Muckleshoot $10/20: An Expensive Free Card

[bobbyi]

I (mis)played this hand about a week ago in the 10/20 at Muckleshoot Casino in Auburn, WA (which is my usual game).

Opponent Profiles: This is about the third hand for UTG since he joined the game by posting in mid-position. I haven’t gotten much sense of how he is playing in this game yet, but I played with him earlier in the evening in a shorthanded (four- and five-handed) 20/40 and there he seemed to be an aggressive and somewhat decent player. The big blind also seems to be somewhat decent (although I’m not 100% sure), but seems like he may be a bit timid and can sometimes be pushed off a hand (the latter part doesn't seem too applicable here).

Preflop: UTG raises. I am UTG+1. One or two players to my left have folded out of turn. I can’t tell whether UTG was able to see this before he decided to raise. Regardless, I make it three bets holding A/images/graemlins/heart.gifK/images/graemlins/heart.gif. The big blind and UTG call.

Flop: Q/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif. BB bets, UTG calls and I raise, with the intent of taking a free card on the turn. BB thinks a second and three-bets. His demeanor makes me think that this is a grit-your-teeth-and-hope-for-the-best-and-three-bet-because-you-have-to raise rather than a raise with a monster. UTG calls and I cap, hoping to buy a free card on the turn. Both call.

Turn: 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif. BB bets and UTG raises. This has turned into the most expensive free card I’ve ever bought. I think a while and call. BB calls.

River: 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif. BB checks, UTG bets, I cry, I call.

I’m wondering how differently you would have played this hand and whether you think any of my decisions were particularly wrong, since every decision from the time the flop was dealt could have been made differently. FWIW, my equity in casino promotions (straight flush ticket/ royal flush ticket for the weekly drawings) for hitting the J/images/graemlins/heart.gif would probably be around $100, disregarding the possibility of a jackpot/ super jackpot. Thanks a lot for any comments (even harsh ones; I've already beat myself up a bit about this hand).

[Ed Miller]

Generally you played fine. Your flop action is unquestionably correct if the board isn't paired (that is, even if you knew for a FACT you wouldn't get a free card, it would be correct to raise and cap the flop... your flush, straight, and overcard draw will make you a winner far more often than 1/3 of the time).

With it paired, you do not have as much equity, but I still think the aggression is ok, especially if you think the BB 3-bet is a "please fold ace-king, Mr. UTG" 3-bet (and therefore significantly less likely to be AT or a boat).

To be clear, I think your first flop raise is mostly for VALUE. Once it comes 3-bet back to you, the cap is probably NOT for value (since your opponents clearly have stronger than average hands), but it's still probably ok because of the chance of getting a free card on the turn.

On the turn, you're stuck. UTG could have QQ or TT for this action, but he could also have AA or AT, or even possibly KK or AQ. The pot's so big at this point that you have to hold your nose and call.

Similarly, on the river you have a crying call. AT just filled up, but AA, KK, and AQ didn't, and the pot is big.

There is an example VERY similar to this hand in my book. You flop the nut flush draw (but without a pair on board and against a larger field) and jam the pot. Then the turn pairs the top card, and you get faced with calling two cold. Finally, on the river, you make your flush, but it double pairs the board.

Bottom line... UTG flopped a monster. Usually he won't. Don't beat yourself up because you happened to get unlucky this hand.

[DonT77]

I've never played higher than 6/12, so take this FWIW -
It looks like you've got the BB beat. So now let's put UTG on a hand.

The only hand that can beat you is QQ or hands with a 10 or a 7 for a full house and the only likely hands that UTG should consider playing for 3 bets are QQ and TT (less likely are 77, JTs, A10s, and 87s). I call on the river and expect to see UTG reveal QQ.

[highlife]

The three bet preflop seems standard.

The cap postflop is a little iffy, in this situation it doesnt look like you are going to slow anyone down here, but if you want to jam the pot if your flush hits thats fine.

Obviously you have to call on the turn, even with the two bets your pot odds are still great. If I counted correctly its about 7.5/1 vs a little worse than 4/1.

The river is obviously the only one of your 12 "outs" that you dont want to see. Still gotta make the crying call on that oh so slim chance your hand was good against a lower flush or AA - KK.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG could have QQ or TT for this action, but he could also have AA or AT, or even possibly KK or AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]
I probably should have mentioned this originally: If I knew he had TT, I would be correct to call on the turn purely for jackpot equity (which is something I've only done once in my life).

[Ed Miller]

The cap postflop is a little iffy, in this situation it doesnt look like you are going to slow anyone down here, but if you want to jam the pot if your flush hits thats fine.

Well, it's obvious now that we aren't slowing anyone down, but think about it this way... that free card COULD save us not one, but two bets on the turn.

Say BB has a hand like KQ. He checks the turn because he's worried that your preflop 3-bet and flop cap means AA. In the case that UTG did indeed flop the mother with QQ, TT, or AT, he may well check too, assuming that you will bet and planning to check-raise both of you. So that extra small bet on the flop saved you two bets on the turn, not one.

It didn't work... but I think it was the right idea. Now if the cap were a bet and FOUR raises instead of a bet and THREE raises (as it is), then 4-betting is riskier because you might get 5-bet.

[Ed Miller]

I probably should have mentioned this originally: If I knew he had TT, I would be correct to call on the turn purely for jackpot equity (which is something I've only done once in my life).

Also, depending on where the jackpot is, it could be a huge overlay. It's usually around $30k at Mucks (at least it was in my day.. hehe), so you get $7.5k if you win... or around $160 per call of jackpot equity alone if you KNOW he has TT.

Now say you know he must have either QQ or TT. Then you have only $40 of jackpot equity, but fortunately that's exactly how much it costs you to call. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[bobbyi]

Yes, you're exactly right. Also, if I make a royal and beat 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gifT /images/graemlins/heart.gif, I'll win about $130k total since we'll trigger the absurd "super jackpot" for straight flush over straight flush with both cards in both hands playing (although that is looking remote on the turn).

Does the "in my day" comment mean you used to live out here? Because if so, you made the exact opposite move from me. I moved from school in Cambridge to Seattle (different school, though. I won't name names, but it's a liberal arts school down the street from you whose name starts with the letter "H" /images/graemlins/smile.gif ).

[bobbyi]

BB did not call the river bet. I would be pretty surprised if he held anything other AQ, which is where I had put him based on by read when he three-bet the flop. Apparently, my assessment of him as "timid" was incorrect, since he bet that hand again on the turn after I capped the flop, which I didn't think he would.

UTG won with K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

[Ed Miller]

Does the "in my day" comment mean you used to live out here? Because if so, you made the exact opposite move from me. I moved from school in Cambridge to Seattle (different school, though. I won't name names, but it's a liberal arts school down the street from you whose name starts with the letter "H" ).

Nah, we made the same move. Left Cambridge in June 2001 for Redmond to work for Microsoft. Left Redmond in October 2003 for Vegas. I was a regular at the Muckleshoot $10-$20 from January to October 2003. But now, "Never come back Muckashoo!"

Hrmm... can't think of any liberal arts schools that start with "H" in Cambridge. Must be one of those small, quaint little places where everyone gets an A. Sit around all day learning etiquette and admiring the beautiful architecture and stuff... sounds relaxing to me. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Ed Miller]

Apparently, my assessment of him as "timid" was incorrect, since he bet that hand again on the turn after I capped the flop, which I didn't think he would.

This is an important point. I did it instinctively in my head, but I just realized that some people might not know to do this:

When you have a read like this... "my opponent seems to be timid," that is based on only a small or medium length of time playing together, that read becomes basically worthless in big pots like this. You simply MUST BE SURE to fold strong draws in big pots. So if your reaction to this thread were, "Normally I'd call, but a timid opponent betting into two people after a capped flop has to mean super strength," you are on the wrong track. Your read is too likely to be off to act on it.

[bobbyi]

My life had previously seemed significant and meaningful. But now I learn that I am simply another man's shadow, doomed to live a life already lived. I moved out here to work for the same company as you (I'm there now) and have become I'm a regular in the same poker game. I started playing there in October, so I guess I was there to replace you, unbeknownst to me. So I'm moving to Vegas next? Weird. Maybe you should be watching over your shoulder.

[Ruddiger]

[ QUOTE ]
My life had previously seemed significant and meaningful. But now I learn that I am simply another man's shadow, doomed to live a life already lived. I moved out here to work for the same company as you (I'm there now) and have become I'm a regular in the same poker game. I started playing there in October, so I guess I was there to replace you, unbeknownst to me. So I'm moving to Vegas next? Weird. Maybe you should be watching over your shoulder.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are worse people to follow I would imagine. It is also good to know that my first thoughts about this hand weren't that far off from what people with much more experience than me thought.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I moved out here to work for the same company as you (I'm there now) and have become I'm a regular in the same poker game. I started playing there in October,

[/ QUOTE ]

Im sure I've played with you then. Have we played?

b

[DonT77]

"the only likely hands that UTG should consider playing for 3 bets are QQ and TT (less likely are 77, JTs, A10s, and 87s)"

or even less likely KTs - doh!

[bobbyi]

n/t