Blackjack Betting Strategy

[Eazygoer]

What is a suitable betting strategy for someone playing basic stratgy? By that I mean what would be the logical progression on increasing bets while on a winning streak? How many units would you drop to after a loss? etc etc
Thanks

[cardcounter0]

If you are playing basic strategy, then the correct bet amount is $0, since you are at a disadvantage.

If you must play without an advantage, then bet the smallest unit possible.

Since the actual winning/losing of a previous hand, has no effect on the likelyhood of winning/losing the next hand, their isn't a "logical" increase/decrease in the next bet amount.

[TomCollins]

Double your bet every time you lose. It can't go wrong1

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
By that I mean what would be the logical progression on increasing bets while on a winning streak? How many units would you drop to after a loss?

[/ QUOTE ]


you are showing a gross misunderstanding of probabilitiy.
this is a common gambler's fallacy....that 'riding a win streak' is a way to beat the game.
you can NOT beat the game just by 'riding a win-streak' or 'decreasing your bets when the shoe goes cold' or any other garbage like that.

BJ is a game that CAN be beaten.....but it requires other methods such as counting cards. if you can count +1 and -1 you can count-cards....it's really pretty freaking easy.

your ideas hint at some sort of betting-progression plan when winning or losing.
if you take one of these types of plans to the tables the casinos well welcome you as a customer because they know you are a losing player.

[Eazygoer]

Perhaps I asked the wrong question. I guess I am looking more for help on money management during a play session. Do you flat bet the entire time? I know when counting there are times when the shoe is more advantageous how exactly do you press your advantage. In Talking Blackjack DS also points out varing your bet size alone when the deck is positive will almost accomplish the same results as strategy changes due to the count. What would be a typical bet spead? I realize that this is more art than science.

Thanks

[Lost Wages]

I know when counting there are times when the shoe is more advantageous how exactly do you press your advantage.

Yes, if you are counting then you bet more when the deck is favorable and the minimum when it is unfavorable. If you are not counting then you don't know when the deck is favorable so the mathematically best strategy is to make flat minimum bets. There is almost zero correlation between winning the last hand and the deck being favorable.

varing your bet size alone when the deck is positive will almost accomplish the same results as strategy changes due to the count.

Correct, strategy variations based on count add very little. Betting variations are much more important. Also important is the game you choose; number of decks (less = better) and house rules. It is very easy to learn a simple count and very your bets in relation to the count while playing basic strategy. Learning the strategy variations is much more difficult.

What would be a typical bet spead?

For single and double deck at least a 4:1 spread. For shoe games 8:1. These are minimums to have any chance of a long term positive expectation. Ideally, your spread should be as large as you can get away with provided you have the bankroll.

Lost Wages

[Sully]

[ QUOTE ]
Since the actual winning/losing of a previous hand, has no effect on the likelyhood of winning/losing the next hand, their isn't a "logical" increase/decrease in the next bet amount.

[/ QUOTE ]

For a guy named "cardcounter", you sure do underestimate the value of counting cards.

[cardcounter0]

No, I wouldn't play a single hand without knowing the count.

If you get T,T and the dealer has T,9 - you win.
If you get T,9 and the dealer has T,T - you lose.

In each case the running count has gone down, meaning it is less favorable that you are going to win the next hand. And yet you won in one case and lost in the other. Any system based on placeing your next bet on the win/loss results of your last hand is going to be flawed.

In fact, the count has to be pretty extreme positive or negative before the actual percentage of win/loss of hands changes.

[eyekast]

there's alot of things to take into consideration like how many decks, hit or stand on s17, das, and so on a basic rule of thumb ''BASIC'' is for every plus count your advantage increases by .5% so if you were playing at a game were the house starts with a +.5% advantage then you would need a true count of 1 just to be even. a good book is profesional blackjack by stanford wong.

[daryn]

wow, cardcounter comes through with a sensible post!

kudos!

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Since the actual winning/losing of a previous hand, has no effect on the likelyhood of winning/losing the next hand, their isn't a "logical" increase/decrease in the next bet amount.


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For a guy named "cardcounter", you sure do underestimate the value of counting cards

[/ QUOTE ]


except for misusing the word 'their' his post is entirely accurate.
the RESULT of the previous hand do NOT effect the amount you bet on the next hand.
the specific cards that you have seen removed from the deck or shoe have a huge effect on how much you should bet.


you can lose 15 hands in a row and be in a situation where you want to push your bet as high as you can get away with.
you can lose 15 hands in a row and be in a situation where you want to be the minimum.

if you've seen a ton of aces and faces come out you want to bet small....if you've seen a bunch of little cards come out you want to bet big. it doesn't matter whether you won or lost on those hands.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps I asked the wrong question. I guess I am looking more for help on money management during a play session.

[/ QUOTE ]


no...you asked the question fine....and i think i (and others) have answered it fine.
you should ignore all concepts of 'money-management' that you may have been fed.
for the purposes of what it seems you are after they are not helpful.

you can not help your win-rate or decrease your loss-rate by playing JUST basic-strategy and varying your bet-size. you will lose no matter what.
if you vary your bet size then you will lose faster because this means you are NOT betting the minimum on each hand.

if playing only basic strategy...the only way to decrease your loss rate is to bet the minimum (or not play). the more you bet, the more you lose....because you are at a disadvantage for each and every hand (since you aren't counting and don't know when the deck/shoe is advantageous).

with proper basic strategy you are at about a 1% disadvantage on each hand (roughly...for arguments' sake lets not get nitpicky).
so on each hand....just imagine that each bet has a 1% disadvantage. if you bet $10 then your disadvantage is $0.10. if you bet $20 then the disadvantage is $0.20. if you bet $50 then your disadvantage is $0.50.
it doesn't matter whether you won or lost the previous hand. you still have a disadvantage (again...assuming you aren't counting).


[ QUOTE ]
In Talking Blackjack DS also points out varing your bet size alone when the deck is positive will almost accomplish the same results as strategy changes due to the count.

[/ QUOTE ]


i think you misunderstood what DS was saying here.
you need to vary your bet-sizes WITH the count. that's why he said WHEN THE DECK IS POSITIVE.


to explain: when counting-cards you are not only varying your bet-size but also your playing decisions.
there are various charts of how to change your strategy to maximize your EV. for example, if the count is positive you will want to stand on 16 v. 10. if the count is +2 you should stand on 15 v 10. if the count is -1 you should hit your 12 vs. 4. etc etc.
there are a lot of tables to be memorized.

DS is merely pointing out that if you just varied your bet-size with the count....you could pretty much just play 'normally' and would not be losing much EV. that is, the differences in some of the playing decisions are not nearly as important as getting the money out there when the count is favorable.

basically, if you are so lazy that you don't feel like learning all the different playing decisions you could just play basic-strategy for playing decisions and just raise your bet when the count is positive.

he did not mean to say that you can just win by varying your bet-size.....he was already assuming you were varying your bet-size WITH the count.

btw....what DS is saying here is hardly an original idea. this has been pointed out in several BJ books.
but most of the time they recommend learning the playing decisions because if you are going to go through all the effort of playing BJ you might as well make the extra effort to learn how to do it properly.