A negative EV play with AK

[davidross]

This is highly theoretical, since I'm almost positive all of you play it the same way I did, but I've been thinking.....

Sunday night Party $100 NL tourney. I've made the final table, but I'm in bad shape. With 4 tables left I was 6th overall, but 5th at my table. And I got unfortunate cards, AA and KK won just the blinds, and a set of 8's got me nothing either. Apart from that I've just been blinded down, basically staying even while everyone else climbed over me. I was last as we reached the final table, but 1 guy has already gone out.

Blinds are 750/1500, I have around 5700 left. 9th place gets $550 and each spot I move up pays me another $175, until around 4th where it climbs higher. There is one real loose player that I have been with all night. He has been up and down like a yo-yo, willing to push all in with anything for the last 3 hours. When we reached the final table he was the chip leader, now 10 hands later he's with me at 5500. Everone else has 20K or more.

About 5 off the button I get AKo. I push in and the BB calls with TT. I don't improve, and I'm out in 9th.

I believe if I had just folded every hand I got until I ran out of chips, I would move up at least 1, and maybe 2 or 3 spots. I need to double up twice just to get back into 7th place. So in my opinion, playing my AK was a negative EV play. If making as much money as possible was my only concern, I should have folded it and hoped to move up when someone else busted and make another $175.

COmments??

[Chief911]

David,

I'm surprised to hear you say that. You know very well you double up once, and you're back in it with 10k. I think you have to push like this. $175 isn't worth the lost potential of making the final 3.

Nick

[tripdad]

i would have considered folding in your spot and trying to outlast the other short stack. it depends on whether you or he was first to hit their blinds. if you are first, push. if he is first, consider folding. it's debateable whether anything other than AA or KK should be played if someone is due to be blinded off before you, and you have virtually no chance of improving to 7th.

cheers!

[DonT77]

We really need to know the sizes of the other stacks to assess this situation. If you did double-up, then what place would you have moved up to; and, what percent of the larger stacks would you then be at?

[Tosh]

Pushing is undeniably correct IMO.

[ZeeJustin]

This is very weak tight thinking. If you shove, and a non-blind calls, your stack shoots up to 13,650. This is almost 10x BB, i.e enough to work with. Don't forget about how steep the prizes are. 1 1st place finish is more valuable than a large number of 7th place finishes.

Also, your chances of getting 7th by folding aren't as high as you think. Small stacks are much less likely to go all-in if they see someone has less than 3x BB left.

[Jason Strasser]

Pushing all-in with AK seems like a dream spot. I have no idea why you are second guessing this. You should look to double up and contend for the big money. The chance you could come back and win the whole thing, which is possible, completely outweighs any thoughts of posting and folding to 7th place.

[fnurt]

I can't quantify it, but it seems like you have to be a lot shorter than this to give up all your other EV just to move up one measly spot.

It's even worse if, like here, the other short stack is close enough to you that one lucky double-up means you are now the one on the hot seat. Yes, maybe it seemed like this guy was destined to bust out with his reckless play, but he could just as easily have gotten lucky and won a couple pots. Meanwhile you'd be kicking yourself about folding hands as good as AK.

[SossMan]

It would have to be a weird set of circumstances for me to fold AK here. Something like two short stacks are about to be blinded off before I take a blind. Barring that, I think a push is automatic.

[DOTTT]

EEEEEWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!

Sorry but that’s just how I feel after reading your post David.

First of all you seem to have given up all hope of actually winning this, when all you need is two hands to double up with and you’re in contention to take this home. AK is certainly one of the hands you dream of getting in your spot. Yeah you ran into a hand (coin flip really), but most of the time people are going to be happy to call you with AQ,AJ,AT,KQ,KJ, and a bunch of other hands you dominate.

Second, your reasoning that by folding you’ll be able to finish a place higher has no real merit. The other short stack can easily catch some hands, or suck out on some hands and move up while you remain stuck in last position. Perhaps, if you opponent had only 1500-2000 I can understand a fold although I still wouldn’t do it, because you still have a real shot at winning this.

Third, IMO folding AK even with your opponent at 1500-2000 is a -$ev play. I’m going to guess first place paid something close to $5000. If you fold here and your opponent is going to face the blinds I say you have a 75% chance at moving ahead. So you’d be gaining $175 75% of the time you fold this, but what if you push and double up or just steal the blinds, I cant tell you exactly how much $ev you’d be gaining but I’m pretty sure it’s more then $175.

[davidross]

Hey, I'm not saying I'd ever fold it, I hang on to my hope of going on a run and still winning, but I would almost guarantee that if I could somehow run simulations on this and play the tournament out I would come out ahead not playing another hand. I could last about 22 hands I think, the other short stack is wild and will certainly push in sometime soon. And at this stage most of the players are all-in or nothing, so there is a good chance someone else will bust out in 22 hands. But of course my chance of winning is 0.

[davidross]

That was really the gist of this. If I doubled up twice I would still be in 8th place. I am virtually tied for 8th now and 7th place had over 20K, THe leader was around 55 and everyone else in between them.

[davidross]

Again, the only reason I posted this is that even winning this hand didn't put me into a better position. I needed to win this, and another before my next blinds to get close to 7th place. THe entire point of this is that I don't think I could move into the big money more than one in a hundred times (I'm just making this number up), and I do believe I would move up one place 75% of the time, and 2 places maybe 20% of the time by not playing anything.

THis is highly hypothetical, because I'm going to keep pushing here every time, but I'm not convinced it's a +EV play.

[TheGrifter]

Running the math would be nearly impossible. Tournament payouts are so steep however that I am almost certain you are wrong that going on autofold here would be +EV.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
THe entire point of this is that I don't think I could move into the big money more than one in a hundred times (I'm just making this number up),

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you are making this number up, but that can't even be close to right. Maybe I'm not getting the hyperbole.

[tripdad]

as i understand it, you depend on poker for your livelyhood. IMO, if you always go for the win, your variance will be much higher than if you take the +EV$$ bet every time. so, really, this decision is totally personal based on your goals you set for yourself in regards to poker earnings and your own overall strategy.

it's nice that most responses say for you to go for it, and thus, the win, but most do not have to feed a family with poker earnings.

cheers!

[fnurt]

1 in 100 times?! You totally underrate yourself friend David.

When you play huge MTTs, as you and I do, final tables don't come as often as we'd all like. When you get there, it's a nervous experience, and second-guessing becomes inevitable if you don't win. But don't fall into the trap of being too hard on yourself. You did the right thing with AK, lots of posters are confirming it, and if you had won this coinflip I would not have been at all surprised to see you move up much more than one place. The luck wasn't with you but it may be next time, so make sure you give it the chance to work in your favor.

[davidross]

I don't want to make too big a deal of this because I really just wanted to talk about the merits of doing it, as I said I still pushed, and I'm sure I would again. The one argument that didn't come up in favor of pushing was that if I do double up, I cna afford to fold for that much longer and maybe move up more places.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
THe entire point of this is that I don't think I could move into the big money more than one in a hundred times (I'm just making this number up), and I do believe I would move up one place 75% of the time, and 2 places maybe 20% of the time by not playing anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's just assume all three of your numbers are correct (1%, 75%, 20%). If you double up, how are the 75% and 20% impacted? What about your chances of moving up 3 or 4 spots? I'm with everyone else on this one. I bet pushing is higher EV.

[sdplayerb]

Sorry, but that is like the easiest pushin ever.
Are you really playing to make another hundred bucks?
Only way to even consider folding is if everybody has huge huge stacks, and one person is less than you.

And it doesn't matter that you won't be in 7th place in chips now. You probably are within a double up or a few steals from 4th.

I'm not going to analyze it more, it isn't even close.

[sdplayerb]

You have to take into account that they will realize you have become a short stack and other semi short stacks will adjust accordingly.

[Pat Southern]

If either you or your opponent (or both) had a shorter stack I would agree. But since you both are only a few hands away from building back your stack up, I'd say its definately worth it. A lot of times the blinds will fold and you will seperate yourself from the other short stack enough to perhaps warrant folding to 7th, but you can't confidently say he will go out first when you have 1/7.5 BB more than he does. Also, since the payouts are incredibly top heavy, this play may cost you $175 a lot of the time, but win you an incredible ammount at other times.