Too passive with TPTK on a dry board

[togilvie]

I'm on the button with AKo in a fairly standard 10-20 game(live). One EP limper, and I raise. He's a competent player. Blinds fold, EP calls.

Flop Comes A, 7, 2 rainbow.

He bets, I call. Turn is a 9, completing the rainbow

He bets, I call. River brings a J

He bets, I call.

On the flop and turn I considered raising. I figure that I am either way ahead or way behind, given how dry the flop is. In the interest of maximizing my payoff from a smaller Ace, an under pair, or a complete bluff, I decided that calling would keep him betting whereas a raise might slow down a number of worse hands.

I have been kicking myself for not raising the river. At the time, I assumed that he wouldn't pay off with worse hands, but I'm now doubting that and think that I need to value raise on the end.

Thoughts on how it was played?

[papawawa]

I can see your logic for calling the flop, but honestly you raised preflop and he didn't. You say he's a decent player so I wouldn't put him limping early with Ax, maybe semibluffing with K7s or 87s. However I think after your weak call on the flop he might've put you on KQ or the like, which was good for you. Unfortunately, you didn't take advantage of this deception by raising. If it were me, I'd raise the turn and bet/raise the river. Of course hindsight is 20-20.

[onegymrat]

Hi togilvie,

With a board like that headsup, a raise somewhere along the hand may have been better. I prefer the turn.

[togilvie]

Those who've responded so far, it might be helpful to identify why you think I should raise. Again, here's my rationale for playing passively, based on how my opponent could respond to my raise:

A) Significantly worse hands (Weak Aces, underpairs and bluffs) are likely to fold to my turn raise. So I lose a bet when they have these hands.

B) I earn an additional bet from a medium A that calls me down with the worst hand after a turn raise.

C) I earn an extra two bets when a medium A three-bets me on the turn. I'm discounting this a bit because I think that an aggressive player with this tendency would probably raise when entering the pot pre-flop.

D) I'm definitely not getting a better hand (two pair or a set) to fold to my raise. Most will re-raise me, and I will be obligated to call down. So I'll lose an extra two bets. Given the texture of the board, I'm not too worried about this scenario.

I'm assuming that C&D net out against each other. Since I think it's significantly more likely that my opponent has a hand in the A category rather than B, I think my EV is higher by playing it in the passive fashion that I did.

[1800GAMBLER]

You should bluff raise more on the turn.