First post: Odd hand with 99

[tacoshooter]

Long time lurker -- finally have a hand I think worthy of discussion.

BB is loose and sometimes aggressive postflop. Table is typical passive Party .50/1 with only rare preflop raises. Have seen a couple of players limp with AK and AQ prior to this. I'm pretty much the only one raising consistently and getting a little too much respect.

Who folds to the three-bet on the flop? What about the bet on the turn?

I think in this instance the three-bet on the flop is what kept me in the hand against this particular player.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Tacoshooter is UTG with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Tacoshooter calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB checks.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Tacoshooter raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, <font color="CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Tacoshooter calls, MP3 folds.

Turn: (6.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, Tacoshooter calls.

River: (8.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Tacoshooter bets</font>, BB calls.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 10.75 BB, between BB and Tacoshooter.</font>

[uuDevil]

I don't think you can fold the flop or the turn. His reraise on the flop may mean he has 2 pr, but you have outs against that hand.

I don't understand the bet on the end, though. He may have checked a small flush and will certainly call if he did. He will probably also call with 2 pr even though he fears you have a spade. So I don't see him folding a better hand than yours. Maybe some hands worse than yours would call too, but I'd save that last bet.

Edit: I changed my mind. /images/graemlins/blush.gif
Since the pot is not that big, I would consider getting out on the turn with all the straight, flush, and bigger pair possibilities....

[secada]

I'd say you lost to a baby flush who got scared by the 4th spade.

I have seen typical loose party players 3-bet the flop in this situation.

IMO, save the bet on the end.

-secada

[citizenkn]

I'll put in a vote for raising pre-flop. Other than that, I think you played fine, altough checking through on the river would probably be a better play. He is unlikely to call with a hand worse than yours, so I would save that last bet.

[Brian]

Hi tacoshooter,

I'd raise pre-Flop. Don't give them a cheap Flop with their suited crap which they'll be as happy to call 2 bets with as 1. The Flop and Turn are fine, but I'd take the free showdown on the River.

-Brian

[EDIT]: Missed the part where you said he was a LAG post-Flop. Nice River bet, you have more stones than I would even against a LAG, but it's correct. Welcome to the forums.

[sublime]

I'm pretty much the only one raising consistently and getting a little too much respect.

Which of course makes the limp/raise decision a rather easy one /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I would not fold this flop, I would be more inclined to think two pair here instead of a set. Once it becomes HU I would also call the turn and check behind on the river.

[sublime]

[EDIT]: Missed the part where you said he was a LAG post-Flop. Nice River bet, you have more stones than I would even against a LAG, but it's correct. Welcome to the forums.

Hey Brian-

I think you were right the first time, I think LAG checked the river due to the appearance of a four flush more than anything.

[Brian]

[ QUOTE ]
I think LAG checked the river due to the appearance of a four flush more than anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which means he definitely doesn't have a Flush. And what other hands is the Hero scared of? Are you putting the LAG on two pair or a set just because he 3-bet the Flop? He's a LAG. I'm sure he'd do this with many hands that the Hero beat then, and is still ahead of now.

-Brian

[sublime]

Which means he definitely doesn't have a Flush. And what other hands is the Hero scared of? Are you putting the LAG on two pair or a set just because he 3-bet the Flop? He's a LAG. I'm sure he'd do this with many hands that the Hero beat then, and is still ahead of now.

Hero;s post said villian is "sometimes aggressive post flop" his check on the river does not mean he doesnt have a flush, it means he now holds a vulnerable hand

i would be happy with a free showdown here.

[Brian]

I take "loose and sometimes aggressive" to mean a LAG player. If this is an incorrect assessment, then Hero let me know. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Most LAGs will bet the River with any Flush, so his checking to me means that he doesn't have a Flush. If sometimes he does in fact have a low Flush and got scared on the River, then so be it. I think that the Hero will be called by a worse hand here more than 55% of the time. I would expect to often be shown a hand like 96 or A5 or etc.

-Brian

[tacoshooter]

Great discussion so far guys, thanks! Here's some of my thinking on the hand. Hopefully y'all can point out where I'm way off-base.

Preflop: 99 is usually my cutoff for limping/raising in EP, especially UTG. I might raise 20% of the time at a limpy table; I figure in most situations I'm going to need a lot of low cards or a set to make it pay off. Is this a mistake?

Flop: When the LAGish BB bets out, I figure they caught a piece of a pretty trash-friendly flop. I decide to raise with the overpair and hopefully fold out the other preflop limpers. When the BB three-bets I throw two pair as a possibility into the equation but I still haven't totally discounted any piece.

If the player was typically passive and I had never seen them three-bet, I might very well have folded to the re-raise considering the small pot -- or called the raise and folded to the turn bet without improvement. Thoughts?

Turn: The K/images/graemlins/spade.gif brings the flush but it didn't change much in the line I was taking. Perhaps this is the wrong read at the typical Party games (I've only got around 1k hands in there) but I didn't think a flop three-bet on a flush draw in these situations would be very common.

I thought about raising to represent the made flush but called. Is this a loose call in this situation? Nine times out of ten I probably fold but this was sort of a read-dependent thing based on what I'd seen at the table.

MP3 folding on the flop changed things also. With MP3 to act behind I would have tended more toward folding.

River: Okay, the 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif makes things interesting. The check seems to mean BB doesn't like that card too much. I bet out -- because I sensed the weakness and also had been showing down nothing but good cards all session. Thought BB might fear the higher flush and fold a baby or the two pair which beat me.

Figured there was maybe a 15% chance I was ahead and a 15% chance I could get BB to fold so it seemed like the factors added up to betting the river.

This is probably bad thinking in most circumstances as I doubt people will fold a baby flush very often at this level. I wouldn't in the reverse situation unless I had a very strong read and/or some Pokertracker info. I suppose I would fold against me though. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Obviously I got called and expected to lose but saw an A/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif and MHIG.

A lot of the reason I posted this hand is it is a pretty atypical hand for me. Generally I'm looking for an excuse to get out of this hand against the typical passive player because of the three-bet on the flop.

Like I said in the first post however, it was the three-bet that kept me in with this instance because it made a drawing hand seem less likely. That was the primary factor that kept me in. Well, that and my LAG read.

Whew. That's a lot of post. Am I way off base anywhere?

[sublime]

Figured there was maybe a 15% chance I was ahead and a 15% chance I could get BB to fold so it seemed like the factors added up to betting the river

There is a 100% chance that I cant think like this when I need to /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I think calling down to the river is fine in this spot, like it was stated above the debate seems to be on the river bet and I will defer to Brian who has more experiance/knowledge than I.

Nice bet on the river, Brian points out that 55% of the time you will have a better hand here and hes probably right. I am just a river wuss /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Nice hand, nice thought process and nice posting name /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Brian]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: 99 is usually my cutoff for limping/raising in EP, especially UTG. I might raise 20% of the time at a limpy table; I figure in most situations I'm going to need a lot of low cards or a set to make it pay off. Is this a mistake?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. If you have only 1 cold-caller, then just about any Flop is nice for 99. If the pot is 3-4 way, then any Flop with only 1 overcard is generally a good Flop. If its 5-way+, then yes, you'll generally need a 9 or low cards to win. But you'll win far more than your fair share of pots with 99, so not raising it is /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: The K /images/graemlins/spade.gif...Is this a loose call in this situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. You're heads-up with a LAG and have a pair. A pretty good one at that. Theres no way I am folding at any point in this hand.

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously I got called and expected to lose but saw an A /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and MHIG.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should expect to win more than your fair share of showdowns in this situation IMO. You're not betting the River as a bluff: he's NOT going to fold a better hand. But he'll call with many worse ones.

[ QUOTE ]
Whew. That's a lot of post. Am I way off base anywhere?

[/ QUOTE ]

A little. From reading your post, you are expecting the worst too often. Remember, you didn't raise pre-Flop, so your opponents have absolutely no idea how strong your hand is on this Flop. Therefore, you will have to expect and take a little more heat post-Flop.

-Brian

[tech]

Hey Taco, I disagree with most everyone about the river bet. It's not a value bet here -- it's more of a semi-bluff. You are really hoping he folds, although there is a small chance you have the best hand.

I think it is correct, and in fact it is almost mandatory there. Clarkmeister has a theory that you should pretty much always bet when you are heads-up and a four-flush hits.

In this case, I think you are probably behind in the hand, but the percentage of times that your opponent will fold the best hand here tips the scales in favor of a bet, IMO.

[HajiShirazu]

If you really have a value bet on the river (and I'm not saying that you don't) then why didn't you cap the flop?

[Brian]

Hi tech,

[ QUOTE ]
Clarkmeister has a theory that you should pretty much always bet when you are heads-up and a four-flush hits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clarkmeister's theorm of always betting the River when the 4-Flush hits and you're heads-up applies only when you are first to act.

I don't think that theres any chance you will get a better hand than yours to fold. However, I think that you will frequently, %55 of the time or more, get called by a worse hand.

-Brian

[Brian]

Hi Haji,

I meant to include this in my other post but figured it was long-winded enough. The reason I wouldn't cap the Flop if I were Hero is that I'd be planning on raising the Turn if a non-Spade hit. Not that I necessarily put him on only a Flush draw on the Flop, but I tend not to raise on 3-Flush boards heads-up very often if I don't have the Flush or better.

-Brian

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think that theres any chance you will get a better hand than yours to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Brian, I agree about worse hands calling, but I disagree with the statement above. I can't even begin to count the pots I have stolen in spots like this. I almost never bluff at low-limits, but one of the few times I will is when a four-flush hits (either first to act or checked to). Weak players assume that someone has the flush.