who's the sucker ?

[stripsqueez]

Ah2h UTG 4 handed in a 10/20 game - i open raise - the button folds - the SB 3 bets and the BB folds - i call

flop is 6s 7s 10h - check/check

turn is Ac - bet/call

river is 2c - bet/call

its not normal but is it any good ?

different hand similar story - i get Ac5c in the SB - UTG limps and its folded to me and i complete - the BB checks

flop is 5h Qd 3c - i bet out - BB folds, UTG raises - UTG is a chook so i 3 bet - UTG caps and i call

turn is Jc - check/check

river is Ah - bet/raise/call

not normal

3 days ago i started a survey whilst playing - the question is set in a specific scenario - pre-flop raiser in reasonable position checks the flop - how often does the raiser have a monster ?

i have 14 examples - any guesses as to the results so far ?

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Guido]

Why not raise the river in hand 1?

I would play hand 2 the same except for 3-betting the flop probably.

My guess is about 12-14 times against an unknown

Guido

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]

3 days ago i started a survey whilst playing - the question is set in a specific scenario - pre-flop raiser in reasonable position checks the flop - how often does the raiser have a monster ?

i have 14 examples - any guesses as to the results so far ?


[/ QUOTE ]

Please sit at my tables more often so I can skew your results. In July I check 8% of times after raising PF, and I know all of those are times I've missed. In any event, I would guess 9 of 14 times the checks have signified monsters.


In the A2 hand, I think calling the turn is fine. I'd still be compelled to raise the river.

The A5 hand seems fine to me.

[jfresh]

I think the first example could easily be either a flopped set or a passively played AK... but I would guess a majority of the time a check on the flop means a monster, as
1) the aggressiveness in 10/20 usually (90%) has a preflop raiser betting on the flop
2) most players are usually textbook with "trying to trap with a monster" by being weak on the flop

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not raise the river in hand 1?

[/ QUOTE ]

because i thought he might have a slowplayed rock - he was a chook - regardless of the result i hate how i played it - i would like to fold the turn or raise the river but not what i did

[ QUOTE ]
I would play hand 2 the same except for 3-betting the flop probably

[/ QUOTE ]

the flop was entirely opponent dependant - i hate what i did this time too - i want to check/call the river or 3 bet

perhaps its just me - i dislike anything that looks like compromise

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[chezlaw]

A lot of the time the flop check is weak and a lot of the rest of the time it's not a monster.

I guess 3 out of 14 were monsters.

Hand 1: I would fold pre-flop and then raise the river.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I would play hand 2 the same except for 3-betting the flop probably

[/ QUOTE ]

the flop was entirely opponent dependant - i hate what i did this time too - i want to check/call the river or 3 bet

perhaps its just me - i dislike anything that looks like compromise

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[/ QUOTE ]

Perspective. I look at check/calling the river as a compromise to resisting the urge of 3-betting a river we know is probably a mistake to 3-bet. I think betting with the intent of calling a raise is a perfectly fine plan

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
A lot of the time the flop check is weak and a lot of the rest of the time it's not a monster.

I guess 3 out of 14 were monsters

[/ QUOTE ]

your paradiseness is showing

12 of 14 were monsters

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[chezlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
your paradiseness is showing

12 of 14 were monsters

[/ QUOTE ]

Blimey /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Its happened once since I posted and they folded the turn.

Leaving Paradise will be tough. Perhaps I should consider Party as forbidden fruit.

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
12 of 14 were monsters


[/ QUOTE ]
Did I win a prize? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Zele]

Hand 1- raise the river, for pete's sake!

I think you're overestimating the flop check-monster correlation (though it does exist), but more importantly, in that hand, the monster in question could have easily been KK QQ or JJ, and many players would even consider AK or AQ(!) to be "monsters" here.

[chezlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're overestimating the flop check-monster correlation (though it does exist), but more importantly, in that hand, the monster in question could have easily been KK QQ or JJ, and many players would even consider AK or AQ(!) to be "monsters" here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, I took monster to mean at least 2 pairs. Can we raise the bar for 'monster' until 3 out of 14 becomes correct.

[stripsqueez]

monster is an uncertain term but it means monster in the eyes of the guy who holds it

first hand he turned over the particularly horrible 9c8c

second hand the monster was the even uglier Q3o

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
the monster in question could have easily been KK QQ or JJ, and many players would even consider AK or AQ(!) to be "monsters" here.

[/ QUOTE ]

the monster will always be a hand that hit the flop hard so wouldnt include any of the hands you mention - ie the mindset is "holy crap i am going to win - best to slowplay in case everybody folds because that would make me sad"

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Zele]

I think you are imparting too much rationality to the typical player here. Sure, if you or I were going to slowplay a hand, it would have to be a lock, or close to it. But I've seen many players at PP limp p/f in a 5-way field, and only start raising the turn or even the river with AA or KK. That's a different example, but it illustrates the mentality.

Ok, AK and AQ were extremes, and only a seriously crappy player would want to slowplay them (as opposed to just playing them passively for other reasons), but trust me, I've seen it done.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
12 of 14 were monsters

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is way-high. I would have guessed 5 at most. Perhaps some folks w/ PokerTracker can do a little analysis on this w/ some bigger sample sizes, but that seems way, way too high to me.