that was that.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
There's 5000 in the pot (Including the all in bet), you'd have to call 3400. Total pot won would be 8400.

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

You are double counting the 3400.

The preflop pot is 1600. His opponent put in 3400. So, he has to call 3400 to win 5000.
With your math, you would always be getting a minimum of 2:1. Let's say you are in the BB in hand 1 of the WSOP. It is folded to the small blind who goes all in for 10k. Are you calling 10k to win 20k, and thus are getting 2:1?
No, you are calling 10k to win 10k....1:1.

[SossMan]

Since he's really only getting 1.5:1, I would fold here. There is no gaurantee that his ace outs are good here. I would discount them to maybe 1.5 outs. So, 10.5 outs twice is about, what, 58% or so. It is probably about EV nuetral and thus I would go ahead and look for a better spot.