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View Full Version : SnG results from $10 to $100 levels and comments


HC5831
07-14-2004, 02:41 AM
Here’s an update on my progress. Feel free to bounce your #’s against mine. Most of the games are from Party.

10+1 NLHE – 100 tourneys
1st: 18
2nd: 13
3rd: 16
4th: 15
$5.10/tourney
ROI: 46%
In the $: 47%

20+2 NLHE – 100 tourneys
1st: 17
2nd: 11
3rd: 14
4th: 13
$7.20/tourney
ROI: 32%
In the $: 42%

30+3 NLHE – 100 tourneys
1st: 18
2nd: 13
3rd: 15
4th: 10
$15.30/tourney
ROI: 46%
In the $: 46%

50+5 NLHE – 178 tourneys (2 tables at once)
1st: 31
2nd: 25
3rd: 30
4th: 16
$26.46/tourney
ROI: 48%
In the $: 48%

50+5 NLHE – 100 tourneys (3 tables at once)
1st: 8
2nd: 14
3rd: 16
4th: 14
$.20/tourney
ROI: 0%
In the $: 38%

There you go. I moved up to the $100+9 NLHE SnG’s on Party 2 weeks ago. During my last 10 tourneys at the $50 level I noticed that I was not playing aggressive enough on the bubble. So when I moved up to the $100 level I played more aggressive on the bubble. Unfortunately I overcorrected and became too aggressive on the bubble, busting out 4th too much by pushing marginal hands. This coupled with some horrendous luck made my 1st 20 games at the $100 level pretty rough. I lost $480 in 20 games over 3 days. I could figure out what was wrong and thought it was luck, but I was getting ready to drop back down.

Fortunately I realized that I overcorrected and adjusted my bubble play to how I was playing before I got out of sink. It’s interesting how a slight change in my play can have a huge outcome in my results. It’s a careful balancing act for me on the bubble and it takes a lot of discipline to keep the right amount of aggressiveness. As soon as I made my adjustment I did well. 60 tourneys later I have a ROI of 37%. I’ve been hoping for an ROI of at least 36%, so I’m doing well so far. We’ll see how I’m doing after 300 tourneys.

At the suggestion of some of the posters I tried to play 3 at once at the $50 level. I did very poorly. I played a full 100 there and found that I didn’t have enough of a read on the players to do well when it got down to 4 and under. This read on players is essential to playing on the bubble and in the money. I went back down to 2 tables at once and played another 78 games. I absolutely killed the tables. I then felt that I was ready to move up to the $100 level with the comments above.

I realize now that I was not ready to move up to the $100 level after 100 games at the $50 level. I’ve learned an good amount about NLHE SnG’s by playing those additional 178 games. I’m glad I decided to play some more before moving up. It would have been a mistake to move up after 100 games as I had in the $10 and $20 tables. A thank you to everyone who cautioned me on moving up too soon. I listened to your advice, examined my game and my comfort level and waiting. I’m glad I did.

To those of you who questioned my earnings expectations, thank you also. You were wrong in my case, but it was good advice. I do not base my earning estimates on results, but on the quality of my opponents and my game. I knew that I was the best or 2nd best at every $50 table I sat at. And I feel that way at the $100 table. I fully expect to continue to be successful at this level based on the play I’ve seen, not my small sample size. Every player needs to be honest with their game and their results. It’s easy to blame poor play on luck. There are swings yes, but they even out. If you’re losing over a significant sample, then there is something wrong with your game. In addition, everyone not only needs to look at their results, but compare themselves to their peers. Do you feel that your in the top 3 when you sit down? If you don’t, that could be a problem even if your results are good.

$100 tables are somewhat harder than the $50 tables. There is definitely a jump there. However it is hard to gauge because I have continually improved as I have moved up in limits. The bottom line is, if you feel like the top 2 players at the $50 level, then you try should move up if you have the bankroll, significant results, and confidence. It did take a little to get used to playing for twice the amount of $$. The swings are twice as large and you have to be mentally strong enough to handle them.

Ok, this has just been a brain dumb here. I hope some of you find this useful. I would love to see results for the $100 and $200 NLHE SnG tables. Also, you shouldn’t bother posting results unless you have at least 100 tourneys. Even then, that doesn’t mean a lot. I’ve had major swings from 100 to 100. I’d guess 300 would be enough to give you an idea of where you stand.

HC

HC5831
07-14-2004, 02:44 AM
More info.

I play 2 at once on 2 moniters. It's really nice to have 2 moniters to play on. I usually play 6-8 a day. Sometimes I play as many as 10 a day. I usually end up playing around 120 tourneys a month. I started playing SnG's a year ago, and I've been playing poker for 4 years now. I play strictly NLHE SnG's right now.

HC

AleoMagus
07-14-2004, 04:19 AM
Hi HC,

Good to hear that the 100+9 step went well for you. I think that when moving up in stakes, the biggest hurdles are as much psychological as opposition based. Given all the inspiring support you recieved /images/graemlins/grin.gif last time you posted about this intended step, you seem to be very focused and grounded by knowledge of your own abilities.

If you find that you are beating the 109s for even 25% after 100-200, are you intending to take the final step?

In a way, I am starting to think that might be a good idea for you if you have a big enough bankroll. You have put in a lot of sngs, but it's kinda strange to be comparing numbers from different levels. It'd be better for you if you got in 500-1000 at one level so you could make some really serious confidence calculations and at this point, that might be best acheived by just getting to the $215s.

Then again, don't listen to me on that one as I have played less than 10 $109s ever and have never set foot in a $215. I'm sure guys like Zee, Daliman, or Jason will have a lot more accurate advice as to what you can expect going from 109 to 215. I'd be interested to hear your plans in this regard anyways.

Regards
Brad S

stupidsucker
07-14-2004, 04:57 AM
This gives me some confidence. I was semi worried about my next step up to the 30's which is comming very soon. Got my bankroll up to $1500 from $200 playing 10's(66) then 20's.(73).

I have heard that it might be better just to skip right to the 50's because the skill level is about the same, but you get more chips at the 50's..

what do you think?

I am not touching the 30's till I reach a $1900 bankroll.(Taking 1k out for living expenses) I may even wait till I have a solid base of 300 SnGs in the 20's so I have a better idea of $/hr at each level.

BradleyT
07-14-2004, 10:39 AM
Nice post.

HC5831
07-14-2004, 01:40 PM
Hey Brad,

I totally respect your posts and often wonder why you and others do not move up in stakes. It's obvious that you have a lot of knowledge about poker. I don't know your results, but you and others should definately be moving up instead of playing 500-1000 games. I've found every step to be harder, but have also found that I have improved to handle them.

I will absolutely not go to the $215 level after 100 games. Throughout the 900 or so SnG's I have played I have noticed significant improvements in my game. I expect this to continue. Just looking back 300 tournies ago, I see that I am significantly better. Therefore I plan to play at least 200 tourneys at the $109 level. If I feel I am ready at that time I will step up. If not, then obviously I'll wait until I feel I am.

I do not expect the skill level to jump too much from the 109 to the 215 level. As I am expecting the same kind of people to be playing the tourneys.

You suggest it may be better to play 500-1000 tourneys to get accruate results. This is true if you are looking for results. However, that many is not neccessary if you are looking to see if you are ready to move up. I think 100 are plenty to give you an idea if you are beating the game at the $11, and $22 levels. Once you hit the $33 level, I suggest 300 games.

When asking yourself to move up it is just as important to look at the skill of your opponents as it is to look at your results. It is probably more important to look at the opponents, since the 100-300 tourneys is a small sample in the long run. Everytime I moved up I compared my play to those of my opponents at my level and the next level I moved to. I found that I was one of the better players each time, therefore it was time to move up. You are wasting time by being so conservative playing 500-1000 tourneys at each level. Look at my ROI at the $22 tables. It is 32%. I didn't get scared and not move up because of this because I realised that I was one of the best there and was ready to move up. I just had a low 100. I then went on to do very well at the $33 tables.

Thanks for your post. What and how much are you playing right now?

HC

allenciox
07-14-2004, 01:45 PM
Ok, here are my results at $100+9 and $200+15 NLHE SNG since February 1, when I made the leap from the $50+5s. Previously, I had over 400 SNGs there with an ROI of about 35% I had never played hold-em before last summer, when I caught an episode of World Poker Tour and got hooked. Since then, I have made over $22k playing at Party... not bad for having fun in my spare time.

100+9 NLHE – 268 tourneys
1st: 50
2nd: 25
3rd: 39
4th: 17
ROI: 38% (standard error=10.45%)
In the $: 42.5%

200+15 NLHE – 167 tourneys
1st: 28
2nd: 18
3rd: 14
4th: 13
ROI: 23.7% (stderr=13%)
In the $: 36%

By the way, I DID have to adjust my strategy to play in different buyin tourneys... if I went back to $50+5 now, it would take me time to re-adjust my play to a more appropriate play for that level.

I don't want to give away all my secrets, but I'll give a hint... being a contrarian is not JUST useful in the stock market.

P.S. standard error (stderr) gives an idea of the variability of the results. Multiply by two to get a 95% confidence interval. For example, I am 95% confident that my real ROI playing the way I have over infinite time would be 38% +- 21%, or between 17% and 59%. Also note that the differences in my results for the $100 and $200 SNGs are not statistically significant.

ddubois
07-14-2004, 04:34 PM
it is just as important to look at the skill of your opponents as it is to look at your results... I found that I was one of the better players each time

Not to say that this is what you are doing, but as a generalized cautionary statement against the approach you are advocating: Humans are typically awful when it comes to being objective and impartial when it comes to self-analysis. You can poll pretty much any group of people about any area of achievment, and unilaterally see a majority catagorize themselves as above average. Why do so many people blame "bad luck"? Because it's strongly rooted human nature to externalize problems, to blame other things or other people, rather than our own actions. The point that I'm getting at is this: telling yourself "I'm better than all these people" is inherently subjective and risky, and definately not superior to looking at the hard, cold numbers. Ideally you should use all of: 1) objective data/results 2) your own analysis, focusing on being detached and objective as possible, and 3) the analyisis of other, unbiased people bias (i.e. not your mom).

HC5831
07-14-2004, 06:12 PM
This is a given in my book. But, I understand that to many people this is not the case. I wrote in my post that it is easy to blame poor play for bad luck. I in fact did this for my 1st 20 games at the $109 tables. I've done it in the past as well. It is a fine line and hard to see.

That being said, I am very honest with myself with everything I do in life, including poker. I know my faults, weaknesses and when I play poor cards. And let me tell you, it pisses me off when I play bad. I catch my self doing it from time to time and examine why and what I did wrong.

My point was to be honest with your own game, as I am with mine. I occassionally make bad plays and sometimes I make borderline plays. I review just about every tourney I play to improve my game. I can honestly say that I can tell the difference between bad play and bad luck, most of the time. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Yes, thinking you are better than everyone else is very risky. Knowing that you are better than everyone else is confidence. Maybe my 4 years as a Marine has helped me in the category. Or maybe I am just an arrogant SOB. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif I believe I am the former. It is easy to see the weak plays other players make at your table. If they make these weak plays, that you do not, then you are a better player. Of course who is to say your plays are better??? Experience.. Analyisis.... Still subjective yes, but I have no problem making a decision about a play's worth. In addition, I keep an open mind to new evidence to support or refute a plays effectivness.

Your 3 points are correct. The order and importance can be debated, but it really doesn't matter. I think your own analysis is most important if you only have a small sample size. I further think that having others analysis has very little importance, unless they can point out something you cannot.

HC

AleoMagus
07-15-2004, 04:12 PM
HC,

These days I am playing 30+3 on Party and the Skins. I have been dabbling in the 50+5 and actually have over 100 of them since the start of the year, but my results at that level are less than great

at 30+3 I am currently ITM ~42% with ROI ~39%
at 50+5 (slightly more than 100) I am ITM 34.6% with ROI 7.1%

Clearly I need to adjust to 50+5 better than I have done, but considering the ROI for 50+5 had been negative for a significant portion of that sample, it is possible that I am starting to get it right.

Regards
Brad S