Very uncomfortable

[Michael Davis]

$9-18. There are two big blinds in this hand, I am the one directly to the left of the button.

Two players limp, MP raises, two players coldcall and I call with 9d8d. The other BB threebets, all call, MP caps, all call and I call. Yippee, a capped with 98...

Flop: Qs 7s 2h

I check, the other BB bets, two people fold, and I call.

Turn: Qs 7s 2h (5d)

I check, other BB bets, two call, and I call.

The river is a rag. I lose.

-Michael

[nopepper]

mmm wow

pre flop fold
flop fold twice
river burn your cards
turn burn your chair

[Michael Davis]

When do I fold preflop? When I have to call two?

I don't know what you mean by burn your chair, but I know I can't fold this turn.

-Michael

[nopepper]

i would fold to a 3rd bet pre...

why cant you fold on the turn? all you have is a gut shot no? am i reading this post wrong?

[Six_of_One]

If I'm reading the post correctly, it's a capped 7-way pot. That means 14 BB's in the pot before the flop. So, on the turn, the gutshot is all he needs to call.

[andyfox]

He's getting something like 19.5:1. Even if the spade 6 is not an out, he's 14.3:1 to catch the nuts.

[Michael Davis]

I didn't call three bets cold preflop. I called one raise, and then called two more bets when it got capped.

Yes, I had only a gutshot, and only three outs to the nuts. But I was getting like 19-1. That was the easiest street to play.

-Michael

[Rushmore]

Yes, you can fold this cheese preflop when it comes back at you for 2 cold. It's OK, really. Let go and let God.

Yes, you can definitely let go of this on the flop. It's still cheese, and even though there is some chance that you might spike one of the four cards that look like they might maybe conceivably possibly get you the pot (if you live on Venus and the players have very different playing styles), it's just obvious that this just ain't a good idea to be putting money into the pot here.

The turn. Great. You manufactured a call. It's OK.

River: Pick up what remains of your stack. Go to the bar. Get a gin and tonic. Go home.

[Michael Davis]

Is my flop call here closing the action correct?

-Michael

[DCIAce]

This would be a horrible fold on the turn. He's getting somewhere between 18-1 and 20-1 pot odds on a 3 or 4 outer (don't think you can count the 6s, but it could possibly be an out, if you're incredibly lucky /images/graemlins/tongue.gif )

Maybe I fold on the flop, but it seems like a call closing the action with such a giant pot is a solid option.

[nopepper]

sorry mis read the post...i thought it was 12 sb's going in. the turn call was OK even though i would hate doing it.

I still fold pre-flop

[1800GAMBLER]

Folding anywhere preflop is silly and shouldn't have even come up. Infact, so is postflop.

[Turkish]

Hahaha. Burn your chair, I love it.

[ike]

I agree. The preflop play is standard. On the flop you're getting implied odds in the neighborhood of 50 : 1. You've got a runner runner straight draw and trips are probably also good, easy call. Turn you have a gutshot to the nuts and you're getting nearly 20 : 1, also an easy call. Yes, its unpleasant putting a bunch of money in on a longshot. No, that doesn't mean you're allowed to fold when your pot odds clearly indicate a call.

[skp]

hm..good question. Perhaps, the math types can properly analyze this one. You are getting 32:1 current odds on what is essentially a 1 outer (i.e. backdoor straight draw). Your effective odds are worse as you have to probably call a bet on the turn too in order to complete your draw.

Without actually doing the math, I don't think the call is very good. And again, without doing the math, the call is probably correct (or marginally incorrect) if the flop had a diamond.

[DcifrThs]

ok, looks like a nice pot building when you call the first raise...but then 2 back to you...i fold here...odds schmodds...you're implied odds are KILLED!

on the flop you check fold...you'd have to hit 3 outs once and THEN ANOTHER 3 outs on the river to have a straight which is the only hand you're 100% comfortable with in this spot.

very uncomfortable indeed...

-Barron

[Lottery Larry]

why did you call the flop?

[DcifrThs]

skp,

if the flop contained ONE diamond AND two other suits (rainbow flop) then calling one closing the action getting 32:1 is correct play with 2 backdoor draws to likely pot winning hands.

here it ain't the case...i fold preflop for 2 more back and check fold the flop due to extenuating circumstances.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding anywhere preflop is silly and shouldn't have even come up. Infact, so is postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

you'd want to put in another 2 bets preflop? obviously so...

having done so you want to check call to TRY to manufacture a hand that may just end up costing you bets since you can't fold when you're straight card hits that also brings a flush? like i said, change one of the spades to a diamond and i check call the flop closing the action.

youd need a 9 and another 9 or an 8 and another 8 and even then you could still be up against queens and drawing to precisely the straight (with only 6 cards you need to catch 1/3 on the first 47 cards and then 1/3 on the next 46)...thats 239:1 AGAINST...i think the pot may be somewhat smaller than that.

-Barron

[ike]

Your effective odds aren't nearly as bad as you're thinking because by the turn you're either in fairly good shape (gutshot or better) or folding.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree. The preflop play is standard. On the flop you're getting implied odds in the neighborhood of 50 : 1. You've got a runner runner straight draw and trips are probably also good, easy call. Turn you have a gutshot to the nuts and you're getting nearly 20 : 1, also an easy call. Yes, its unpleasant putting a bunch of money in on a longshot. No, that doesn't mean you're allowed to fold when your pot odds clearly indicate a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, now you and 1800 gambler say the same thing...meaning i'm probably much more wrong here than i was earlier willing to admit...

but 7*4-2:2=26:2 or 13:1...hmmm, i guess im wrong here preflop as i would call getting 13:1 with 98d in any situation...

but on the flop...how can you say 99 is good, or 88 or 98...i think you're likely drawing to precisely the straight and that is 239:1 against...sometimes trips will be good, but when they're not the still end up costing you more than the total outs and bet to call vs. what the pot is laying you.

now lets work it through. there are 2 nines and 2 eights left (no spades here b/c thats not a clean out). so you need one of either 4 cards plus one of the 2 possible 3card straights so thats 10 outs on the turn to continue drawing...10/47*X...now when you hit those outs on the turn, the straight offers you the most possibility as you're drawing to ONE card with the trips. so here's what i'll do, separate it all out.

10/47*

catch a 9, need another 9 (2/47)*(1/46)
catch an 8, need another 8 (2/47)*(1/46)
catch either straight card, need the other (6/47)*(3/46).

thats it...so the final answer is: 97.2727:1 against

and THAT IS JUST ON THE FLOP...you need that much effective odds to hit on the river and we all know what happens when you have to call a turn bet also...what if its raised on the turn?

i cannot see how this is a flop call.

-Barron

[Franchise (TTT)]

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting 32:1 current odds on what is essentially a 1 outer (i.e. backdoor straight draw).

[/ QUOTE ]

You're doing much better than that. You have runner-runner two pairs and trips that are potential winners as well.

[2005]

dcifr, I'm presuming these two are being scarcastic, but I could be wrong.

Gavin

[Franchise (TTT)]

You can't discount all spades as losers. At best you'd discount a fraction of the outs that you perceive the probability someone else has a flush draw. And you have no reason to suspect anyone is on a flush draw here. Changing a few outs here and there makes a drastic difference in the math. Not to mention your call/call playstyle is going to look like a flush draw to observant opponents.

But anyway, the point is the math is close. And in a pot this big, close is good enough. It's a small mistake versus a catastrophic error that will send you into tilt for the next month and a half. And if you win, you'll probably tilt half the table as well.

[2005]

The turn is the most clear cut street and quite easy to play, you have an easy call here.

Gavin

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
dcifr, I'm presuming these two are being scarcastic, but I could be wrong.

Gavin

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks gavin, but you're wrong /images/graemlins/frown.gif

ike and 1800 are two very very good players and posters whose opinions i respect. they are not joking...the size of the pot is astronomical and getting 13:1 preflop on the final two bets makes it worth it to call. then on the flop is where we differ.

they say its impossible to fold. i say its incorrect to call.

their argument is that if dcifrths is right, the error one makes in calling is fairly small relatively speaking due to the size of the pot. however, the error one makes in folding and the draw comes in could take weeks of theoretical play to recoup.

my contention is that the draw is SUCH A LONG SHOT given the board, and even when you hit some of your draw (trips) you can still lose to any of 3 sets on the flop that there is no way you could be happy with them. the straight draws, given the flushed board makes it very very hard for me to believe that nobody is on a spade draw so, yes, i discounted the outs to 0. maybe i should go and just discount them by 25%, 50%, 75% and 0% instead of my 100% discount and see what happens but i really think its an excersize in futility at this point.

i call preflop and check fold that particular flop. to me, the #'s just don't add up. ike and 1800, please prove me wrong as i will gladly accept defeat as it will only improve my play /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

-Barron

[ike]

WTF are you talking about? T or 6 gives you an OESD, J or 5 a gutshot. You like the 5 and 6 better because they let you draw to the nuts but the J and T still count as at least some fraction of an out. In any case your calculation is off by a lot. You also are not automatically beat when the third spade hits. But lets assume you are and do the math:

Hitting the 56789 straight:
You must catch a 5 or 6 on the turn and then the other on the river.
6/47 * 3/46 ~ 120 : 1 against
The same calculation holds for the 6789T and 89TJQ straights. Overall you're 40 : 1 against making a straight without a spade falling, though some of these straights may not be good. If you allow one spade to fall and your hand may still be good this gets alot better:
Making the 56789 straight:
A nonspade 5 or 6 can fall followed by any copy of the other or a spade 5 or 6 can fall followed by a nonspade copy of the other.
(6/47 * 4/46) + (2/47 * 3/46) ~ 77 : 1 against making the 56789 straight with 3 or fewer spades on board. So you're only a little worse than 25 : 1 against making any straight with 3 or fewer spades on the board. These hands will often not hold up but the pot is tremendous and your runner runner trip/twopair outs may also be clean. Call and pray.

P.S. I know my way around numbers but I'm far from a math god and I know some of you posters are. If I screwed this up please correct me.

[skp]

Point taken. In fact, even just one 9 or 8 might be good at times. But I still don't think (intuitively) that a call is correct but I'll do some calculations later today.

[ike]

See my reply to your other post. I'm pretty sure your math was wrong but having done a bunch of number crunching I'm also now convinced its closer than I originally believed. I'm still calling, but I'm no longer yelling at people who fold. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[J_V]

This flop call is a joke. Yes....not close.

[ike]

[ QUOTE ]
And if you win, you'll probably tilt half the table as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I know you're sorta joking, theres more to this than most people will give it credit for. On more than one occasion I've made literally dozens of BB's in a sitting off the insanity that often ensues when a giant longshot takes down a monster pot. Especially if its a B&M game. Especially if you crack AA, KK, or a set of queens.

[DcifrThs]

ok...you got me...

i totally missed what a ten or 6 would do to your outs (double them on the turn).

call and pray is correct.

ni han.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
See my reply to your other post. I'm pretty sure your math was wrong but having done a bunch of number crunching I'm also now convinced its closer than I originally believed. I'm still calling, but I'm no longer yelling at people who fold. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

we seem to be converging. im shying away from folding and you're shying away from yelling at me...

as i said to your other post: call and pray is correct.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
This flop call is a joke. Yes....not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

its only not as close b/c of the 7...

i mistook what a 6 or ten wouldd o for you...but change that 7 to a 5 and its not so close no more as you're looking at those longshot gutshots.

do you still call with 9d8d on Qs5s2c?

-Barron

[skp]

What about a Qs7s2d flop or a Qs7h2d flop?

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
What about a Qs7s2d flop or a Qs7h2d flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

or a Qs5s2d?? or a Qs5s2c?

-Barron

[skp]

Not to muddy the waters even more but a ten on the turn may still leave you with only 3 clean outs as hitting even an offsuit jack would make the board QJT72 and a little birdie once told me that AK is not that uncommon a hand in a preflop capped pot :-)

[Franchise (TTT)]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And if you win, you'll probably tilt half the table as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I know you're sorta joking, theres more to this than most people will give it credit for. On more than one occasion I've made literally dozens of BB's in a sitting off the insanity that often ensues when a giant longshot takes down a monster pot. Especially if its a B&M game. Especially if you crack AA, KK, or a set of queens.

[/ QUOTE ]

No joke. That's exactly what I meant.

[ike]

All but Qs5s2c (which is a fold) are very easy calls. AdKsQs would be a call.

[skp]

Never mind my other post in response to yours. I misunderstood what you were saying.

[tolbiny]

why don't you fold this flop?

[mplspoker]

Do you really think you have made money in your poker career by calling raises with 98s? In my opinion, almost regardless of the amount of callers you are playing catchup with a hand that can only win with a straight or a flush - which equals an automatic drawing hand..... hard way to make money...

[bernie]

How much more of an overlay does he need on the flop when he can make a str8 while it also makes a flush possible?

Not to mention if he catches a T and a J he could still lose to AK. A 6os is the perfect turn card for the draw. I think this parlay needs to be a little higher than the normal 22-1 shot runner.

b

[bernie]

I worked my way down the thread and noticed after i posted it. Duh! I should've known.

I'd fold this on the flop. If there was a diamond on the flop, id call, but not here. Maybe if it were a rainbow flop, i'd call. Even then, i think it's close. I don't see a JT coming really making you any more comfortable. You really need a lower card to hit. I might even not count the J as an out because of this.

If JT hits, you're stuck possibly calling multiple bets on the river praying your read is wrong and the guy is overplaying his set.

Basically you need a 6, T or 5 to hit to feel comfortable. Hopefully none of them a spade. Running trips? I'd still be leery. Youll be stuck to the showdown.

Fold and hope a loose guy snags the pot.

b

[1800GAMBLER]

Hey.

[ QUOTE ]
you're implied odds are KILLED!

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to look at every decision at a time. If you look back over the whole of preflop, then yes, you're implied odds suck, all you're implied odds are on 2bbs and there's utterly no way this hand will show a profit over the whole hand if you ran postflop 1000 times after it's capped preflop. However, when you are calling the the cap your decision should be made on your implied odds being on 2SBs, meaning you're implied odds aren't that bad, the fact that you have two people in with big hands also adds up to some nice postflop bets.

If you want to look at this one hand in a fundmental theory of poker way, the reason this call is correct now (preflop cap) is because of all the dead money you have just incorrectly put in the pot and the money from your blind. If you look at it a long run your first call was correct because of the small percentage of the time it will get capped. The interesting part being if you _knew_ before you called the first bet that it would be capped you should have folded. These decisions are more important in NL when you are going to 're-open the betting' as you have to put more thought it to what could happen after you make that play. Hence the reason when players watch 25/50 UB NL they are confused by all the just calling.

Anyhow, i'm still in the folding anywhere is silly camp. If you are against a better made hand you are 20:1 to make a better hand. Note though, if i wasn't closing the action i would fold the flop.

[skp]

I'll assume it's a 10-20 game to make it easy to count the pot.

Hero's turn to act: pot size is $320

Some other assumptions:

1. It will cost hero an investment of at least $30 to try and win the pot ((it could be more if there are turn raises he has to face but I'll ignore those to keep things simple).

2. If hero wins the pot, he will get the $320 that is in the pot before his flop move and probably another $80 strange on turn and river action. I'll even stipulate that it will be $100.

3. So, hero is essentially looking at a $30 investment to try and win $420. 14: 1 effective odds.

Is hero worse than a 14:1 dog with his weak draw?

I think he is.

(a) he is about 25:1 against to make a straight (and not all of these will be winning hands as he could lose to AK, a flush etc). So, his draw does carry with it some reverse implied odds.

(b) He could catch runner/runner trips or two pairs (which is probably a winning hand) but the chances of that happening are of course extremely slim. Those odds can be calculated with relative ease.

(c) he could just catch a 9 or an 8 and have that hold up to be the winning hand but that is somewhat unlikely.

Throw it all into the mix and I don't see a flop call on the horizon. I certainly don't see the flop to be an "easy" call that many of you guys say it is.

This is all stuff that I was just tossing around in my head while on the treadmill just now. No detailed calculations were done. So, it's all "E&O.E."

[anatta]

If you think he should fold 98s in a seven way pot because its 2 more back to him, you really don't understand how to play poker in loose games. This is a good hand, not "cheese", in a seven way pot. Real good. Who cares that its capped. I'll cap it here for the hell of it and lose nothing. Oh no! Capped pot!! I only have 9 high. Boo hoo.

You have a backdoor st8 draw on the flop. You are getting what again...thirysomethin':1...a rainbow flop, I call. What the hell its one more bet. Flush draw out there, I probably fold, but I can't see calling getting these odds as bad if you have any chance at all to win the pot which you do.

[nummerfire]

Arent you forgetting that hero will not continue without a straight draw. So you do not always have to invest $30.

Kim

[ike]

Your calculation of his effective odds is wrong. His flop call does not commit him to an investment of $30, most of the time it will only cost him 10 and those times it costs 30 he will be winning a fairly significant percentage of the hands.

[WhipMeBeatMe]

Folding preflop here would be a serious mistake. This is a GREAT time to have 98s, even out of position because the size of the pot will get you callers even when you bet your completed hand from early position.

Calling the flop here is a mistake, IMO. You have fewer outs than you think. On a 7-way capped flop, it is highly likely that there are two spades out there. It is also highly likely that there is an AK out there. The AK kills several of your possible runner-runner straights. For example, if you get a ten on the turn to give you an open-ended draw, you do NOT want to see a jack on the river.

[Rick Nebiolo]

Michael,

I skimmed the other posts (usually I post an initial response before reading others).

The only real issue is your flop call. I'd fold because two spades are out but it is probably close with such a big pot. If you had a backdoor flush draw (even with two spades out) I'd call and it isn't close. If it was a rainbow board I'd call and I doubt it is close.

Some very good minds have taken a stab at making the calculations and disagree. So it probably is close but the fact is that YOU WILL RARELY BE IN THIS SPOT OR A SIMILAR SPOT. I wouldn't waste a lot of effort here. If you made a mistake, it was a small mistake and you won't often be in position to make it again.

OTOH, there are other backdoor draws that come up more frequently in reasonably sized pots in the good games you play. These include:

- clean backdoor straight on a rainbow, unpaired board
- medium to small backdoor flush on an unpaired board
- combination of a backdoor flush and straight

Here you need some pre-figured out rules of thumb because you will far more often be in these spots. Past threads (and an old Sklansky essay) have discussed common backdoor draws and you may want to research them or start a fresh thread on the topic.

Regards,

Rick

[DcifrThs]

in another post somewhere in the thread i admitted that folding preflop is wrong getting 13:1.

then i did calcs do see if folding the flop was wrong and forgot a major part of the analysis. i was wrong there to. obviously folding the turn is stupid so thats the only place i was right /images/graemlins/blush.gif lol...

folding is silly, 1800 is king /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

-Barron

[Michael Davis]

There are a number of excellent responses in this thread. I really appreciate the time many of you spent in thinking this through, although I'm not sure the end result was a conclusion.

The actual hand was won by an unimproved 66. The other BB did indeed have the AK of spades, so he was eating up all my spade outs and the runner-runner JT out. Another player mucked, so while it's not impossible she had a 9 or 8, it looks as if in the actual hand I had five outs (two non-spade eights and nines and the non-spade six that was left, as 66 had no spade). But, if there was a higher pair out there, this combination of cards would have left me a nightmarish one out.

I don't know what to make of the results. They demonstrate two things: 1) You should consider that you might have a lot less outs than you think, and 2) You might have a lot more outs than you think. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

One consideration that I don't think was brought up was that I often have a payoff hand if I pick up a pair somewhere along the line and I don't have to overcall on the river. It's even possible that I should overcall, but I doubt I would.

-Michael

[skp]

Well, I told you that my analysis was a crude one...heh

Anyway, how's this for some more "crude" approximations:

1. Hero will continue if he catches a 5,6,8,9,10, or J (22 cards). When he gets those cards (which will be 47% of the time), he will call another $20 bet on the turn. When he doesn't, he will fold.

2. When he continues i.e. 47% of the time, he will have anywhere between 3 and 8 outs (on some occasions, he will have been locked out if a spade falls and someone has a flush but unless there is a bet and a raise on the turn, hero will probably see the river card given the size of the pot).

3. No. of potential river card outs for each "good" turn card (while disregarding lockouts):

5 - 3 to 4 outs

6 - 6 to 8 outs

8 - 3 to 5 outs (with some chance that hero now has the best hand but it's probably going to cost him another 420 on the river to find that out but I'll just ignore that for now)

9 - 3 to 5 outs (again, hero might have the best hand now)

10 - 3 to 8 outs

J- 3 to 4 outs

What's a good weighted average? I would say about 4.5 outs.

4. So, out of a 100 trials, we can perhaps say that:

(a) 53 times, Hero loses $10 (-$530)
(b) 42.5 times, hero loses $30 (-$1275)
(c) 4.5 times, hero wins $420 (+1890)

Net gain is +$85 in 100 trials.

If I am wrong on the weighted average of river outs (i.e. say it's 5 outs rather than 4.5), then you have an even easier call. But if the weighted average is only 4 outs, then the flop call is marginally poor.

I still don't know if I analyzed this right but it would appear that the flop decision is a close one in favour of calling.

[Michael Davis]

If the net gain is only +85 in 100 trials, then the times where I hit and lose and pay off multiple bets swings it to a fold, IMO. Also, sometimes I will pick up a legitimate draw on the turn and have to pay multiple bets to see the river.

Of course, then there are the times where I pick up a draw on the turn and catching a pair on the river wins the pot. Or, I catch nothing on the turn but it gets checked around and I pair on the river to win. I'm sure they don't balance each other out, as the first scenario is a lot more likely than the second.

Great calculations.

-Michael

[mike l.]

this post above pretty much sums up how i feel about the hand.

[SevenStuda]

My first thought when I read this thread was, 'Wow, this Michael Davis is a real fish'. But, lucky for you I'm not one to rush to judgement. Upon further analysis of the hand I've decided that you are indeee a huge fish. You're the type of player that I dream of playing against. The type who makes tom-fool plays, yet has the stones to try and defend them. Your flop call is laughable at best, and you fail to mention what happend on the river. Did someone bet that "rag", and did you call due to "pot odds"? Look dude, you really blow and are always welcome to play in any game that I might be in. "Yippee!"

-Dimitri

[skp]

The flop question Michael posted was a very good one. IMO, the correct answer is far from clear. Many in this thread have said that it's an easy call while you say it's a laughable call.

But to write off the initial poster as a fish because he made a play that people here have such divergent opinions about is just nuts.

[Michael Davis]

Just ignore this guy. He and I, as well as numerous other posters, have tangled frequently on this forum due to the fact that he has not once posted something constructive.

And by the way, I sure felt like a real fish while I was calling that flop bet.

-Michael

[Nate tha' Great]

I think you're overestimating the number of clean outs that he has, since he'll sometimes be up against a set, and will sometimes make a straight when someone else makes a flush. That is, you're presenting a best case scenario of sorts here, and just barely get him to par, and if you discount his outs across the board by say 20%, which seems about right ... it's pretty clearly a fold. Another problem is that he won't always get to draw for one BB on the turn.

[DeeJ]

I think you put your finger on the problem with the original post, you are uncomfortable going into the flop capped with 98 suited. I wonder how often the hand wins against capped flops and reasonable players...

You are right, you don't know your true outs. The flush was a danger as was a higher pair.

I guess you have to use 'judgement' and 'reads' /images/graemlins/smile.gif