Raise the Turn or Raise the River?

[Sarge85]

I gotta admit I feel a little silly asking this:

Paradise Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, BB checks,

Flop: (7.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero ?????
/images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

<font color="black"> Any reason not to raise it here? For some reason I think it would be better to wait until the river.
</font>
Sarge /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[J.R.]

Any reason not to raise it here? For some reason I think it would be better to wait until the river.

A single club won't pay you off on the river, and a set will (and two pair likely will) call on the turn and call one bet the river if another club does not fall. I can't think of a reason not to raise.

[adanthar]

If you 3 bet now, you will probably lose UTG+2 for sure, win 2 if you're ahead of MP and lose 3 if you're behind now and he caps or if the fourth club comes on the river.

If you call, you will probably win 3 bets (one from UTG+2 now, and either one or two more when MP bets/checks to you on a blank river, but most likely two) and lose one when the fourth club hits or three when you're behind and get reraised.

Looks like waiting is +EV.

Edit: This will only make sense if UTG+2 can fold for 2 bets. If he's that bad, raise.

[Sarge85]

Hmmm - somewhat unconclusive so far.

I'm leaning towards re-raising the turn though.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[sthief09]

raise it. if you can get the J or Q of clubs to fold, then you've improved your chances to win immensely.

[StellarWind]

Am I the only one who thinks we are probably drawing dead on the turn? What exactly did the 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif make the *two* non-blind opponents who are betting and raising in front of me?

No, I am not here to advocate folding a flush. We have to see this through.

Raising is -EV because we are usually losing or at least facing strong flush and/or boat draws.

UTG+2 is either 1) completely bluffing, 2) semibluffing a top club, 3) betting a set, or 4) betting a flush. In none of these cases does raising improve our winning chances because either he can't win or he won't fold anyway.

No one bets the J /images/graemlins/club.gif in this situation.

I call with tears in my eyes.

[J.R.]

UTG+2 is either 1) completely bluffing, 2) semibluffing a top club, 3) betting a set, or 4) betting a flush

I think UTG+2 could have 2 pair or a straight as well (and possibly a smaller flush).

In none of these cases does raising improve our winning chances because either he can't win or he won't fold anyway.

Why does the raise have to improve our chance of winning, why can't it be for value? But the bare J /images/graemlins/club.gif or perhaps the Q /images/graemlins/club.gif may fold, and if UTG has two pair he may fold his 4 outer as well.

I call with tears in my eyes.

Why passively call, all you did was bet the flop and they don't know or expect you have a flush here? It seems weak tight to assume we are behind a to a bigger flush is this spot. I guess my point is I would rather get the bets in when the chance my hand is best is greatest. If they both call and the river is a club and you are bet into you have an fairly easy fold.

Raising is -EV because we are usually losing or at least facing strong flush and/or boat draws.

I don't mind 3-betting the turn against a big club and a set/two pair, and I don't know why a ten high flush is usually losing in this spot. Doesn't UTG+2's turn raise with two opponent's, including the flop bettor, still to act look like a vulnerable hand.

[J.R.]

If you 3 bet now, you will probably lose UTG+2 for sure,

For sure? Couldn't he have a big club or a made hand with full house outs and/or some desire to see if you are just semi-bluffing a big club + pair?

lose 3 if you're behind now and he caps or if the fourth club comes on the river.

I think I could find a river fold if I am led into on a river club after 3-betting this turn.

one from UTG+2 now, and either one or two more when MP bets/checks to you on a blank river, but most likely two)

I don't know if I'd expect to pick up 2 bets on this river very often if it blanks. If UTG+2 was semibluffing he may not call the river either.


I think you also need to weigh your figures because the river will only be a club that makes a higher flush about 1/6th of the time (your 5 clubs plus one bigger club in an opponent's hand means they have 7 clubs to draw to out of 45 cards, and pehaps only 6 out of 44 if both players have clubs). Yes you could also loose to a board pairing card but in general, when you are ahead on this turn you will also be ahead on the river well more than 50% of the time.

I generally think you are ahead in this spot. Why can't we put UTG+2 on a smaller flush (if he must be put on a flush), as that is more consistent with his turn raise, which looks like a vulnerable hand that wants to charge the 2 hands behind him to continue. Get the money in when your hand is likely best, because big clubs won't pay off on the river and your opponents could have lots of worse hands that they will call 3-bets with on the turn. All you did was bet the flop. You don't need a flush draw to do that, and one might expect your opponents' to bet/check-raise a big club flush on this flop a fair amount of the time as well.

[ScottTheFish]

[ QUOTE ]

UTG+2 is either 1) completely bluffing, 2) semibluffing a top club, 3) betting a set, or 4) betting a flush. In none of these cases does raising improve our winning chances because either he can't win or he won't fold anyway.


[/ QUOTE ]

What about raising to get more money in the pot when we likely have the best hand against possible draws that usually wont hit on the river and wont pay us off on the river when they miss?

The idea that I'm "usually losing" with a T high flush here is crazy, IMO.

SW I respect your opinion highly and have no doubt you are smarter about poker than I am, but I think you give our LL opponents far far too much credit sometimes. If MP 1 is like my typical opponent, he'll raise the turn there if he just hit his raggy 2 pair, a set of 5's, a lower flush, the A /images/graemlins/club.gif as some kind of misguided bluff, etc.

yeah he'll raise the nut flush there, too. But I see flush over flush so seldom with 3 on the board I don't even worry about it. If ha caps me I'll shut it down and call on the river.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Why can't we put UTG+2 on a smaller flush (if he must be put on a flush)

[/ QUOTE ]
23 out of 28 possible made flushes are ahead of us. That's over 80%.

[ QUOTE ]
which looks like a vulnerable hand that wants to charge the 2 hands behind him to continue

[/ QUOTE ]
Been a while since you played 2/4 /images/graemlins/smile.gif? The nuts will bet and raise whether it makes sense or not. Besides, better flushes than ours should feel mighty vulnerable.

My argument is that raising can't help us win and therefore it is strictly an EV question. I think between the times we are losing and the times we get outdrawn that the EV is not there for a raise. Especially when you consider that the nuts may cap it.

If I really believed UTG+2 could have two pair I might change my vote because that provides better odds and an actual chance to force out a dangerous hand. But what two pair are we discussing? 54 seems unlikely at UTG+2. Not impossible, but it's a slender possibility that he would both have it and play it. Besides the 4-out two-pair draw is often drawing dead to MP1; knocking him out instead of collecting an overcall is not as useful as it looks.