Stealing Blinds Repeatedly

[Jason Strasser]

I've been pondering this little nugget for a bit. I've heard many posters on this forum, and in the multi-table forum say that they hate stealing blinds twice in a row.

I had a situation come up in a STT the other day that was very interesting. On the bubble, 5 handed, I got dealt AQ, AT, KK, JJ, A6. In succession. Each time I went all-in to steal the blinds. These hands are on the upper echelon of hands I will steal with, so I did not hesitate. On the A6, the table big stack typed out, "I hate this bullsh** you ****" and called me with TT and I wiped out.

Of course, this play was all standard and everything, and regardless if I had pushed the first time or the tenth time, my opponent would call with TT, but I was just thinking. Does anyone consider the last hand, or the last two hands when determining when to steal? I tend to not care. But I do know some players who will fold marginal hands worthy of steals just to not appear like they are stealing too much.

Is there nothing to what I'm saying? I'm not sure...

[ZeeJustin]

Ignoring your table image would be foolish. At the same time, I think many people put to much emphasis on it, and not enough emphasis on whether or not their hand has enough equity to raise with.

[ludeyork]

IMHO, I think going all-in with A6 was definitely pushing your luck. Yesterday, I was playing in a tourney, sitting just to the left of a maniac (or maybe genius) and he was stealing blinds on all-ins. The first two times he showed 24o or 86o, and on the third time in a row I looked down at A9s and called. Needless to say he flipped over aces.

I agree that play is standard and that he would have called with tt regardless, but the more often you're all-in the more likely it will be for someone to call your marginal hand with their marginal hand.

Did that help?

Chris

[Jason Strasser]

A6 on the button 5 handed is auto-push for me. I am very sure it is positive EV for me.

[ludeyork]

Wait. So you wanted a call with your A6? My point was if your 6th all-in was a better hand I'd feel more comfortable, because you're going to get more people considering a call each time.

But then again, I might be confused.

[Jason Strasser]

No, I definitely do not want a call. I want to steal the blinds, and this hand IMO is good enough to do that. I guess you are saying I should've realized that by now they'd be sick of my act and call me.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
A6 on the button 5 handed is auto-push for me. I am very sure it is positive EV for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, yes but. To answer your question, I definitely take prior hands into account when stealing. On a marginal hand, it really makes a difference whether I raised last hand, because I do think it makes people more likely to call me.

As for A6 on the button, it's not just a question of whether the blinds have a bigger hand than you. A6 surely rates to be the best hand 3-handed. However, the problem is that because you just raised 4 hands in a row, you're likely to get called with a lot of hands you'd rather not play against for all your chips, like KQ, KJ, QJ, whatever. If some guy goes on tilt and calls you with 98s... well, that's not a great situation for you, even if it's technically +EV.

I wouldn't take this idea too far, but I think raising 5 hands in a row is one of those extreme situations. As odd as it feels, I've laid down hands in situations like this, and it's worth considering. When you get past the point where you can expect to pick up the blinds uncalled, you have to consider whether your hand is really one that wants action.

[Phil Van Sexton]

Being a 10/1-20/2 player, I'm not questioning your strategy, but I would have likely folded the A6.

Rather than having a fixed list of hands that I'll steal with, I try to steal a certain percentage of the time.

Your opponents will loosen or tighten up their calling requirement based on how often you steal...and they do this regardless of your cards (since they never see them).

Therefore, if my steal % is higher than what I consider ideal due a run of good cards, I will start tightening up considerably. Conversely, if I fold several in a row, I will then try to steal with anything.

If you know your opponents are adjusting, you must adjust also. Maybe A6 is still pushable after an adjustment, but that's for you to decide.

[aaronjacobg]

Jason,
Are u talking chip EV or $EV? As for Chip EV you will steal many times with this hand and you will win many times when you are called. However, IMO the push steal makes it a -$EV move because when you lose 5 handed you get nothing. you are either stealing a little or going broke. Maybe consider this.

Jake

[durron597]

You don't want a call with a middle PP with A6 - after stealing 4 hands in a row you no longer have a tight table image and middle PPs or hands like A8 will call you now. With A6 after pushing 4 times, I might try to minraise or something to make people think that THIS is the hand like AA, so now that I'm doing something out of character this is the real hand.

[AJo Go All In]

Rather than having a fixed list of hands that I'll steal with, I try to steal a certain percentage of the time.

this is fine assuming you lose if you get called. however things don't actually work this way. you may even win! so it's still better to push with A6 after you've stolen the last 10 hands, than it is to push with 32o after folding the last 10 hands.

[Jason Strasser]

Ok.

I like the tone of this response. I think I was not looking at my table image hard enough. A6 is an auto-steal for me, but I think I maybe should've reconsidered. I do also think that this is an extreme case. I really don't want people making lose calls with suited connectors and such for reasons you stated.

Generally I will not tighten up and steal 2-3x in a row if I have the right hand, I think if I come across this spot again I may just fold and wait.

Still not 100% sure tho..

[Jason Strasser]

Ehhh.

I don't min raise here, its not a good spot. I wouldn't min raise AA, my opponents know this. I play AA, KK and A6o the same way here.

[Jason Strasser]

I hear what you are saying Phil, however I think the players at the $200 level are slightly different. They are less apt to say "man, he's bluffing, im sick of it, ok I'll call with QTo", then someone at the $200 table. People will still need to pick up a hand to call my all-in, even if I have the loosest table image in the world.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
I think going all-in with A6 was definitely pushing your luck

[/ QUOTE ]

This is weak tight thinking. There are a lot more factors that need to be considered, especially stack size. If you are on the button and only have 4 big blinds to work with, this is a very easy all-in. If you are UTG and you and at least one other player have 20 big blinds to work with, going all-in here would be attrocious.

[LSUfan1]

I try not to over protect my blinds, but in a case where someone has stolen 6 or 8 in a row I will feel it is an easier call. Obviously the TT call was going to happen regardless, but in this situation you will be called by many more hands. If you are wanting a clean steal I personally think you have to consider the number of steal attempts you have made.

Keep in mind this is coming from a newbie, so maybe you are getting yet another perspective.

That's my 2 cents worth anyway.

[fnurt]

We don't know the stack sizes here, but after winning the previous 4 hands, I sure hope he has more than 4 BB! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Does anyone consider the last hand, or the last two hands when determining when to steal?

I absolutely consider it, and I think it's crucial. At any point a key component of your steal is the fold equity. If I think my image for the past few hands will cause someone to call me more or less often I definitely take that into account with regards to the range of hands I play.

[Jason Strasser]

Button Strassa2 (T2100)
SB 1.5k
BB (with TT) = (T2800)
UTG 2k
UTG+1 1.6k

Blinds has just moved to 200/400.

A6 in the button. Just robbed from small stack to 2nd stack.

[stupidsucker]

A6 is an autopush for me too, BUT after so many steals in a row... I think it might be a good one to lay down. I do not feel its weak/tight play. But I do feel you are more likely to get a call here then if it was your first push. Part of pushing with A6 is because the chances of stealing are enough to outweigh getting called and losing. I think after the 5th push your chances of stealing go down down down.

Poker isnt black and white, and can not always be put into ABC. sometimes just common sense dictates play .

Ask yourself.. would you lower your standard of calling hands if the same guy pushed 5 times in a row? I think I would a little.

I dont think the push was a bad move, just unfortunate, and its certainly not a terrible move to fold either.

Good post

[Jason Strasser]

I am talking about both. I think that generally speaking, outside of the realm of my little extreme scenario, pushing from the button with A6o is mandatory and positive EV, both cEV and $EV. Considering the fact that each round I have to play 1/5 of my stack in blinds, folding isnt really a great thing here.

This post was not really about pushing A6o on the button, because that is correct in my game, but more about whether I should've folded the marginal hand because I had a wild image at the time.

[Jason Strasser]

AJ, now you know stack sizes. You know how I play, what do you do?


P.S. Couldn't u do better than a career .286 hitter with 187 homers?

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
Button Strassa2 (T2100)
SB 1.5k
BB (with TT) = (T2800)
UTG 2k
UTG+1 1.6k

Blinds has just moved to 200/400.

A6 in the button. Just robbed from small stack to 2nd stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it's folded to you on the button here, you could flip your hand face up, then go all-in, and your raise would still be +ev.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Button Strassa2 (T2100)
SB 1.5k
BB (with TT) = (T2800)
UTG 2k
UTG+1 1.6k

Blinds has just moved to 200/400.

A6 in the button. Just robbed from small stack to 2nd stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it's folded to you on the button here, you could flip your hand face up, then go all-in, and your raise would still be +ev.

[/ QUOTE ]

HUH?

You're saying if TT saw the A6 he might fold? I doubt it highly.. So you might as well be calling TT with your A6. How is this +EV?

Forgive me if I am wrong, I didnt do the math, just dont understand it.

[AJo Go All In]

of course if you knew the BB had tens you would muck. he is saying assuming you don't know the hands you're up against.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
of course if you knew the BB had tens you would muck. he is saying assuming you don't know the hands you're up against.

[/ QUOTE ]

correct.

[stupidsucker]

Still doesnt make any sense to say it at all then.

He is using the
same blinds
same stacks
same positions
same starting hand (A6o)

so the TT is going to also be the same.

So no matter if you flip your hand over, stand on your head, say a prayer or chant ACE ACE ACE.. your EV is exactly the same.

So what is the point of flipping your cards over?(of course you can't in an internet game)

If it was live I guess you could, and after so many steals I think showing before the raise might actualy be a good idea (If allowed). Because you are less likley to get called on frustration.

This is way off subject. I just dont like it when everything is so black and white. "I am right you are wrong"

Putting random hands in the SB and BB keeping the A6o would yield different results, and there is no way to know how they would have reacted to the steal if they had say K7s or maybe 55. because of the number of steal raises in a row.

I agree 100% that A6o is a +EV move mathwise(baring random cards in the SB/BB), and totaly respect anyone that would raise here. I probably would too. BUT.. to ignore the x factor and say that you should always play it by the Math and ignore other factors in poker is not something I would stand behind.

For those that know my posts, I will happily take any side of an argument for the sake of learning. I respect ZJ very very much, and owe a lot to him for posts he has made.

I am arguing for the sake of arguing a point. If I have offended I appologise. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

In summary...
A6o loses some of its folding equity when your table imgae has changed, and imo should be a factor on pushing or not pushing. As for the ZJ quote.. All I am saying is.. what does showing your hand have to do with anything at all?

[fnurt]

The assumption seems to be that flipping your cards up is -EV. I totally disagree with that, because hands like KQ may fold rather than face a coinflip, whereas they would have (correctly) called otherwise, thinking they probably have the best hand against a repeated stealer.

By flipping your cards up, you are simply placing a bet on whether one of the blinds has a better hand, which could very well be +EV, but that's irrelevant to the actual situation.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
HUH?

You're saying if TT saw the A6 he might fold? I doubt it highly.. So you might as well be calling TT with your A6. How is this +EV?

Forgive me if I am wrong, I didnt do the math, just dont understand it.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's saying there is value to the raise, they see you have A6 but that doesn't help them if they have no hand. It reduces you're EV because they now fold a few hands you have beaten that they would have called but is still +EV.

For me this is another easy push. I would think of what had been happening for borderline raises but this raise is not borderline.

[Hirez]

I just went out of a MTT in 8th when i got KQs (i pushed in MP) to steal the blinds/limper. Then i got AQc (pushed, took the blinds again) then KQc again so i pushed, and got a crying call by A7 in the BB.

I dont think he would have called if i didn't steal the 2 previous hands, but i was short stacked so i was trying to work my way up, at this point i had about 12k to his 22k.

But it did seem like i was stealing just to be stealing, even though i had real hands. Too bad he didn't call when i had AQ /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Not sure if i would play it any differently again, maybe a medium raise instead of all in.

[Jason Strasser]

So basically, ignore the fact that I've stolen the 4 previous hands, and that A6 on the button is still A6 on the button? That was my thinking.

We are no where near a consensus.

[Hood]

Well he's my 2c.

I certainly wouldn't have pushed with that A6. Normally I would with A6, but not after pushing the last 4.

It's fair to assume that there's an increased chance of getting called here.

In the case of TT, yes, he probably would have called regardless of your previous action. But what if he had say A7-AT, 77-TT - I think there's more chance a player would call and then we're in a bad shape.

But more importantly, if will also encourage players with hands we are slight favourite with, or a 50-50. Hands like KQ-K8, QJ-Q9, 22-66 are more likely to call as well.

As you've stated in the current thread regarding coin-flips and close-calls on the bubble, you want to avoid them as much as possible. I think pushing with A6 after 5 straight pushes and a table getting rather angry, you're making yourself vulnerable to this situation.

What's important here I think is that players on the buble, even in low limits, are often aware of the gap concept in that they won't call unless they've got a better than raising hand. The more 'wild' you seem in their eyes, the less this gap is to them, or infact this gap may reverse (they'll call more when you go all-in than them opening to start with).

There are still a lot of hands I'd push here. Middle pocket pairs upwards, and big cards AK-A9, KQ-KT, because though there's a higher chance of getting called, these hands are of lower quality and are less likely to dominate you. But A6 just seems to be the type of hand that will get dominated by worse-than-usual calling hands.

[AJo Go All In]

what the hell are you talking about?

[Tosh]

I can't see why we don't have a consensus. You've pushed a number of previous, so what ? Does that give them better hands to call with ?

[Jason Strasser]

Well I kinda liked Fnurts idea and post:

[ QUOTE ]
As for A6 on the button, it's not just a question of whether the blinds have a bigger hand than you. A6 surely rates to be the best hand 3-handed. However, the problem is that because you just raised 4 hands in a row, you're likely to get called with a lot of hands you'd rather not play against for all your chips, like KQ, KJ, QJ, whatever. If some guy goes on tilt and calls you with 98s... well, that's not a great situation for you, even if it's technically +EV.

I wouldn't take this idea too far, but I think raising 5 hands in a row is one of those extreme situations. As odd as it feels, I've laid down hands in situations like this, and it's worth considering.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's wrong then?

[Tosh]

I think he's right if you held a marginal hand.

I may of course be too aggressive but its still a push IMO.

[allenciox]

The problem isn't that you know they have a middle pair. Once they place you as wild, they will call with

1) any pair --- you are dominated unless pair smaller than six, in which case you are a coin flip.
2) A-any, against A-small you most likely have a split pot. Any other A dominates you.
3) KQ-K9, QJ-Q9, middle connectors --- in which case it is almost a coin flip (for example, against 89o you are a 55.9% favorite).

I would fold here.

[Tosh]

I was thinking about this, does anyone ever think its a good idea to show the kings or AQ here so they don't feel like Fnurt suggested and call you with hands you'd really rather they didn't.

[Jason Strasser]

I dont like showing any hands. Also, I find that when people show a big hand they steal with, and they steal the NEXT hand, many people are like "Aaahaha! He is trying to trick me and think he has Aces again!" And they call with the same crap.

[Tosh]

I never show either but often wonder if its worth doing on occasions. Btw this whole post is exactly why I love poker, the Pyscology of it.

[coolhandtom]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone consider the last hand, or the last two hands when determining when to steal?

I absolutely consider it, and I think it's crucial. At any point a key component of your steal is the fold equity. If I think my image for the past few hands will cause someone to call me more or less often I definitely take that into account with regards to the range of hands I play.

[/ QUOTE ]


strassa, i think this is your answer right here. once you have stolen a few, and in a row, the chances that no one has a decent-good hand out of 5 players 5-6 hands in a row severely decreases. and if i am one of those players, i realize the smaller chances that 6 hands in a row you have gotten Ax or Kx.. kind of like roulette, black hits 10 in a row, well sh_t red is gonna come up sooner or later.. so after a few steals, you figure one of those is a marginal hand, like A6 [at least marginal to pocket pair- bad coinflip for all your chips just to steal] and someone will call you, either out of respect for watching 6 blinds be stolen, or because he has 10 10.

my 2c /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[Jason Strasser]

In a mathematical sense, your statement:

[ QUOTE ]
and if i am one of those players, i realize the smaller chances that 6 hands in a row you have gotten Ax or Kx.. kind of like roulette, black hits 10 in a row, well sh_t red is gonna come up sooner or later..

[/ QUOTE ]

Is wrong. Maybe you are correct on the psychological front, which I know very little about. But if you play the roulette table, figuring that the 11th black in a row is impossible, your silly. The probability that I get Ax or Kx is the same each hand. Sure it is unlikely I get them 5 in a row, but if you look at it on a hand by hand basis, the probability is all the same.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
I totally disagree with that, because hands like KQ may fold rather than face a coinflip,

[/ QUOTE ]

If only 1st got paid, KQ would actually be correct to call you. The fact that this is an SNG is the only thing that makes his call incorrect. Either way, you want KQ to fold.

[Dav123]

Jason touched on it, but I think its importance is lost. I agree that your liklihood of being called goes up with every successive raise. But not much.

What hands will you most likely be called my NOW that you WOULDN'T have been called by if you had not raised for a few hands?

IMO Smaller Aces, smaller pairs, KQ, KJ, KT, and maybe QJ.

HELLO, you're a favorite against most of these and a very small dog against a few. I know, being a favorite isn't worth much (obviously, you don't want to be called by anything), but if it is normally correct to raise here (and it unquestionably is) adding only a few hands that you are favored against shouldn't turn it into a fold.

[coolhandtom]

your confusing yourself here. i agree, that on every turn of the roulette wheel, black and red are 50/50 EVERY time, every turn, every day, etc. But as one color is rolled in succession many times in a row, the probability of it continuing on gets smaller and smaller.
In the other post about folding KK, a poster put up that AA KK QQ JJ dealt as hole cards in one hand is a 440,000 to 1 probability. now using math and having those exact hands dealt multiple times in a row, the probability goes up past a million to 1.
the same with your chances of having premium hands 5 or 6 or even 3 times in a row. yes, we all know it happens. i have been dealt KK in back to back hands, but probability factors in.
so yes, every hand the probability is the same FOR THAT hand that you can get AK, AA, 5-3, whatever. but string it along in multiple hands, and probability works against you. and it also works in the favor of those around you finally making a hand to call your all in bluff, with only A6, after your 6th push in a row.

thats my story, and im stickin to it. /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
But as one color is rolled in succession many times in a row, the probability of it continuing on gets smaller and smaller.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is wrong, wrong, wrong.

[Jason Strasser]

Yes, he is wrong. I was not talking about the odds of getting 5 steal worthy hands in a row. I was talking about the odds in ONE given hand. What I had last hand has no impact on what I have in the current hand. Completely independant. Are you saying that in a casino if there are 10 blacks in a row, you bet the house on red? Please!

[Tosh]

You're making 2 errors IMO.

1) You seem to imply that previous events affect what you may be dealt the next hand, or the roulette spin.

[ QUOTE ]
But as one color is rolled in succession many times in a row, the probability of it continuing on gets smaller and smaller.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is just wrong.

2) You are also saying that the A6 push is a bluff, that it is not.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
your confusing yourself here. i agree, that on every turn of the roulette wheel, black and red are 50/50 EVERY time, every turn, every day, etc. But as one color is rolled in succession many times in a row, the probability of it continuing on gets smaller and smaller.
In the other post about folding KK, a poster put up that AA KK QQ JJ dealt as hole cards in one hand is a 440,000 to 1 probability. now using math and having those exact hands dealt multiple times in a row, the probability goes up past a million to 1.
the same with your chances of having premium hands 5 or 6 or even 3 times in a row. yes, we all know it happens. i have been dealt KK in back to back hands, but probability factors in.
so yes, every hand the probability is the same FOR THAT hand that you can get AK, AA, 5-3, whatever. but string it along in multiple hands, and probability works against you. and it also works in the favor of those around you finally making a hand to call your all in bluff, with only A6, after your 6th push in a row.

thats my story, and im stickin to it

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I call "fuzzy thinking".

[coolhandtom]

so Tosh you are saying that every time you get A6, you are going to go ALL IN with your chips? i hope so, as I pray to be the caller in that hand every time. it may not be a bluff, as i would put all in with 5- 3 as a bluff to steal, but it is a dog to any pair, and dead toast to any A -6 and above. a better steal is 5-6 x's BB, not all in.

I will agree that my probability thinking could be off slightly, i am no mathmetician by any stretch. i am saying the probability of getting called goes up, and I sure as hell dont want to be all in with a measily A6 in a not short handed game. just aint worth it.
/images/graemlins/spade.gif

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
Jason touched on it, but I think its importance is lost. I agree that your liklihood of being called goes up with every successive raise. But not much.

What hands will you most likely be called my NOW that you WOULDN'T have been called by if you had not raised for a few hands?

IMO Smaller Aces, smaller pairs, KQ, KJ, KT, and maybe QJ.

HELLO, you're a favorite against most of these and a very small dog against a few. I know, being a favorite isn't worth much (obviously, you don't want to be called by anything), but if it is normally correct to raise here (and it unquestionably is) adding only a few hands that you are favored against shouldn't turn it into a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

HELLO friend.

I don't feel I missed this point. Of course you are a favorite against KQ. That doesn't mean you want KQ to call you for all your chips, however. Even though your hand rates to be a slight favorite against whatever calls you, you're still looking to pick up the blinds with this bet.

If the KQ was face up, would you still push with A6? I think this would be a tough decision under normal circumstances, only because you're on the button and get less respect as a result. I would expect KQ to likely fold if I raised from another position. Anyway, having raised the last 4 hands, I don't think it's a close call any more, because KQ is very, very likely to call you, thinking he is favored over a LAG like yourself.

Of course, the cards aren't face up, and he doesn't have to have a hand as good as KQ. But the point is, there are a wide range of hands that are going to call you here and leave you as a 55-45 favorite, because they won't give you credit for a hand as good as Ax. I'd rather not bet my stack on that slim a proposition.

[stupidsucker]

LoL

Now this post is getting silly

Can we agree to disagree slightly....

I refuse to comment on the roullette black/red

whoops I guess thats a comment.

It seems to me this is more about personal preference and the SnG world of RoIs does not hang in the balance.

If off to the casino to play bacarat. When a tie hasnt happened for 30 times in a row, im putting down 10 blacks.

I'll be a millionaire.. Good luck with poker ... suckers grinding it out.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
so Tosh you are saying that every time you get A6, you are going to go ALL IN with your chips? i hope so, as I pray to be the caller in that hand every time. it may not be a bluff, as i would put all in with 5- 3 as a bluff to steal, but it is a dog to any pair, and dead toast to any A -6 and above. a better steal is 5-6 x's BB, not all in.

I will agree that my probability thinking could be off slightly, i am no mathmetician by any stretch. i am saying the probability of getting called goes up, and I sure as hell dont want to be all in with a measily A6 in a not short handed game. just aint worth it.
/images/graemlins/spade.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

But if it is folded to you on the button, then you are in a short-handed game, silly bunching theories aside.

[Tosh]

IMO its not a bluff because I don't expect a better hand to fold.

I don't mean to sound like a jerk but you should read a couple of 2+2 books you may not have come across. 'Getting the best of it' and 'Gambling Theory and other topics', but general gambling books, both very good.

[Dav123]

"If the KQ was face up, would you still push with A6?"

NO, but its not. My point was that there were only a few more hands that would call you, and even in the unlikelihood they were out there, you would not be in too bad shape. You used KQ, what about A4, I'll play that one for all my chips here.

If it were close on raising with the A6 to begin with, you would absolutely be right, the fews extra calls would take away any +EV. But its not close.

[coolhandtom]

i respect all posts and suggestions, as i consider myself a better than average player, but still relatively new to the game.

i just cant see going all in for the steal with A6. i agree with the blind steal attempt, but not the way it was carried out. even with all folding to me, it is early in tourni, not worth the risk to me. but i dont have a 5 figure BR, so thats just IMO.

i will definitely check those books out and add them to my 2+2 bookshelf. /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
i respect all posts and suggestions, as i consider myself a better than average player, but still relatively new to the game.

i just cant see going all in for the steal with A6. i agree with the blind steal attempt, but not the way it was carried out. even with all folding to me, it is early in tourni, not worth the risk to me. but i dont have a 5 figure BR, so thats just IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is not early in the tourney, it is 5-handed on the bubble, and the blinds represent 30% of the raiser's stack.

[stupidsucker]

Dell Taco?
Or Taco Bell?

[bombusan]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been pondering this little nugget for a bit. I've heard many posters on this forum, and in the multi-table forum say that they hate stealing blinds twice in a row.


[/ QUOTE ]

When I get a string of good cards and it comes to blind stealing or raising from one of the blinds, I only tend to do so if my 2 cards are progressively better- or a PP. I did 3 steals in a row last night, KQs, 99, AA- and on the third one, someone got upset and called =). On the flip side, if I see someone blind stealing repeatedly, I'm tempted to reraise/call on one of them- as long as I have something decent

[ZeeJustin]

Situation, your A6o is face up. Even though the opponents are getting pot odds to call with hands that are not a favorite over A6o, we will assume they will only call with favorites because this is an SNG.

There are 50x49/2 combinations of hole cards (note this is slightly inaccurate because the folders do impact the range of hands of everyone else, but we will ignore that since the impact is very slight) left in the deck.
1225 total combinations.
The following hands will call:
22-55 - 6x4=24 combinations
66 - 3 combinations
77-KK 7x6 = 42 combinations
AA - 3 combinations
A6 - 9 combinations
A7-AK - 12x6=72 combinations
24+3+42+3+9+72= 153 combinations
153/1225 hands will call. This comes out to 12.5 percent.
Since there are two opponents, you will be called 25% of the time. (actually, you will be called less, but since we are not factoring in the situations where you are called by 2 opponents, these situations should just about cancel each other out)

When you are called, your equity is 32% (calculated via pokerstove).
75% of the time, you will win 600 chips.
25% of the time (crap, I'm just now reaizing that SB and BB have signifcantly different stack sizes, more math to follow)
12.5% of the time, you risk 1.5k chips and the final pot is 3.4k. You will win 32% of this 3,400 or 1088 chips.
12.5% of the time, you risk all your chips and the final pot is 4400. 32% of this is 1408 chips.
(1408+1088)/2 = 1248.
This is the amount of chips you will have after the hand, so we must subtract this amount from your stack size of 2.1k. 2100-1248= 852 chips.

(.75 x 600) + (.25 x - 852) = 450- 213 = +237 chips.

<font color="red"> With your hand FACE UP, you will win approximately 237 chips on average per hand. </font>

In reality, this number will be much higher because your opponent will call with approximately the same % of hands, but a less correct range (i.e they will fold 22 but call with KQ instead). Also, occassionally some players will egregiously misplay and fold hands that obviously should call (AJo), or call with hands that clearly should not call (76s).

Edit: I am not going to calculate it, but notice there would be a very significant difference in these results if you were in the cutoff instead of on the button. You would now be called an extra 50% of the time. Hopefully this should show the importance of position when deciding whether or not to shove, so please stop asking, "Do you go all-in with xx on the bubble?" without indicating stack sizes, blinds, or position.

[ZeeJustin]

Also note that 8% of the time you will go broke.
8% of the time, you will be knocked down to 600 chips.
4.5% of the time, you will win be a huge chipleader with 5.1k chips when the next highest stack is 2k.
4.5% of the time you will have 4k chips with the next biggest stack at 2.4k.
75% of the time you will have 2.7k chips with the next biggest stack at 2.4k.

You will be chipleader after this hand 84% of the time.

+237 chips may seem small, but this is over 10% of your stack. It is VERY significant, and giving this edge up is not borderline; it is a leak in your game.

[fnurt]

That's true, if the opponent will fold hundreds and hundreds of combinations where his EV is positive, then you end up with positive EV. What if he won't? It's not logical to assume the opponent will call with a 51-49 edge, but he will fold at 49-51, even though the pot is offering him a big overlay on the call.

Do you realize the BB has odds to call with A2o here? He won't, not if your cards are face up, but he very well might if your cards are face down. On the fifth consecutive raise, many players are calling you with any ace, not to mention KQ, QJ, JTs, and many other reasonable hands.

As I said above, you GAIN equity here if you turn your cards face up. The reason is that you will persuade your opponent to incorrectly fold many hands like KQ. When you can't show your cards, they will assume there is no way you could have an ace five times in a row, and they will call with a lot of hands.

The real problem, of course, is the risk that you take of busting out, because you don't want to risk busting just to gain a small amount of EV. If you assume the BB will only call you 12.5% of the time, then sure, you won't bust out very often, but there is no way he only calls you 1 in 8 times.

[ZeeJustin]

If this were a ring game, you would be correct. This is an SNG. +ev in chips does not equate to +ev in $. As a result, it is most certainly incorrect for the BB to call with A2o, and I think KQ would also be -ev, although that is somewhat close.

Some of what you say would have bearing if I showed that shoving is slightly +ev. It isn't. It is a HUGE positive expectation.

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If you assume the BB will only call you 12.5% of the time, then sure, you won't bust out very often, but there is no way he only calls you 1 in 8 times.

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What range of hands do you think the BB is calling with here?

[Phishy McFish]

If you find yourself stealing successful and fear that it will get you a call when you don't want one later.....why not show one or two hands that you had to take the blinds down with.....just to let them know....I wasn't stealing....I had the goods.

[ZeeJustin]

I want to clarify to show that you actually do have a point (note that I am NOT saying you are correct or incorrect), but I don't think most people here understand why flipping your hand face up could in theory be +ev.

Since this is an SNG, the rule of "you want your opponent to play incorrectly" is not always true. It is very possible that you could suffer from the BB making a -ev play. For example, if he were to call with K8o, you and the BB would both suffer. The other 3 players in the hand would profit. This is because of the payout structure. Some of you may not understand this concept, but imagine that the payout is 0/500/500/500/500 instead of 0/0/400/600/1000. Proper strategy could include folding hands as good as AJo preflop. These hands are clearly +ev in terms of chips, but they are -ev in terms of $ because you are risking elimination.

Long story short, by flipping your hand face up, the BB will be less likely to make one of these incorrect players that you suffer from but the other players profit from.

I am hungry now, but maybe later I'll do some math to see the impact on changing the range of hands that you are called by, for example, adding KQ to the mix.

I still believe (but am not 100% sure) that having your hand face down is better than face up because your opponents have to play a guessing game. Even if they called with the same % of hands, they would still lose money because they will (correctly) be calling with hands like KQo instead of 22, and losing money as a result.

[Chief911]

Jason,

Preface this by I'm only on the 50+5 level, but I think you have to be very interested in what your image is.

I have a small rule I use when stealing blinds. When I steal in succession, my quality of those hands has to increase, because I believe very firmly as someone starts to see someone run over the table, the hands they would CALL/Reraise that stealer with decreases. I think I'd steal each of those 4 times, but I'd lay down A6 in a heartbeat. Too much risk of someone calling with Ax that has you beat.

Nick

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
If this were a ring game, you would be correct. This is an SNG. +ev in chips does not equate to +ev in $. As a result, it is most certainly incorrect for the BB to call with A2o, and I think KQ would also be -ev, although that is somewhat close.

Some of what you say would have bearing if I showed that shoving is slightly +ev. It isn't. It is a HUGE positive expectation.

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If you assume the BB will only call you 12.5% of the time, then sure, you won't bust out very often, but there is no way he only calls you 1 in 8 times.

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What range of hands do you think the BB is calling with here?

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Ok, hang on a second. Jason gets to analyze his decision in terms of chip EV (you increase your stack by 10%, it must be the right move!), but the BB has to think strictly about tournament EV, even though it's Jason who has the only risk of busting here? When Jason gives up an edge of T237 it's a leak in his game; when the BB calls with any of the large number of 55-45 underdogs that have an edge of T280, however, we're supposed to believe that it's a terrible call!

Let's talk about Jason's decision in terms of cash EV. If he folds, his real-money expectation with 2100 chips is $415 (a figure requiring some complicated math, which we will skip, to arrive at). If he picks up the blinds, his expectation goes up to $498, an $83 gain.

However, if he gets called by the BB, where he only has a 32% chance of winning, his equity drops by $194 (again, more complicated math deleted). If he gets called by the SB, where he doesn't have the risk of busting, his equity drops by $107. Since the assumption is that each blind has a 1/8 chance of calling, Jason's total gain from raising is $24 - a gain, yes, but only about 6% of his equity at the start of the hand. Far from the "clear choice" some have referenced.

Now remember, we're talking about the FACE-UP scenario here. If Jason's hand is face up, he gains $24 by raising. But I stand by my point that he loses equity because his hand is actually face down. Maybe the BB won't call with 22-44 now, but every time he calls with KQ, KJ, QJ, JTs, and the like, Jason still loses cash EV, even though he is a small favorite in the hand. Indeed, and once again I'll spare you the math, Jason needs to be a 60/40 favorite in the hand to be happy about getting called!

Now, I will be glad to dredge up the boring math at this point, if it will help anyone understand that raising here is marginal, even in the very best-case scenario.

[stupidsucker]

What math equation do you have for the % chance someone will call with almost anything out of frustration of being stolen from a 5th time in a row?

My point is... that flipping your cards face up isn’t reality. You can’t do it in a SnG, and this IS a SNG. The best you can do is type your hand in, and what good is that?

I understand 100% the idea of being able to flip it over in a live game, and I would be tempted to do so on the 5th steal.

All that math doesn’t hit home with what this post is about. Almost every poster here agrees that A6o is a +EV push, and all the odds you posted are based on if they all throw away any hand not +EV to call.(because they can see your hand) The stone cold reality is that they cant see your hand, you cant see theirs, and this is the 5th steal in a row.

Based on the facts of reality how do you handle this. Not any fictional hax that make you able to show your cards before you push. Showing your cards changes the whole idea of the original post and is 100% irrelevant.

Not to mention it doesn’t bank on the chances that SB has AX himself and will push if you lay down, but wont call your push. Most of the posts here ignore the whole point. Folding equity has gone down. People are pissy you have stolen 4times in a row and are going for #5. You never want a call with the hand A6o except from maybe A5o otherwise it’s a coin flip even if you are ahead, and not worth the risk.

Do only a few people see that the folding equity has gone down, possibly significantly? If anything you have proven to me in your mathematics that the ONLY reason A6o is a push is due to the folding equity. All your figures are based on them seeing your cards and throwing away any hand that is behind/-EV.. DO them again with several more hands calling. I am very curious of the results.
Don’t forget that if you fold here then the math is easy. 100% of the time your chip count will be 2100 chips and that isn’t bad at all. You still have over a 75% chance to make the money in this situation with zero risk involved.

Sorry if I seem emphatic. I just like to argue points that I think are worth arguing. I like going against the flow, and once again, I hope I don’t offend anyone, mainly ZJ for disagreeing with the relevance of his post. Although I feel I am a good SnG player, ZJ and many others that disagree with me are proven better players with a history of win after win. I only play at the 20’s now and I am afraid to go beyond 50’s. A lot of my argument is based on wanting to know why, and I feel I cant get the best answer unless I argue my point tooth and nail. As of now I am unsatisfied with the answers. I want to hear these people say that the folding equity hasn’t gone down enough to affect the hand and tell me why/how they can prove that.(I saw “enough” because you will never convince me that folding equity hasn’t gone down)

[stupidsucker]

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What range of hands do you think the BB is calling with here?


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I think both the SB and the BB will easily call with a ton more hands then you listed.

Because of the amount of steals they will very well call you with
K9-KQ
Q9-QJ
A2-A5
TJs isnt unlikely either from the BB
22-55 is also not unlikely from either of the players

a frustration call of K2s-K8s would not surprise me one little bit. A few 2+2ers have mentioned that the 200's are not without fish, and its not unlikely they could call with almost any suited connector. Maybe not normally, BUT its the folding equity lost that creates loose calls from the other 2 , espeically the BB.