AQo against a blind steal

[Luke]

The button is semi-tight and of moderate aggression preflop. I don't know much more beyond that.

Anyone bet the river? Who calls the river if the button bets? Who folds to a turn raise?

All comments welcome...

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Luke is BB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button raises, SB folds, Luke 3-bets, Button calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Luke bets, Button calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Luke bets, Button calls.

River: (6.16 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Luke checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 6.16 BB

[MercTec]

Smells like a medium PP....I would check it down.

[lil']

If my opponent raises at any point I am very likely finished with the hand.

It helps to know the tendencies of your opponents in a spot like this. There's nothing wrong with the way you played it. I would probably call a bet on the river, as I very much want to see what he has, and I may still have the best hand. After you see what he had, you can use the info in the future.

Does he call with ace high?
Does he bluff rivers?
Does he just call when he has a little pair?
Does he make horrible post-flop calls?
Does he slowplay a big hand until the river?

All good stuff to know about the guy who'll be trying to steal your blind for the next few hours.

[The Armchair]

I would have just called the turn here and check-raised the flop, assuming he's the type to bet any flop which he raised preflop. For the same amount of money (4 small bets), you get better information. As it stands now, he may have a K, but is going to call you down as he fears AK (and rightly), but you can't give him a free card.

I'm also wondering what he could possibly have that is worth a turn-bet call here. A spade or diamond draw? If this was a blind steal, he may even have a 7. I think you're probably losing here, and if you've won, he can't reasonably call a river bet. (Okay, maybe if he has an Ace with a weaker kicker, but even then....) The check is right.

[colgin]

I think that check-calling the river is best here.

Given your description of the Button, I don't think that you get a better hand that has called down so far to fold on the river when a blank hits if you bet it. Yes, you can safely fold to a river raise but I don't think your hand is good more than one-half the time you get called here.

Whether you call a river bet is a tough one. Your check may have induced a bluff from the semi-aggressive player. However, what hand was he calling you down with so far that you beat. If he had made a steal-raise pre-flop with Jx or Qx would he have called your flop and turn bets after you had three-bet pre-flop. I probably call but don't feel too good about it.

Yes, I would have folded to a turn raise.

All the best,

Colgin

[J.R.]

I think you played well, but perhaps unwittingly:

Who calls the river if the button bets?

The river check is clearly a bluff inducing check with nut no pair. Worse aces will call a river bet, but I think there is more value in a check against a default 3-6 player in this headsup spot, although your betting pattern makes it fairly obvious to an observant and decent opponent that you have an A and will call the river bet.

Who folds to a turn raise?

A turn raise is no fun, since you are getting 7:1, which is enough to draw to six outs, but 1) you may not have 6 outs and 2) you will often make a crying call on the river because the pot is laying you 9:1 with nut no pair in a heads up blind steal spot with only on paint card on the board (unless the river is a J).

But many times you will be ahead on the turn as well with 2 flush draws, a paired K (I think people like to bluff paired big cards) and the headsup/blind steal dynamic. If just for image purposes I call this turn. Maybe they won't bluff again on the river, maybe you catch. I think what to do if he bets the river is even harder than deciding what to do if raised on the turn. (Maybe that's a good enough reason to fold on the turn)

The River if you are raised on the turn and call

I think my default is to lean towards looking up unknown players in a Party 3-6 on the river in similar spots. The button is only semi-tight and moderately aggressive prelfop, so I think he fits the profile of a player who could be bluffing here (he is nto a rock). In adiditon, the board is not that scary, the pot size is favorable, and there are 2 possible flush draws (if they don't come on the river) that your oppoent could be bluffing, so I lean towards a river call. Given the headsup dynamic your preflop 3-bet doesn't lend much credence to your opponent's postflop aggression were he to raise the turn and bet the river because the 3-bet can mean and lot and doesn't mean big hand.

A river call (to the extent your opponent's are observant) hopefully sets you up to not get messed with too mcuh in the future, while a fold does just the opposite. For what its worth, I think opponent's are less observant of thin "I'm gonna look you up" river calls, but definitely notice when soeoene appears to have been pushed around and makes a kinda big river or turn fold. I think keeping the wild ones from taking shots at you is important in this game.

I really like how one of the reasons I gave for not calling a turn raise is the desire to also make a crying river call, and then I argue for making a crying river call. This spot is tricky, I'll have to ponder it some more.

[Luke]

I think you played well, but perhaps unwittingly:

Thanks for the vote of confidence. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

The river check is clearly a bluff inducing check with nut no pair.

Right. I had every intention of calling a river bet but I'm not sure my opponent was slick enough to know what I was doing and act appropriately. Read: He MAY still bluff with missed draws or check behind with a pocket pair.


The River if you are raised on the turn and call

I think my default is to lean towards looking up unknown players in a Party 3-6 on the river in similar spots. The button is only semi-tight and moderately aggressive prelfop, so I think he fits the profile of a player who could be bluffing here (he is nto a rock).

I agree. This player seemed to be the type to take semi-bluff raise stabs at the turn. If I made the decision to call the turn, I'm pretty much printing my ticket for the showdown.

I think keeping the wild ones from taking shots at you is important in this game.

Yes it is and there seem to be so many of them. Maybe it's just because I've started playing more lately, but I'm seeing so much semi-bluffing on the turn in shorthanded spots in these games.

So many times I feel it is correct to at least call down if the pot is of nice size and I have something to showdown. I've been downright shocked at what some of these guys turn over after I make TWO "crying" calls.

Luke

[Luke]

The button turned over AQ as well and we chopped.

Luke

[HUSKER'66]

I think you played it fine. I think you won this against a Ace with a weaker kicker. He might have A/9 and the KK on the flop scared him, but I doubt it.He doesn't hold a K that's for sure. If he had 9 he would be smart to come back at you on the river when you checked, so that's why I discount that holding too.

I'd release to a turn raise, and probably make a crying call on the river for future info.You've gone this far, one BB is worth it to get a read on his play.

Just my thoughts.

Husker