Stealing Blinds - A coin flip situation

[Benal]

Party Poker MTT Qualifier - 30 left, top 7 qualify. Blinds 150/300. Average stack is t5000

I have t2700 and get KJo on the button. MP1 (t4500) limps, MP2 (t4800) limps, I push.

I have a very tight table image, having played maybe 1 hand over the last 4 orbits. My thinking was that pushing would increase my stack by approx 30% if everyone folded, and would cut any other stack in half if called and they lost.

SB (t5400) folds, BB (t5000) folds, MP1 (t4500) folds, and MP2 (t4800) calls after a long pause.

MP2 flips over 66.

Whether I won or lost is irrelevant.

Did MP2 make a mistake calling with 66 knowing he’s probably in a coin-flip or a huge dog?

Did I make a mistake by pushing with two limpers behind me? Should limpers impact your decision when trying to steal blinds? If there is always a limp or raise behind you, should you (generally) never attempt to steal blinds? (I realize this is read dependant)

[schwza]

yeah, calling with 66 is horrible. i kind of like your play. most people who limp don't do it with a hand they'd call a big raise with, except possibly for KK/AA under the gun. the big risk here is the blinds, IMO. KJ is a pretty good hand to make this play with, I think. AK probably would have raised, and AJ and QJ should be folding, so you're probably not in terrible shape. Generally I make this play from the big blind if I'm going to make it (which i do very rarely).

[fnurt]

This play isn't as powerful when you are the shorter stack. You can't bust these guys out, and the call might very well be +EV depending on the range of hands you will raise with, considering there's a lot in the pot already.

I'm not saying you were wrong to do it, but focusing on whether the other guy made a mistake isn't the right question, IMO. He certainly didn't make a FTOP error. And the fact is, you need to realize that your play will pick up the pot a decent amount of the time, but you will also get called by a lot of bigger stacks when they have pocket pairs, and this needs to factor into your decision.

[Roman]

The play seems fine.

You will often find yourself in a coinflip type situation, but considering the chips already in the pot, this play is +EV.

[Chief911]

I think this is incredibly read dependant.

As a general rule, late in a MTT, one limper is a bit worrisome. Two limpers is trouble. And 3 limpers I wouldn't even CALL with anything short of AA, AK, KK, and maybe QQ.

Now, that also depends alot on reads though. If you see people with bigstacks limping on occasion to see a flop, then push. But if these are people who would normally steal blinds, there should be some bigtime bells going off in your head.

Now, looks like all of these limpers just wanted to see a flop, as they all folded except for the chap who made a POOR call with 66. I'd say on average 66 vs. the normal allin raise is around 40% or less winner.

Anyhow, you made a good move if your read was that it was a bunch of people who wanted to see a flop. If you had no read, I would never push in this situation because one of those limpers is bound to have a monster.

Nick

[Piers]

Personaly I would judge KJo not good enough to push, with the limpers in; however I don't think its wrong by that much. Make your stack a little smaller and I would probably push.

As to the call with 66. If he is reading you correctly, ie that your raising with something like 20% of hands then its an easy call. If he judges you as tighter than you were actually playing than it could be wrong.

[TheCat]

For chapter and verse on calling with 66 see http://teamfu.freeshell.org/poker/0604_no_limit_poker.html

[Piers]

Fairly decent artical. You need a tool liker poker calculator (http://koti.mbnet.fi/jraevaar/pokercalculator/) or poker stove (http://www.pokerstove.com/) to do the caculations properly.

Don't forget to discount the chips won by about 4% to 10% to take account of the fact that it is a tornanemnt.

[DonT77]

My 'feeling' is that pushing in your situation (and calling in his situation) were both wrong.

With 2700 chips you are chip-challenged, but you are not yet desperate. Trying for an all-in steal here with 4-players still to act behind you doesn't seem like a good risk/reward - you are basically betting your tournament life that neither of the blinds or the two limpers has a hand that are worth calling you (and remember your all-in only puts them half-in). While this play might have a +chipEV because of folding equity, I think you probably have a -$EV making this play. While your tight table image probably helps your folding equity, some of the PP MTT players might not even notice that you've only played 1 hand in the last 40. It also makes a difference if you've agressively bet or slowplayed AA or KK earlier at this table, as if you slowplayed them you might not get as much respect with your all-in play here.

Just some thoughts...

[WC64]

I tried to steal the blinds in a multi table tournament when I was in the SB. The antes were 100 and the blinds were 400 800 I believe. I was 70th out of 125 left of a field that started with 1600. Well since it was folded around to me I decided to go all in with AK figuring that I probably wouldnt get a call and I would pick up a decent pit just from the antes and blinds. Even if I did get a call I figured I would be even if not a favorite. It just so happens that the BB had pocket aces.

[Piers]

[ QUOTE ]
I tried to steal the blinds in a multi table tournament when I was in the SB. The antes were 100 and the blinds were 400 800 I believe. I was 70th out of 125 left of a field that started with 1600. Well since it was folded around to me I decided to go all in with AK figuring that I probably wouldnt get a call and I would pick up a decent pit just from the antes and blinds. Even if I did get a call I figured I would be even if not a favorite. It just so happens that the BB had pocket aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

Last Prima tournament I entered. $20 rebuy. Had a deacent stack raised preflop with AKo someone had Aces /images/graemlins/frown.gif . A few hands later with a much diminshed stack went all in with AJ in late position. Aces again /images/graemlins/frown.gif That was me out

[DonT77]

In this case you were unlucky to run into AA, but what if the BB had any PP and put you on a steal, he might call your all-in anyway depending on stack sizes. Of course if your raise from SB represents like half of your stack it is an automatic push for you anyway.

[WC64]

The BB had about 2000 more chips then me so he basically had to go all in as well. I figured the only way he would call would be if he had a PP. Yeah I probably overplayed it but I still thought it was the right move at the time.

[fnurt]

What else are you gonna do though? Fold AK in the SB? Limp and fold to a raise?

[Benal]

It seems clear that most of you would not call with 66 in this situation. I sure wouldn't, unless shortstacked.

I just can't justify essentially risking my entire tourney by CALLING an all-in with 66 when I'm an average stack. As a matter of fact, I probably even fold TT and JJ in this same situation... maybe I'm too tight /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[DonT77]

Just wondering, does anybody just call or mini-raise here and then go all-in with an A or K on the flop?

[WC64]

[ QUOTE ]
What else are you gonna do though? Fold AK in the SB? Limp and fold to a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess not lol