river decision...

[tpir90036]

$1/$2 8-handed live NL game. my opponent in this calls a few too many raises, will overplay some overpair-ish situations, and probably bluffs a little too much...but he is not a psycho and can lay down when he needs to. this is probably only the 4th hand i have played all night so i would think my image is kind of nitty.

folded to me (~$250) in MP and i raise to $8 with 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif. only my button opponent (~$300) calls.

flop ($19): A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
i bet $20 and my opponent calls without much thought.

turn ($59): 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif (A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif)
i bet $50 and my opponent calls again.

river ($159): 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif)

i have ~$172 left and my opponent has me covered. what is the plan? i can't really fathom check-calling or check-folding and i feel like betting is not +EV in this spot....that might sound weird but i will explain later.

thanks in advance,
-tpir

[AnyutaDva]

I make a decent bet here, about $120. You have raised pre flop and he has called you. As you say you have a reasonably tight reputation, so he is probably puting you on a couple of big cards ( if he is putting you on anything at all. ) When you bet the flop and then the turn he is probably thinking you have AK, AQ, and as there are very few draws on the flop he is calling with a made hand, and probably one that is ahead of TPTK. I would only worry about being behind if he is the type of person that with bullets or trips loses the use of his arms, and can't bring himself to raise until the river. Given your tight table image I think it is an excellent preflop raise as it makes your hand very difficult to read.

[tpir90036]

[ QUOTE ]
When you bet the flop and then the turn he is probably thinking you have AK, AQ

[/ QUOTE ]
this is part of my problem...he "knows" that i have AK/AQ and is only calling a river bet if he has that beat....granted, i can beat two-pair, a smaller set and a bluff but i think those are very unlikely given the board/action. i just don't see getting called on the river but checking makes me want to throw up.

[Zag]

My plan is to put as much money in the pot as I think he will match. The tactic might be to bet out or to check-raise, but the bottom line is that he gets my chips if he has me beat.

Seriously, what could he have that you are behind? Ultra-slow-played aces, runner-runner flush, gutshot on the turn (with 25) or runner-runner straight (with 57) are the only hands that beat you, and I can't see him holding any of those. The only hand I fear at all is AA, and only against certain opponents.

On the other hand, I could easily believe A9, A4, AJ, AT, or 44, most of which will call you if you make a half-pot bet or so, and might even be induced to bet if you check. It depends on your knowledge of the player. From your hesitancy to bet out, I suspect that you had some sort of read of a strong hand -- but that could easily be A9 or A4, which he initially felt really good about, planning to raise the turn, but then he got gunshy when you made another serious bet on the turn (considering your image).

I think the critical hands for you to know his behavior are the middling aces. If he held AJ, here, and you checked to him, would he bet, or would he just be grateful to get a free showdown? (I discount AK or AQ because I think you would have seen a raise by those hands by now.) If he would bet these hands, then go ahead and pour some blood in the water by checking. (However, if so, I think you should have check-raised the turn.) Otherwise, bet out an amount that you think he would call with these hands. If you feel he would fold AJ to a one-third-pot raise, then raise about 2/3 pot so that you make a little more from A9 (and give up on making any more from AJ).

[AnyutaDva]

tpir,

I'd be interested to know what hand you think you are up against. A full list of hands that beat you is;

A back door flush draw. Given that the Ace on the flop is not a heart he could have called with Ax hearts or 45 hearts trying to pick of his side card or the draw.

2-5 or 5-7 for the straight. Given that the guy you are up against while slightly loose isn't a psycho I'd pretty much rule both these out.

Trip Aces. If he has this hand then he has flat called preflop with bullets, then flat called heads up with trips on the flop and the turn. Well to be fair on this type of flop with no draws trip Aces may well call behind on the flop ( as would trip 4's ), they may even do so again on the turn.

So there are plausible hands that a non-psycho could show you on the end. However there are hands, which I feel are more likely that he will call you with thinking that he is trapping you, A9, A4, 44, even with AK he is going to feel like he is tying at the worst and many players aren't going to fold AQ.

So I'd be trying to get the money in. You don't want him to check behind you, you don't want him to make only a small bet when he will call a large bet.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
i can't really fathom check-calling or check-folding and i feel like betting is not +EV in this spot....that might sound weird but i will explain later.


[/ QUOTE ]

is it later yet?

i'd bet about $100 and expect get called by AJ or AQ.

[ML4L]

Hey tpir,

Just gotta guess what hands he will call with and what hands he will bet with if checked to. In this type of situation, I like a check-call if your opponent is a bluffaholic. But, here, he doesn't appear to be. I'm with Zag. Bet whatever he will call with AJ (half-pot?) and call a raise. If he got there, he got there...

Hope it worked out.

ML4L

[tpir90036]

i feel that betting is not +EV as comapred to the alternative because my opponent is going to pay off with fewer hands than he would bet himself. i.e. he is folding most one pair hands here but might bet them if i check to him. he definitely would have played back at me with a strong ace so my read was that of a weak ace or him just waiting to bluff at me. anyway, something felt dirty about check-calling on a board like this... maybe this is a part of NL logic that i am missing.

anyway. i checked and he bet $100 which i called and he semi-slowrolled A /images/graemlins/heart.gif2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif just to make things worse for me. oh well.... chips!! in hindsight it is a pretty easy read to make but i am still not sure what i could have done differently save for pushing on the turn.

-tpir

[Ulysses]

I would bet $75-100 and call if he puts me in.