Decisions Decisions

[Monkeyslacks]

Hand follows the random "Family Guy" quote offered for your amusment.

Auctioner: Our first item is a pair of panties confiscated from a prostitute.
Quagmire: Fifty bucks.
Auctioner: She had nine STDs.
Quagmire: Forty-five bucks.
Auctioner: And when we caught her she wet herself.
Quagmire: Fifty bucks.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds.

Final Pot: 11 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 10 BB, won by Hero.</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to Hero.</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Outcome: Hero wins 11 BB. </font>


So my questions are thus:

1. Given no reads what's your play on the flop?

2. Is the river raise +EV (again assuming the average PP player and no reads.)

[The Dude]

1. Given no reads I'm definately folding this flop. It's massively expensive to call down, and you have very little chance of improving when you are behind. Since there are no callers between you and him it makes it much less likely he's on a draw.

2. Easy river raise. Easy.

[Monkeyslacks]

Your answers reconcile with each other. My play did not.

Is everyone else dumping this to the one overcard?

[bernie]

I agree with Dude. Unless this is the type of player that will c/r this with a (smaller) draw. Some do, not realizing they're killing their implied odds bumping everyone out. Usually this is at least a Q here and you have 2 outs. 1 of them a titch tainted, but HU, it may not be as bad.

If you slide one off, you can easily fold the turn if you miss. I would slide one off if i feel i've been folding a little too much on flops.

b

[Nate tha' Great]

Calling this down is not as bad as everyone suggests. I plugged this into PokerStove, giving the SB the following range of hands:

AQs, KQs, QJs, QTs, Q9s, AQo, KQo, QJo, QTo
A5s, A4s, 44-TT
76s
JTd, 98d, ATd (diamonds only)

I deliberately excluded some of the other "legitimate" diamond hands because I'm not sure how many players would play a strong draw that way.

On the other hand, I did include some paired hands that you're ahead of.

Against that range of hands, you have 37% equity, which is way more than you need to call down. And while we can quibble with the particular range of hands included here, I don't think it's out of line with the range of hands that a 'typical' party 15/30 player would make this play with.

If you have a better read on the player, then obviously you can consider a fold, but I don't think that should be your 'typical' play.

[PokerHund]

You only play 1 clear out. Lay down on the flop. He's checkraising you with 2 players behind him. Not very likely he's on a draw. In case he has something like Ad4d you want the Td in your hand and not on the board.

[hockey1]

This seems to happen a lot on the party 15-30 tables. I'd say about half the time SB is a stone cold bluff or, if the standard silly-loose SB called your preflop raise with 84o or whatever, then with bottom pair. Yes, he could well have a Q, and it may cost you somewhere between 1.5 and 2.5 BB to call this one down, but if my experience is representative, then you're roughly even money on the flop here, which means it's worth doing.

btw -- you might try 3-betting the flop. If he caps or smooth calls and bets the turn then you're probably behind and should fold. If he calls and checks the turn then you have the option of betting the turn or checking through, which will save you a SB if you're behind. I'd usually bet the turn and, if called, check the river.

Sometimes, especially when I'm unfamiliar with the player and there's only 1 overcard, I will either:

1) Reraise the flop and check it down if I don't improve

2) Fold on the turn to a bet if he caps the flop

`dude

ps. great quote

[bernie]

Good point.

Now that i look at it, SB could be doing this play with a 4 or 5. I think if im seeing this turn, im 3 betting the sb on the flop. I think the sb's raise is more protection/maximize chances of winning by knocking out overcards than draw, unless he also has overcards with his draw. Though some think the way to 'maximize' a baby flush draw is to knock out everyone who will pay you off.

b

[DcifrThs]

Funeral home Manager (FHM): this is our most modest vessel. it will cost $1000.
Peter: i'll give ya $50.
FHM: the vessel costs $1000.
Peter: $2000
FHM: [stammers]
Peter: $50.
Brian: im terribly sorry, he doesn't know how to negotiate.

gotta say slacks, i always like your posts. also, i think you should also come play thursday's PL game next week (might be my last time there...probably not though...i dunno, i guess we'll see)

sb checkraises on party 15 with one overcard and draw laden small blind type of flop. here are your options as i see 'em:

1) fold, he has a queen, you have little room to improve and unless you widen the range of hands, you don't ahve the equity to call down.

2) he has a draw and will likely continue to bet and bluff regardless. your option here is to call down and fold if it gets real diamondy.

3) reraise (my favorite and the line i'd probably take here). when you bet, the sb now thinks theres a chance you don't have a pair or a queen and will checkraise you very light. possibly with any 5 or 4 not to mention all the pairs in between 5's and Q's (unlikely TT or JJ though as you can imagine).

on the flop those are the 3 ways i see to look at it. personally, my plan would be to reraise on the flop, check behind on the turn, and call one bet on the river.

my reasoning is as follows...i think its the best way to get to a showdown while saving some money. yes you give a turn freebee, but can you fold to a c-r? i don't know...therefore i don't bet. you know after the turn check he'll bet ALL of those hands he'll checkraise you with, some of them are behind you some of them beat you, thats why i like to get there for 2.5 bb's instead of 3bb's.

problems with this line are a) what to do if he caps the flop? and b) what to do if he calls your 3bet and leads the turn?

those notwithstanding i think the average party c-r'er will call your 3 bet and check to you on the turn and bet any river thus giving you the 2.5 bb showdown that i think you have the equity for: 11sb's to you for the flop call, so you're about to spend 2bb's (you reraise, check the turn and call a bet) here to win 8 (your river call is 8:1 so i'm not counting your bet in there...but if you do you're spending 2bb's to win 9) assuming the action goes as i laid out. thats 8:2 or 4:1 or 20% equity needed for the call down. i think you have that here and go with the reraise, check, call flop turn and river play.

what do you think?
-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd usually bet the turn and, if called, check the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you have the logic here reversed. can you fold to a turn check raise?

how much do you win by checking behind the turn and calling a river bet? how much do you risk?

are you sure you're ahead enough to bet the turn after he calls your 3 bet? can you improve to beat a hand that would c-r and currently beats you? if so, what are the chances?

i think the answers to all of these questions lead to a turn check river call as i discuss in my post. its the best compromise imo between making him pay for a draw and getting to a showdown (more the latter than the former).

-Barron

[hockey1]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'd usually bet the turn and, if called, check the river.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



i think you have the logic here reversed. can you fold to a turn check raise?

how much do you win by checking behind the turn and calling a river bet? how much do you risk?

are you sure you're ahead enough to bet the turn after he calls your 3 bet? can you improve to beat a hand that would c-r and currently beats you? if so, what are the chances?

i think the answers to all of these questions lead to a turn check river call as i discuss in my post. its the best compromise imo between making him pay for a draw and getting to a showdown (more the latter than the former).


[/ QUOTE ]

Fair points, but I still think the turn bet and river check is the better line. First, you can safely fold to a turn check raise. With that in mind, betting the turn and checking the river unimproved is superior for the simple reason that you might get SB to fold -- overcards to your TT, a draw, a smaller pair (ok, maybe you don't want a smaller pair to fold here), or maybe even a weak Q. This necessarily increases your chances of winning the hand, while risking exactly the same amount (and winning the same, if you win on a showdown) as your approach.

btw -- one thing that I'm certain of is that your approach is the opposite of the correct play if SB is on a draw. You give him a free card on the turn and then bet the river where the only possibilities are a fold if he doesn't hit or a raise if he does -- the worst of all possible worlds.



Tell me if I'm off base here.

[DcifrThs]

you're not off base.

my issues are that

1) i don't know if i can fold to a turn c-r.

2) i don't know if he's on a draw.

if i KNEW either of these things then yes i bet the turn. but i don't. and i want to see a showdown.

-Barron

[1800GAMBLER]

How do you feel when the player correctly raised you with 5,x?

Players on party do this too much with any part of the flop and players on party do hit the low part of this flop.

I like the idea of a turn raise and a free showdown.

[Nate tha' Great]

What's wrong with betting the turn *and* the river?

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
What's wrong with betting the turn *and* the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

turn: party players c-r a lot here and i don't want any of it.

River: im assuming im bet into given the turn check...if he checks i bet and pay off THAT check raise b/c its more likely to be desperate than some ratio of beatable:nonbeatable hands.

the thing is, when tens, you hate giving overcards, but you can already be beat. after i 3bet the flop if he checks (which he would with a monster, or a queen, or any 4 or 5 or draw) and i bet, he will c-r with almost ALL of those some of the time. see the dilema? thus you risk giving J5 a free card when it will call but save a bet AND THE POT for yourself when that same J5 occasionally check raises you and you incorrectly fold.

i definately would bet the river if checked to.

maybe im wrong and this is how you play against good/tricky players but i use it on party in this situation and it has done me well (sometimes its an odd straight draw that bluffs and wouldn't even call a turn bet).

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

the more i think about it the more i think calling and raising the turn is a good play.

its a line i've never used in this exact situation and i think i'll try next time.

-Barron

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What's wrong with betting the turn *and* the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

turn: party players c-r a lot here and i don't want any of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I guess what I meant to say is that it's almost certainly correct to bet a turn blank. The risk of a check-raise - or, more specifically, the risk of a bluff check-raise - goes down pretty dramatically if a brick falls, and I think it would be safe to fold to a check-raise under that scenario. The cards I'd want to check through are a 4, a 5 or a Q. A diamond is a tricky case, since she *probably* does not have two diamonds, but could have one diamond, and could bluff ... I think I'd bet the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, but check behind a lower diamond, planning to call a bet regardless of the river card that fell.

If I'm going to raise the flop and play the hand hard, it's because I think I'm collecting value from doing so, plain and simple, and I want to continue to do so throughout the hand. If you're looking for a strategy that hedges risk and reward, I think calling the flop and raising the turn is better, in part because it charges more to a hand that's drawing, and in part because it eliminates the possibility of a semibluff check-raise on the turn.

Honestly, though, I think the plain old call down is a pretty robust play.

[DcifrThs]

you bring up good points here nate.

i don't know if you took statistics but your description of the call down as "robust" is quite fitting.

i did mention that the more i thought about it the more i liked the call the flop raise the turn. i was just thinking in terms of saving most when behind/earning a little less while ahead line was a safe "hedge" ... you explained yourself well and all in all i think we're splitting hairs here (whats the variance of the play in terms of bb/hr?)..

good post though
-Barron

[Monkeyslacks]

[ QUOTE ]
i think you should also come play thursday's PL game next week (might be my last time there...probably not though...i dunno, i guess we'll see)

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll go. Give me a call and we'll coordinate the ride down. (I've got no car, but we can split cab fare...)

[Monkeyslacks]

I think the average Party Poker player has a wide range of hands here. With the level of aggression in these games, I don't think I can lay this one down on the flop. I think Nate summed it up fairly well:

[ QUOTE ]
AQs, KQs, QJs, QTs, Q9s, AQo, KQo, QJo, QTo
A5s, A4s, 44-TT
76s
JTd, 98d, ATd (diamonds only)

[/ QUOTE ]

I would add complete bluff to the list as fairly significant.

The question then becomes 3-bet or call down as has been discussed below. I hate raising the turn.

[DcifrThs]

will do.

see ya next week.

and what do you think of comments on your hand?

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
The question then becomes 3-bet or call down as has been discussed below. I hate raising the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

i had the 100% exact same initial reaction. think about it though...it has its merits.

-Barron

[Monkeyslacks]

Ok lets start with this:

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say about half the time SB is a stone cold bluff or, if the standard silly-loose SB called your preflop raise with 84o or whatever, then with bottom pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

But,

[ QUOTE ]
you might try 3-betting the flop. If he caps or smooth calls and bets the turn then you're probably behind and should fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Party Poker players do this with a lot less than the queen. I'm not sure my opponent's range of hands narrows as quickly as you think given the above action.

Is the *potential* of saving 1sb worth letting a stone cold bluff get off cheaply and possibly costing you the pot when you have the best hand?

[Monkeyslacks]

More "Family Guy" - one of personal favorites.

Chris: Dad, what's the blow-hole for?
Peter: I'll tell you what it's not for, son. And when I do, you'll understand why I can never go back to Sea World.


[ QUOTE ]
i think the average party c-r'er will call your 3 bet and check to you on the turn and bet any river thus giving you the 2.5 bb showdown that i think you have the equity for:

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's where I'm not sold. I'm not sure I want a free turn card. I'm also not sure my opp pays off on any river if I'm ahead. In other words, if the river is the A /images/graemlins/club.gif or something, he might checkcall a queen or he might checkfold a missed draw.

[Monkeyslacks]

[ QUOTE ]
the more i think about it the more i think calling and raising the turn is a good play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's why I hate it.

We lose a bluff here. We also lose hands that are drawing to 2 and 3 outs. We also lose the pot when we get 3-bet without seeing our own outs.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the more i think about it the more i think calling and raising the turn is a good play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's why I hate it.

We lose a bluff here. We also lose hands that are drawing to 2 and 3 outs. We also lose the pot when we get 3-bet without seeing our own outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

thems some good reasons.

i was looking at it from what we gain from draws and doubtful A4's and the like.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
More "Family Guy" - one of personal favorites.

Chris: Dad, what's the blow-hole for?
Peter: I'll tell you what it's not for, son. And when I do, you'll understand why I can never go back to Sea World.


[ QUOTE ]
i think the average party c-r'er will call your 3 bet and check to you on the turn and bet any river thus giving you the 2.5 bb showdown that i think you have the equity for:

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's where I'm not sold. I'm not sure I want a free turn card. I'm also not sure my opp pays off on any river if I'm ahead. In other words, if the river is the A /images/graemlins/club.gif or something, he might checkcall a queen or he might checkfold a missed draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

the check on the turn is not a primarily free card play. it is to do 2 things: 1) induce a bet from the flop c'r-er, or 2) induce him to call with a hand he wouldn't had you bet the turn.

obviously you don't like giving a naked jack a shot but i think overall its worth it.

you do have a point about the river card possibly affecting his calling frequencies. so in that case you end up checking cards that would tighten his calling standards and betting cards that loosen said standard (obviously its only slightly one way or the other ). but i do think an Ac may change his mind to fold from call given the action enough without a queen where he would have called otherwise that it may be best to check THAT card behind. good point on that, slacks.

also, i think lots of 4's and 5's WILL pay you off after you check, thats the second purpose of it. the first purpose is to induce that bet with a hand he wouldn't even call the turn with OR a hand he was drawing with and missed. another benefit is that you can't be raise if you're calling (can't fold a winner) and you definately have the equity for it (calling). sometimes you run into some two pair or river caught card or a queen or something but thems the breaks. this is just one line to take and i'm arguing the reasons i like for taking it...

-Barron