I have to call....don't I??

[davidross]

I'm pissed. Out of Super Monday early, but doing real well in the $30 NL at PArty and the Stars Rebuy. In the $30 NL, I've had Aces cracked twice already, but have won some nonster pots and with 170 left have double the average stack at 9K.

Bloinds are 150/300 and I get AA UTG again. My last 4 raises have won the blinds so I make the minimum raise this time, to 600. Still everyone folds to the BB who calls. Flop is Qs 8s 2s. He checks, I bet 2K to make it unatractive for the spade draw (I don;t have As) and he goes all in for 11K.

My guess is a pair and the flush draw, and I call. Wrong, he flopped the flush and I'm out.

Sigh. cracked 3 times in the same tourney /images/graemlins/frown.gif

ANyone fold on the flop?

[Mastermmmm]

It is certainly what I would have done. Getting cracked 3 times on your AA in a single tourney is unsual, but it does happen. Unless one of the big boys tell you differnet, I would keep up the same play each time. But remember, that it is seldom a good idea to put all your chips at risk on a bet that is not the pure nuts. (IMHO)

[AtlBrvs4Life]

You are a much better player than me, but I would have to fold here. If he has a pair and the flush draw, you are a little better than a coin flip, and if he has the flush you are almost drawing dead.

[davidross]

I'm wondering if th ebest play might have been to check the flop, prepared to bail if the 4th spade comes. And to bet harder on the turn when his hand has fewer outs(presuming I'm ahead). It may have turned out differently, or I might have saved some chips.

[SossMan]

Just so I have the stacks right.

T1350 in the pot preflop (T600+T600+SB).

You bet T2k and he puts you all in. You have another T9k less T2600 = T6400.
T6400 to win about T18,150?
Getting almost 3:1, I think you have a call. The overbet sure smells like a nut flush draw. Problem is that if he has a made hand, you have only runner runner outs. Obviously, if he has a set, you have 2 outs.
I think I make the call here, but a fold wouldn't be horrible. Overall, I think it's probably +EV, high variance.

[AtlBrvs4Life]

[ QUOTE ]
Just so I have the stacks right.

T1350 in the pot preflop (T600+T600+SB).

You bet T2k and he puts you all in. You have another T9k less T2600 = T6400.
T6400 to win about T18,150?
Getting almost 3:1, I think you have a call. The overbet sure smells like a nut flush draw. Problem is that if he has a made hand, you have only runner runner outs. Obviously, if he has a set, you have 2 outs.
I think I make the call here, but a fold wouldn't be horrible. Overall, I think it's probably +EV, high variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm slow but I don't see how the pot is giving him 3:1 odds here. By my calculations its 6400 to call and the pot is 11750. That is 1.8:1.

[Claudio86]

Actually, your both wrong on the pot size, as it comes to 14350 after the pusher bets 11000, becuase, theres 1350 preflop, + his 2,000 bet + 11000 raise, to a total of 14350, still you are only getting slightly better than 2:1 on your money which makes it a little risky to make this call as he could easily be doing this with a set, possibly containing a flush card, which would have you drawing very light, and theres no reason to risk the rest of your stack in this situation when you could easily be beat, or at best be only slightly ahead. Fold and keep your stack above average

[Gramps]

That's a tough one, because you're going to have the best hand a lot of the time. But the cost of going out here it high, as if you fold you still have about 50% more than the average stack (and probably > 50% the median stack), so you're still in really good shape. You're risking a lot by making the call.

If you've seen this guy play fast and loose - one with no "in between gear," then maybe the risk reward is worth because if you do win this pot, you have a huge stack and the final table is looking good. But if he does have a pair + a flush draw, you're about a coin flip with two cards to come (he has 14 outs, though he may make two pair and you could still win if board pairs/you get trips). Even up against just a flush draw, you're only a 2:1 favorite, and if he does have a set or flush, you're practically drawing dead.

Looks like about a coin flip on average. And the chips you'd lose here (all your chips, knocking you out of the tourney) probably have more tangible value than the chips you'd win here. It's not like a cash game where you just calculate pot odds. Those chips you're putting at stake have tremendous value still.

Probably one of those things where the frustration of having your Aces cracked twice already made ya go ahead with it. Happens to the best of them.

Serenity now, serenity now!

[Roman]

Hero only has T9000 himself, so the 11000 cannot be counted.

[Roman]

This is a very high variance call, and a fold leaves you in with an above average stack. Especially if the table is as passive as you have described, I fold and wait for a better opportunity. If however, the table was aggresive or you had a small stack, this is an auto-call.

[davidross]

So after getting my aces cracked at Party I was still alive in the Stars $11 rebuy. Just kept surviving, picking up hands just enough to get me to the next pay point. I make the last 31, and I'm in the BB with AK and 60K. I'm 27th in chips. Big stack in EP makes a small raise and I push in. He calls with A8, and of course teh 8 flops. Grrrrr. What a night.

[cartoonsoldier]

Ah bad luck. Not the first of it though right? I saw AQs cracked by A7.

Sucks.

[Claudio86]

oh right, sorry its 3 am and im pretty tired so i forgot to subtract the extra that the pusher would have left over if hero called, which actually makes the call worse seeing as he would be getting less than 2:1 on the call

[sdplayerb]

you started the problem with the minraise preflop.
for his allin you were either slightly ahead or way behind.
i know it is tough to throw away AA, but you have a big stack, and a checkraise screams you are in trouble.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
which makes it a little risky to make this call as he could easily be doing this with a set, possibly containing a flush card,

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not possible.

david, i like your revised line of checking behind on the flop to see what comes. in this case, it likely would have been the same result if no spade hit, but if one did then you could safely get away.

i don't like the min raise utg - i think your options are limp-reraise or make a normal 3-4xBB raise. you said one reason you min-raised it was that your raises hadn't been getting action - if others are observant they might think you're starting to raise light.

[MLG]

I hate checking the flop here and here's why. If you check the flop now what. He could be slow playing the flush, you could have just given a free card to a big flush draw, or he could be waiting to make a play on the turn with top pair if no spade comes. Now if he bets on the turn you are going to raise anyway because there are a lot of hands he could bet here, so sometimes you enduce a bluff I suppose, but I don't think you enduce it all that often. If a 4th spade comes you are getting rid of the hand whether he is beating you or not. So, you will lose the same amount to a made flush, you will now lose to a flush draw, and you open up the option for getting bluffed even if he doesn't have the draw. The only time it works in your favor is when a blank hits and he check folds, (or maybe check calls and then checks the river) but if he check folds the turn he will probably check fold the flop. All in all your losing your chips here.

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't like the min raise utg - i think your options are limp-reraise or make a normal 3-4xBB raise. you said one reason you min-raised it was that your raises hadn't been getting action - if others are observant they might think you're starting to raise light.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, with all the debate about your flop play, I think it was your preflop play that I think you made a mistake on. If your raises are getting too much respect, instead of raising small on big hands, just start raising with worse hands and keep picking up blinds.

By the way, I think you have to fold here, you'll still have a nice stack, and with your track record, I think its ok for you to avoid a close gamble like this.

[MLG]

Your numbers are wrong which I think shifts it to a fold. You are actually getting slightly less than 2:1 on your money (he can't win the 11k the opponent shoves in only 6400...math is hard). With your stack this deep you can afford to get away from a hand that you just cannot be way ahead in. Unless you've seen this guy do some wild things or play really fast and loose you can (and I think probably should) fold. Of course if I folded every time I should I'd be a much better player. With 6400 at the 150-300 level you are still in good shape to go deep in this tourney, toss it and find a better spot.


Oh, and I still hate checking the flop, don't let a small spade win this pot for your opponent.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just so I have the stacks right.

T1350 in the pot preflop (T600+T600+SB).

You bet T2k and he puts you all in. You have another T9k less T2600 = T6400.
T6400 to win about T18,150?
Getting almost 3:1, I think you have a call. The overbet sure smells like a nut flush draw. Problem is that if he has a made hand, you have only runner runner outs. Obviously, if he has a set, you have 2 outs.
I think I make the call here, but a fold wouldn't be horrible. Overall, I think it's probably +EV, high variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm slow but I don't see how the pot is giving him 3:1 odds here. By my calculations its 6400 to call and the pot is 11750. That is 1.8:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right...I should have had a few less Old Miliwaukee Light's last night. 1.8:1 is right, and I think a fold is in order. Thank you.

[davidross]

I agree. If I stay at a table long enough, I think my tightness becomes obvious, and I love it when my AJ raises steal the blinds. THe downside is that AA and KK don't get action either, but lets face it, if someone wakes up with a big pair or AK behind me, I'm getting action whether I bet 2x or 3x. In this case I wonder if he calls the 3x raise with 76s. Maybe.

[Mastermmmm]

It is very tough to go allin against the big stack. At that early point in the hand, and late in the tourney, it you never know what he may have and if he will take it all away. I would have played this differnetly with BigStack as opposed to someone with less than you in front of them.

[Claudio86]

yeah, im not too sure why i said that, probably had something to due with the whole sleep deprivation issue but even discluding the fact that they could have set+flush draw (wow now that i think about it that sounded really stupid of me) the call on the flop is really risky, but then again, by checking you give the flush draw a free card, which is too risky to try. i think you must bet the flop and just hope for the best, if he pushes, just be ready to release your hand. even if he only has the flush draw, which is pretty much the very least he would make this move with, you can still easily lose your entire stack on a marginal call where you can simply lay it down and still have a decent stack

[t_perkin]

I think the min raise is ok, you might even get reraised preflop which is really nice. Especially if there are a few short stacks around looking to get heads up and double up.

Why are you betting T2000 instead of T1350 on the flop?
This is just a wasted T650 (one BB)

When he check raises here you should be able to fold at least sometimes. I would say a paired flush draw is more likely to be pushing in straight away rather than check raising.
You are highly likely to be looking at a made hand. ESPECIALLY considering your table image.

just some thoughts

Tim

Quick rant: I just busted out of a Party 30+3 MTT after losing AKs vs AKs, QQ vs AT, 99 vs A6 and 66. Money in before the flop every time. So maybe I am in a bit of a folding mood at the moment /images/graemlins/smile.gif