Is this hand worth calling down ?

[T0asty]

I suspect I got married to this one . . .

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, MP folds, CO folds, Button calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, Button calls.

Flop: (8 SB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, Button calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Button folds, Hero calls.

River: (9.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.50 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 11.50 BB, between Hero and UTG.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by UTG (11.50 BB).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero shows Ad Kh (two pair, aces and kings).
UTG shows Js Kd (straight, ace high).
Outcome: UTG wins 11.50 BB. </font>

[Zele]

Check-call the turn and bet out on the river. Whether or not to fold to a raise depends on the opponent, but usually call.

[fyodor]

Zele's line looks good to me.

Once you have already bet the turn and called his raise, you may as well call the river as well. Especially since you improved and can now beat all his 2 pair hands. If you think you're getting beat by a straight or flush (and you usually are) and are contemplating laying down on the river, why did you call the turn raise?

[DaveB]

I would play it this same way.

[naphand]

I think you played it fine, the 3rd flush card could easily scare your opponent with a straight. You cannot seriously consider folding the Turn? /images/graemlins/blush.gif You have outs to the nut straight (a J) and the nut flush (any /images/graemlins/heart.gif), plus a strong hand already. With more than one opponent I would seriously consider 3-betting the Turn (with 10-13 outs).

Check/calling the Turn looks weak-tight.

[T0asty]

man, my aggressiveness is really struggling it seems any time i try to be aggressive in a dodgy sit I get my pants pulled down /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I'm fighting weak play but i get punished for it when i don't (In sits like this that is)

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
I would seriously consider 3-betting the Turn (with 10-13 outs).


[/ QUOTE ]
This is way to optimistic IMO. When somebody already has a flush you only have 7 outs...

I think his line or Zele's line are fine.

Guido

[naphand]

[ QUOTE ]
This is way to optimistic IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hardly. First of all you are assuming that the flush is out there and the J. If no flush is out you have 9 outs to win and probably 3 outs to split with a J (given he has a straight). If the flush is out you still have 7 outs to the best flush, but that is the worst-case scenario.

You may have missed my point about being against 2 players. I might raise against 2 opponents, but not one, though it is marginal. If I am against a straight, with 3 flush cards out, my raise may be enough to get a free SD when I miss and extra bets when I hit. With a 2nd-player in, even with a split pot, there is the possibility of extracting further revenue from the non-split player.

[Guido]

I understand what you are saying but you were talking about 10-13 outs. And that is to optimistic. It's true that 7 outs is a worst case scenario but that was to make clear that 10-13 outs is too optimistic. I think the range should be 7-13 outs. That would make an average of about 10 in which case 3-betting is wrong I think.

Guido

[naphand]

No, I still don't agree that 3-betting the Turn is obviously wrong. You can buy a free showdown here, if it is capped you still have outs. This is Party $1/$2, the raise on the Turn could be a lot of things (QTo for example), the flush being only one, and anyone with less than a Q or J high flush is probably not capping, and probably checks behind on the River too (certainly, with the straight).

I think his line was fine here, but if Button calls the Turn I am strongly tempted to put in another bet, I may or I may not. Against 2 players with 10 outs or more (7 of which are to the nuts), I am considering a raise here, depending on whether I feel I can get a free SD (position is not good, of course) and my reads (esp. if UTG was easily slapped about).

[ctv1116]

You certainly call down the turn; you've got the nut flush draw. It would be way too big of a laydown to fold on the river; there are some really, really wacky plays at 1/2, the pot is too big to fold.

[Guido]

I don't say 3-betting is obviously wrong, I only wanted to make clear that 10-13 is too optimistic. You only look at the best case scenario's but don't seem to look at the worst case scenario's. I don't think it's that unlikely that UTG or the button (when he calls) has a flush or a J. When the button calls, I think these possibilities are very likely. You have between 6-16 outs. So on average you have 11 outs and I don't think it's more likely you have 12 or 13 outs than 9 or 10 outs when UTG raises and the button cold calls. When you 3-bet in the SB and they both call and you don't improve on the river then there is close to no way that you get a free showdown. Your read must be very good.

At best you have about 16 outs your odds are 1.9:1 to hit on the river. Even than it's barely correct to 3-bet. Do you think you still have the best hand? Do you think they will fold? Your odds are just good enough with 16 outs to make a 3-bet correct. What is wrong with my reasoning?

Guido

[Saborion]

I'm not sh player, but I'd bet this turn often in the ring games I play in. We don't fear another heart, but why risk giving a free card to someone holding a J, or to someone that might improve to two pair?

[fyodor]

I don't think I could have read this board correctly first time I looked. I'm with Nap on this. IF the other guy calls so that there are 2 opponents then I raise the turn. That's a huge draw. Already have TPTK with draws to nut flush and nut straight. I posted one last week where I did just that.

With just the one opponent I am calling down for sure. No way in the world you can fold on the turn.

[naphand]

[ QUOTE ]
You only look at the best case scenario's but don't seem to look at the worst case scenario's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Somewhat unfair, esp. as the "best case" is 16 outs.

I also believe that you can almost ignore the "worst case" scenario at Party $1/$2, for the simple reason that they will almost never punish you enough when you do meet it.

If you are calling the River anyway, then a 3-bet that buys a free showdown MUST be correct, irrespective of pot odds.

It is preferable to have better position for the 3-bet but, I am certainly not worried by the Button calling along. Party $1/$2 callers have any draw or any part of the flop. They are flush-obsessives; a call from Button when the 3rd suit hits means almost any /images/graemlins/heart.gif and hero has the best /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

I think the 3-bet should be considered where there is likely multiple callers and a chance of a free showdown. I don't agree that check/call the Turn is right, you are just giving any J or hands like KQ the chance to take a free card.

What percentage of the time do you estimate you are against a flush here?

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
Somewhat unfair, esp. as the "best case" is 16 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
True, again I only wanted to make clear that you seem a little too optimistic. You make it look like there is a very small chance that somebody has a flush and/or a jack when you are up against 2 opponents.

I don't think you will get a free showdown even 10% of the time because you don't have position. When you have I like your 3-bet a lot more.

The fact that the button cold calls only makes it more likely you have less outs. That was what I'm trying to make clear. You say it yourself when you think he has a /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

I don't like check-calling that much either on the turn. I would bet out and call a raise.

I don't think you should only look at the chance one of them has a flush but also at the chance one of them has a jack. I think when UTG raises I think he has a flush about 20% of the time, a jack about 40% of the time, two pair about 20% of the time and a semi-bluff about 20% of the time. When you include the button cold calling I think the chance that you are behind is even higher and you have less outs.

Why do you think 3-betting is right when you have only 10-13 outs against 2 opponents? Do you think you are still in front? How often do you think you get a free card after 3-betting against 2 opponents out of position?

Thanks,

Guido

[naphand]

I see no problem with being an optimist.... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I do not think I am being too optimistic to think it is unlikely someone else has a flush. There are lots of possibilities with this board, and I have a draw to the best flush even if there is. The same logic would mean you clam up when the board flops 3-suited and someone puts in a raise.

I'm not worried about a J on the Turn, I'm only worried about KJ; that's a lot less hands than any single J. By the River, any J wins of course (barring the flush).

Button cold-calling. Party $1/$2. Nuff sed.

Button is too passive to bet the River with a 3-bet Turn unless he has a good /images/graemlins/heart.gif, it's 4-suited and checked to him, which is not going to happen, which means I only need to stop UTG. I think it is nearer 20-30% for a free showdown. Party $1/$2.

Why should I 3-bet? This is Party $1/$2, when I have a good hand or a big draw, I push them around.

I agree, I would prefer better position, but I still give 3-betting this serious consideration. The outcome would depend a lot on my read of each player. Here, I felt a 3-bet was a real option, but had I been playing the table I may not have done so.

The math of it, let's see...
On the Turn the pot is 5.5 BB, I add 1, UTG adds 2, and if Button calls that's another 2 for a pot of 10.5 BB to me. With an average of 10 outs I am 3.6:1 to hit on the River, I am getting 10.5:1 from the pot to call 1 bet, and 5.25:1 to put in 2 bets PLUS I pick up another 2 BB this round and another 2 if I hit on the River. I think I would call 2 cold here, so I like to raise and pick up the extra bets when I hit or get a free SD some of the time. If the flush is out it may get capped and I can easily call with my nut-flush draw. If the flush is not out, there is a very reasonable chance of a free SD. Party $1/$2, when they get scared, they stay scared (unless they improve, and a lot of the improving here is splitting the pot or giving me the nut-flush).

I think a lot of SH play does involve odds, but equally a lot of it dances around the margins of what seems right based on odds. A lot of plays could be questionable from a purely odds-perspective. Part of this is due to the speed of the action, making it necessary to make quick judgements, but also to do with pushing an aggressive image. Here, with a huge draw, I think it's a good time to get stroppy. It feels the right thing to do.

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
I see no problem with being an optimist....

[/ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

I've never played 1/2 6-max so I don't know how that is. Would you call at 5/10?

I think we agree in general, just some specific assumtions that make the difference between 3-betting and calling.

Thanks for the good debate,

Guido

[naphand]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you call at 5/10?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ask one of the $5/$10 regulars... /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

I think less likely to; at $1/$2 the players do not know how to take advantage of position. At $5/$10, with the increased aggression and my poor position, I probably just call. To the left of UTG, I probably raise.

This hand though, is the kind of hand that I feel much more comfortable throwing in (apparently) unwarranted raises, partly because I have a big draw and partly because my opponent could very well be betting a hand they are afraid is 2nd-best.