Fold KK pre-flop?

[Irishboy]

Party 100 + 9 tourney

Blinds are 25/50 and I have the second biggest stack.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="C00000">BB (t1695)</font>
<font color="C00000">Irishboy (t1840)</font>
MP1 (t2635)
<font color="C00000">MP2 (t1150)</font>
CO (t825)
Button (t975)
<font color="C00000">SB (t880)</font>

Preflop: Irishboy is UTG with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="CC3333">Irishboy raises to t150</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises to t1150 (All-In)</font>CO folds, Button folds, SB calls t855 (All-In), <font color="CC3333">, BB raises to t1695 (All-In)</font>

I show strength UTG and 3 all-in's follow. Is this a situation where you fold KK preflop?

BB is the biggest concern. He is a tight player who plays well.

What do you put him on?

What do you do? Results to follow

[stupidsucker]

When I first read the subject, I thought the same thing I always think....

You just dont fold KK preflop....

BUT

I feel this is a good lay down, and maybe I will get jumped all over for saying it, but if BB is really a strong player and he goes all in behind 2 other all ins, you have a good reason to fold. Even if you are up against QQ JJ and TT(or sub AK here), its still 6(7) outs to hurt you badly. Not to mention someone else might have KK and this gives you no outs for a set.

I think I would fold this... Its still early and this looks gruesome to me.

[threeonefour]

I should preface my comments by saying I haven't done any hard math on this scenario.

If you fold. there is a decent chance 2 players get knocked out. At least a couple of guys are going to get knocked out or lose basically all their chips. Two of the other players not involved in the hand have relatively short stacks.

So, if you fold you have a very decent chance of landing in the money. If you call, and win we can say for the sake of argument that you are guaranteed 1st place.

In the end, I would tend to go with the fold since there is probably AK and two pocket pairs at the very best. I would honestly be surprised that there wasn't an AA out there, in which case you know you are in horrible shape.

I would only call if I somehow thought I couldn't reasonably make the money otherwise.

[Jurollo]

I go for it, and if you are up against AA tip your hat. Chances are the 3 all-ins have at LEAST 2 of the A's tied up with AK or AQ so there goes some of the outs that can beat you. Could be flawed logic, but just my thinking.

[Dooner]

Ahhh, this is one of the few moments in Poker that can have you pulling your hair out. Having KK preflop, is an extremely strong position. The only hand that can beat you before the flop is AA.

The odds of being dealt AA (or KK for that matter) preflop are 220 to 1. The odds of being dealt AKs are 331 to 1. So, if you go by outright odds, the odds are in your favor that you have the best hand. They could both have an Ace and a decent kicker. But it still is a tough decision when you are facing two all-ins.

So next, after looking at the odds, I would look at the players and think back to how they have been playing. Are they aggresive? Have they defended their blinds throughout the tournament? Do they play mediocre hands ever? Have they been caught trying to steal? Are they low enough that gambling now is a good move on their part?

Finally, you have to take into account the online factor. This is what I call the miracle flops that only seem to happen online. If you have a played a lot of online poker, then you will know what I mean. With all that said, it would take a lot for me to fold KK, preflop. Sometimes you just have to gamble, and having the second best hand possible, I would say push your chips in and go for the gold.

/images/graemlins/cool.gif

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Finally, you have to take into account the online factor. This is what I call the miracle flops that only seem to happen online. If you have a played a lot of online poker, then you will know what I mean.

[/ QUOTE ]

Miracle flops happen in b&amp;m's too.
No conspiracy theories please.

In regards to the hand:
Ugh, tough one.
BB's bet sure looks likes AA. I can say you should probably lay down, but I can't remember the last time I laid down KK PF. (probably a leak)

regards,
woodguy

[Irishboy]

MP2 had 10, 10
SB was a dumbass who pushed with AQ offsuit
BB also had KK

I ended up calling with my KK.

Flop contained a 10 and MP2 took down a monster pot.

In retrospect this was a good call since I looked to be in real good shape to split a nice sized pot.

I may never see a situation like this again so it's probably not worth spending this much time thinking about it. But I think 90% of the time I will be up against AA in a scenario like this.

Against 1 all-in, easy call.
Against 2 all-ins, still easy call but I'm mad because I know they'll be drawing to more outs.

Against 3 all-ins, one of whom is tight and has a healthy stack AND acted after I raised UTG and two people have pushed.....hmmmm, I don't like my chances at all.

Normally, I would put BB on KK or AA and if I had QQ it's an easy fold. Since I had KK, I didn't even consider the fact that he could have it too.

Thanks for your responses.

[BradleyT]

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Monte carlo simulation results from Poker Calculator 1.1.4.1
Texas Hold'em, 250000 combinations tested.

Hand 1:
Range of hands: AA , KK , QQ , JJ , TT , 99 , AKs, AQs
AJs, KQs, AKo

Hand 2:
Range of hands: AA , KK , QQ , JJ , TT , 99 , 88 , AKs
AQs, AJs, KQs, AKo

Hand 3:
Range of hands: AA , KK , QQ , JJ , AKs

Hand 4:
KsKc

Hand | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
------+--------------+--------------+--------------+--------------+
Win | 18701 | 17947 | 25406 | 32794 |
Draw | 2299 | 1994 | 3273 | 3491 |
Lose | 79000 | 80059 | 71321 | 63715 |
------+--------------+--------------+--------------+--------------+
Win% | 19.76% | 18.85% | 26.95% | 34.45% |
------+--------------+--------------+--------------+--------------+
</pre><hr />

So about 63% of the time you're knocked down to 145 chips and 5 players left. At this point 5,500 chips would virtually locks you into the money however it's not a guarantee for 1st. Maybe someone good at math can tell you what your avg outcome should be with 5,500 chips and 4 players left.

I'm thinking it's close but leaning towards calling. If you could do this play every single SnG you played you'd be ITM 35% of the time and a very high portion would be 1sts.

[holeplug]

I don't think I would/will ever fold KK preflop in a SNG. Theres a good chance the other players are holding each others outs and if one has AA then just start a new SNG. If you win the hand your coasting to aleast ITM here so take the shot.

[stupidsucker]

I guessed right with that possible other KK out there.

You may have been ahead(in a tie), but if I could see those cards I would probably fold the KK anyways, and let the guy with KK take the pot down alone.

I stand by this being a good laydown. I think you were lucky to be up against what you were and you still lost the pot.

Good post though. Almost all of the KK posts are easy calls, this one was worth discussing.

[Dooner]

[ QUOTE ]
Miracle flops happen in b&amp;m's too.
No conspiracy theories please.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is no conspiracy theory. I don't think Big Brother is watching or that aliens have planted mind control devices in every Ace. However, I do believe that I see more action flops online than I do at a brick &amp; mortar clubs. And I'm not saying that anyone or anything is behind this. It might have to do with seeing more flops online than you do at the brick &amp; mortar. Whatever the reason, I stand by my comment and say that you are more likely to run into a hand like this online than you are at a brick &amp; mortar.

I wish I was better at math, I would like to see the odds of 3 players out of 7 being dealt pocket pairs and two of them being pocket Kings. This discussion will definately have me thinking about of few more angles the next time I get pocket Kings. It still is a strong hand and very tough to lay down, but maybe not as tough as before.

/images/graemlins/cool.gif

[BrettK]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Miracle flops happen in b&amp;m's too.
No conspiracy theories please.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is no conspiracy theory. I don't think Big Brother is watching or that aliens have planted mind control devices in every Ace. However, I do believe that I see more action flops online than I do at a brick &amp; mortar clubs. And I'm not saying that anyone or anything is behind this. It might have to do with seeing more flops online than you do at the brick &amp; mortar.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you hit it there. Most people play many many more hands online than they do at a table. It's logical to assume that they are far more likely to notice that there are, for example, ten times as many action flops and bad beats online than to notice that there are ten times as many normal hands.

Brett

[William]

Glad to read that you called, even if you ended up losing your chips.

If you are against AA, so be it, but normally you should thank all the saints in heaven that 3 fishes are willing to go all-in against your KK.

William /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[fyodor]

I muck KK here in a NY minute. You have to figure someone for some kind of an Ace. If not AA then AK or AQ. There's too many players in this pot and it's only going to take one Ace on the flop to bust you.

Let them go to war with each other. I love to sit back and watch.

[William]

[ QUOTE ]
I muck KK here in a NY minute. You have to figure someone for some kind of an Ace. If not AA then AK or AQ. There's too many players in this pot and it's only going to take one Ace on the flop to bust you.

Let them go to war with each other. I love to sit back and watch.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL what nonsense is this. The odds are that you are against a couple of underpairs or/and several aces (which means there are not so many of them left in the deck).

You just sit back and watch while somebody else takes all those chips (and the lead).

William /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[fyodor]

Ok I read all the replies and thought about this some more and I don't think it's even close. Once the BB goes all-in I'm gone every time without even thinking. This is a situation you should already be prepared for. No need for thinking now.

If the BB had mucked it's a completely different story. MP could have gone all-in with a wide range of hands. SB being semi short stacked could also be calling with a lot of hands. But the BB who you admit is good and tight should be the end of the line for your KK.

Anyone advising to just jump into another sit-and-go should instead be advising to just wait for another hand. One will be dealt in about 4 seconds.

[William]

Hmmm, typical weak-passive type.

You got a long way to go dude, good luck!

W.

[stupidsucker]

I disagree William.

And I dont consider myself weak/passive at all.

I certainly see why its an OK call, but I think its also a good fold. The key to me is he says he has a read on the BB as a tight player. This makes me fold. By folding you still have lots of chips, and the field gets narrowed down nicely.

Risk Vs Reward, and I feel the reward (as often as you will get it) is not worth the risk(as often as you will get knocked out/crippled)

[William]

A good read? In this case it means an exact read. The odds are against you.

If he had JJ, even QQ, I could accept the "good read".
In this particular case it is a very bad play to fold.

William

[Desdia72]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Miracle flops happen in b&amp;m's too.
No conspiracy theories please.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is no conspiracy theory. I don't think Big Brother is watching or that aliens have planted mind control devices in every Ace. However, I do believe that I see more action flops online than I do at a brick &amp; mortar clubs. And I'm not saying that anyone or anything is behind this. It might have to do with seeing more flops online than you do at the brick &amp; mortar.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you hit it there. Most people play many many more hands online than they do at a table. It's logical to assume that they are far more likely to notice that there are, for example, ten times as many action flops and bad beats online than to notice that there are ten times as many normal hands.

Brett

[/ QUOTE ]

so true, so true.

[Desdia72]

i don't happen to think the guy is all that solid to be going all-in with 10 10 at this stage. overcard combo hands with Aces, Kings, Queens, and Jacks are dangerous...not including AA-JJ. not discounting the value of 10 10, but this all-in to me is very loose, not solid. he was very fortunate to get that other 10.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
A good read? In this case it means an exact read. The odds are against you.

If he had JJ, even QQ, I could accept the "good read".
In this particular case it is a very bad play to fold.

William

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree that it was a very bad play to fold.

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=391751
pokenum -h tc ts - kc ks - kh kd - ah qd
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Tc 236048 21.74 845833 77.88 4127 0.38 0.218
Ks Kc 22172 2.04 550114 50.65 513722 47.30 0.256
Kd Kh 10192 0.94 562094 51.76 513722 47.30 0.245
Qd Ah 303874 27.98 778007 71.64 4127 0.38 0.281


Depending on the exact suits, he happened to be in about a nuetral EV situation. However, if you can narrow the BB's holdings to exactly AA/KK (which is what I would consider possible holdings for a solid player's all in CALL of two players with a solid UTG raiser still left to act) then it's a pretty easy laydown, really.
The BB would be six times more likely to have AA then KK.
If you think he would call with QQ, then it's close.
6 ways to have QQ, one way to have KK, six ways to have AA. Given the fact that it's not impossible for one of the all ins to also have AA, i think this is still a clear fold.

Trust me, I'm not a person that advocates laying down big hands preflop just because I don't want to take the risk of busting, but I think that this one is an exception.

-SossMan

[Jason Strasser]

I'd like to chime in here and say that I would fold KK 0% of the time here.

William is right, playing scared of a lone ace, or of AA is what will lose you more money in the long run. Players can make moves like this with much less than AA, believe it.

[fyodor]

I think the difference of opinion here is partly due to how you rate yourself against your opponents. At the $10 &amp; $20 Sit'n Go's at Party I am always one of the best 2 players at the table. If I sit out I am almost certainly finishing in the money. This hand could cripple me. I pass.

If I thought I were one of the worst players at the table I would call for sure. That's how bad players win; by getting lucky. A bad player thinks these other guys are going all-in with ATs or other stupid hands because that's what he goes all-in with. KK is unbeatable in his mind.

A good player who recognizes that the BB is also good puts him on AA, KK or QQ. Factor in the other 2 players with anything from AA-88, AK, or AQ. I put your chances at about 30%

By not playing I put my chances of making the money at +80% because I know I'm better than them.

[Jason Strasser]

Are you folding because you think your opponent has AA? Or are u folding scared of a 2 or 3 outer?

[fyodor]

I'm folding because of the combined hands of the 3 other players. Heads up or without that BB, I'm in for sure.

I just think with that many callers you will loose too many times.

[AleoMagus]

Yes, but in this position, I'd be inclined to think they don't have as many outs as you think. With this much action preflop, the aces are bound to be in play and there may be only one in the deck left to beat you.

Otherwise you are left with only smaller pocket pairs to contend with ... and AA.

I agree with the earlier point about opposition. If I know I can outplay my opponents I'm less inclined to call here. With a smaller edge (as you will likely have at higher stakes) a call becomes a better play.

That said, I don't think I'd ever fold in this situation

Regards
Brad S

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you folding because you think your opponent has AA? Or are u folding scared of a 2 or 3 outer?


[/ QUOTE ]

Its a combinationof many factors.

Id guestimate that the BB has KK or AA at least 50% of the time.(this based on a 'read' of him being a tight player, and this read was correct. Not to mention that you are now going into a 4way pot and the other hands are most likely not terrible. Even if the BB has nothing more then QQ at the very best then Id guess 90% of the time that its not AA then you are up against at least 7 outs that can hurt you. My figures are not accurate, just guesses , but its safe to say you will lose this hand over 50% of the time.

The x factor is this.

If you play the passive way and let them duke it out then you are almost guaronteed to lose/cripple down to 5 players. Worst case is SB wins and MP2 takes the sidepot.
I feel that I personally can play well from here on out with whatever chips I have. I could give a care who is the Big stack at this blind level. Its only level 3, and there is lots of time left.

I do not feel that laying this down is playing scared. Its a calculated risk based on how you want to play the rest of the tourney, and I dont think that anyone can convince me that either way is a surefire answer.

To take the other side for a moment...

The only real threat here is the BB.. MP2 can only knock you down to 690 chips which is enough to play fine with the Blinds at only 50.AND if you lose to MP and dont split with the BB then you have collected an additional 545 chips to your 690 giving you T1235. No one has brought this point up yet that I see.(nope I just skimed the thread)

After arguing with myself I am now sideing with calling as well, but I sure like to weigh my options in a thread because you dont get this chance in a game. Its good to be objective and seek out the truth. This makes me a better player each day.

Once again thanks for the great post.

[PrayingMantis]

Intuitively, I'm calling here. There's too much of a chance you're folding the best hand PF, with great pot-odds. You are only scared of AA at this point, of course, and making a decision in an SNG, based on the assumption that somebody, even someone you read as a "solid" player, must hold, or probably, holds, AA, looks to me like playing scared. I've seen too many questionable moves, by opponents I had a great respect to (for example: pushing here, as BB, with JJ, or AQ. It is very very difficult for an on-line SNG player to fold such hands, even when faced with 2 all-in's).

Also, there's probably at least one A at the hands of MP2 and SB, which reduces the chance of AA in the hands of BB.

However, if you are ABSOLUTELY sure BB will fold everything but AA-QQ, then folding looks better than calling. That's because you'll lose more if he holds AA, than you'll win when he holds QQ, assuming there's an ace at someone else's hands (although if it's more than one ace, i.e, a combination of AK and AQ for instance, your odds are much improved, of course, in case BB holds QQ, so the equation changes).

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
but its safe to say you will lose this hand over 50% of the time.



[/ QUOTE ]

Even if you lose this hand 60% of the time, it's an auto call. Actually, only around 70%, in terms of losing, it becomes a -CEV spot. 65% and up is marginal, if you take in other considerations, but still a call, IMO.

[William]

You can't run the figures at twodimes and then say "I am right".

If I knew what my opponents had everytime and could run twodimes, I would be a millionaire in no time.
This is a preflop situation and you must make a qualified guess.

This is s very common mistake in this forum, arguing with the help of twodimes AFTER you know what tour opponent holds.
Makes absolutely no sense and you are only deceiving yourself.

William

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
This is s very common mistake in this forum, arguing with the help of twodimes AFTER you know what tour opponent holds.


[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree. This is not a hand for which using twodimes is much relevant, IMO. The question here is what is the probablity BB (or any other player) holds AA. That's all. And MOST of the time you're holding the best hand PF.

Generally, for folding KK PF in such situation you should have a GREAT read, and A LOT at risk. I don't find these two criteria here, as they are very rare in most of SNG situations.

[fyodor]

Given that so many posters think it is a bad idea to fold this I had to reconsider my stand. Perhaps it is closer than I originally thought.

But coincidentally last night I was reading 'Championship Tournament Practice Hands' by Tom McEvoy and T.J.Cloutier
In the No Limit section, pg 120:

"Any time the flop is raised and reraised before it gets to you in a tournament, I suggest that you dump your two kings. Even if you are wrong once in a while, you will save a lot of money in the long run."

Maybe they are just as 'weak tight' as me. I like their tournament results though.

[BradleyT]

They are referring to a much higher caliber of player than the average $100 SnG player.

If I'm at a table with daniel negraneu and phil helmuth and annie duke and two of them are all in before it gets back to me, yes I'll fold my kings. Against the average SnG monkey I'm not folding.

Also in tournament poker the amount you win goes up drastically more than what it does in a SnG. Moving up 10 spots in a tourney can net you $20,000 (on $215 party - from 13th to 3rd...millions if we're talking WSOP final event). Moving up 10 spots in a $100 SnG is only worth $500.

Totally different scenarios here so I don't think you can apply what they say to SnGs because the dynamics of the payouts are so much different and the caliber of player is also so much different.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
"Any time the flop is raised and reraised before it gets to you in a tournament, I suggest that you dump your two kings. Even if you are wrong once in a while, you will save a lot of money in the long run."

Maybe they are just as 'weak tight' as me. I like their tournament results though.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's talking post-flop! ("the flop is raised"). and anyways, most of the advice you'll find in poker tournament books is pretty much irrelevant for online SNGs. The books are mostly about big, live, deep money, multi-tables tournies.

You have to think online SNGs, and here you have to think PF. If you are folding KK PF in an SNG everytime you are faced with a raise and a reraise you are crazy, and even if you're folding it only after 2 players went all-in, you are still making a very big -EV move, in most situations.

[slogger]

[ QUOTE ]
Finally, you have to take into account the online factor. This is what I call the miracle flops that only seem to happen online. If you have a played a lot of online poker, then you will know what I mean.

[/ QUOTE ]

Listen dude, just want to let you know that you're not going to get much respect around here with the "online is rigged" analysis. And I mention it here not only because lack of complete randomness could be easily be proven (and would have been by some of the more mathematically oriented posters on this forum if it was an issue), but also because whether the cards are rigged should have no bearing on the decision to fold KK in the situation described.

[fyodor]

/images/graemlins/blush.gif oops

no more from me on this subject till I get the foot out of my mouth

[slogger]

[ QUOTE ]
I wish I was better at math, I would like to see the odds of 3 players out of 7 being dealt pocket pairs and two of them being pocket Kings.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYI: At a live tournament at the Tropicana in AC on Saturday, I witnessed a hand where 4 players got all-in preflop. The hands?

AA, KK, QQ and JJ. Find a calculator or a mathematician and let me know what the odds of that are. /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
FYI: At a live tournament at the Tropicana in AC on Saturday, I witnessed a hand where 4 players got all-in preflop. The hands?

AA, KK, QQ and JJ. Find a calculator or a mathematician and let me know what the odds of that are.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty close to it just rough calc though

1 in 24.5 that one of 9 has AA
1 in 25.5 that one in 8 has KK
1 in 26.8 that one in 7 has QQ
1 in 28.8 that one in 6 has JJ

combined 483,884-1 approx

Regards ML

[William]

[ QUOTE ]
Given that so many posters think it is a bad idea to fold this I had to reconsider my stand. Perhaps it is closer than I originally thought.

But coincidentally last night I was reading 'Championship Tournament Practice Hands' by Tom McEvoy and T.J.Cloutier
In the No Limit section, pg 120:

"Any time the flop is raised and reraised before it gets to you in a tournament, I suggest that you dump your two kings. Even if you are wrong once in a while, you will save a lot of money in the long run."

Maybe they are just as 'weak tight' as me. I like their tournament results though.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is again a typical example of why books will never hurt the good poker players who fear that the "fish" is being educated.

The "fish" can be told a million times how to play, he will never change style.

No disrespect,
William

PS,

I doubt Cloutier and his fish partner wrote the book with SNG online players in mind /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[durron597]

Easy easy easy easy EASY call. I think most good players would call with AA here, and not raise allin, because they want you to consider playing and still be able to fold on a flop you don't like (on party you can live with 700 ish cips). I put the BB on KK/QQ/maybe AK.

Anyway, my philosophy with KK and multiple people allin is that the more of them there are, the likelier they all have aces and this making it likelier for you to have the best hand. I call here without even thinking about it.

[William]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy easy easy easy EASY call. I think most good players would call with AA here, and not raise allin, because they want you to consider playing and still be able to fold on a flop you don't like (on party you can live with 700 ish cips). I put the BB on KK/QQ/maybe AK.

Anyway, my philosophy with KK and multiple people allin is that the more of them there are, the likelier they all have aces and this making it likelier for you to have the best hand. I call here without even thinking about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

(Easy call). I agree with you.

(Most good players would just call here). I must be a terrible player, because I definitely push here.

Still be able to fold on a flop you don't like Please tell me I misunderstand this and you don't mean that the reason you just call is because you, holding AA want to have the option to fold if you don't like the flop /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

I that is what you mean, I don't know if I feel most like laughing or crying /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

William

[serling]

Hi Irishboy --

Early in an SnG, I'm always calling with KK.

And in fact, I had a similar hand over the weekend with KK and a 50+5.

I raised 3x, it's raised all-in, then another all-in. I called without hesitation. Their hands: AA and 10-10.

The board mocked us with an A and a K. While in the end giving 10-10 a one-card flush for the win.

How fun is poker!

serling

[fyodor]

I don't even take my own advice. This from a $22 Tournament today:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t2030)
UTG (t945)
MP (t2510)
Hypocrite (t2140)
SB (t375)

Preflop: Hypocrite is Button with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG raises to t945 (All-In), MP calls t945, Hypocrite raises to t2140 (All-In), <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, MP calls t1195.

Flop: (t5525) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t5525) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: (t5525) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t5525

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG shows Ks Ah (one pair, tens).
MP shows Ac Qs (one pair, tens).
Hypocrite shows Kh Kd (two pair, kings and tens).
Outcome: Hypocrite wins t5525. </font>

[stupidsucker]

Is your screen name really Hypocrite?

If it is... the irony of the post makes me laugh a little.

If it isnt.. Good job.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't run the figures at twodimes and then say "I am right".

If I knew what my opponents had everytime and could run twodimes, I would be a millionaire in no time.
This is a preflop situation and you must make a qualified guess.

This is s very common mistake in this forum, arguing with the help of twodimes AFTER you know what tour opponent holds.
Makes absolutely no sense and you are only deceiving yourself.

William

[/ QUOTE ]

William,

Did you even read my post, or did you just see the twodimes sim and go on blabbering about your crystal ball?

Here...let me post the relevant part again:

However, if you can narrow the BB's holdings to exactly AA/KK (which is what I would consider possible holdings for a solid player's all in CALL of two players with a solid UTG raiser still left to act) then it's a pretty easy laydown, really.
The BB would be six times more likely to have AA then KK.
If you think he would call with QQ, then it's close.
6 ways to have QQ, one way to have KK, six ways to have AA. Given the fact that it's not impossible for one of the all ins to also have AA, i think this is still a clear fold.
------------------------------------------------------------


If you want to argue the range of hands that a solid player will CALL with after two all-ins and a solid UTG raiser still left to act, then I'm all ears. But until you tell me what, exactly, you bothered to put the BB on, you are arguing from a pretty weak premise.
I'm not saying you should lay down KK because I'm scared of busting out, or I'm scared of an ace or some underpairs drawing out on me. I'm saying that folding is better than pushing exactly because I think that there is a very, very good chance that one of these players (specifically the BB) has AA/KK.
If they do, it's better for me to fold. It's really that simple.
But since you have yet to take the time to put the BB (or the other players for that matter) on a hand or range of hands (except saying "oh, I see all ins with all sorts of crap in SnGs"), you really have an argument based in something other than math.

I respect your play, but don't let your ego get in the way of this one. Convince me that the solid BB could make this call with something other than AA-QQ and you may have an argument.

-SossMan

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, there's probably at least one A at the hands of MP2 and SB, which reduces the chance of AA in the hands of BB.



[/ QUOTE ]

This is fine and dandy if you are talking before the BB acts. But once he CALLS (and I can't stress that enough..he had zero folding equity) two all in players, the chances of him having AA increase significantly.

[William]

I'll make it short:

From experience at the sng tables, I know that these kind of raises/reraises are made with practically any PP and hands as weak as KQ or even KJ.

Add the fact that in my opinion the original poster (no offence intended) is not a very good player and probably his opinion of a good solid player differs from mine and not only the call becomes easy but it is a sin to fold a KK hand.

So the range of hands the other players could have is much wider that what you assumed.

Now, we are talking sng's, wich in my opinion is THE palce where most inexperienced players/beginners play. Make that a good ring game or a late stage tournament table and I might have another opinion.

My ego has nothing to do here, I talk of experience and simple reasoning (at least my form of reasoning)

hope that what I write makes sense,
William

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
From experience at the sng tables, I know that these kind of raises/reraises are made with practically any PP and hands as weak as KQ or even KJ.


[/ QUOTE ]

C'mon..you really put BB on a hand as weak as KJ? If that is true then I'm quitting my day job and playing SnGs for the rest of my life. I find that hard to believe.
I think the key factor is that most players, no matter how bad, have to have some vague concept that calling isn't as good as raising. Therefore, the range of specifically the BB's possible hands is much narrower than you suspect. I don't think I've ever seen a third all in overcall with an UTG raiser still left to act without a very big hand (AA-QQ). And although it's less likely than the BB, it IS still possible that one of the other two all in's have AA.

I respect your opinion, since you have much more SnG experience (since I play almost exclusively MTTs), but I respectfully disagree.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

(Easy call). I agree with you.

(Most good players would just call here). I must be a terrible player, because I definitely push here.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ok so maybe "most" is wrong. In fact, maybe calling screams AA, so you should push, and then the whole statement is wrong.

[ QUOTE ]

Still be able to fold on a flop you don't like Please tell me I misunderstand this and you don't mean that the reason you just call is because you, holding AA want to have the option to fold if you don't like the flop /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

I that is what you mean, I don't know if I feel most like laughing or crying /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

William

[/ QUOTE ]

You misunderstood me /images/graemlins/smile.gif. If that is what I actually meant, than you should feel exactly as you do. I'm saying that if the guy with AA calls, then he might entice the original raiser to also call and then fold if he misses the flop (thus adding more chips to the pot that might not be there if you push).

[Claudio86]

Yup, everyone cries about all the beatings they take online, but they dont think about the fact that if they were playing at a b&amp;m where the dealers dealt 4x as fast theyd see the same numbers of certain suckouts etc. as far as folding kk this seems like a tough laydown but its just too risky to gamble this early in the tournament when you can safely fold and move up multiple places and get closer to the money, only reason you might call is if you think you will be outplayed at the table and want to take the risk in order to win enough chips to survive the better players

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
This is fine and dandy if you are talking before the BB acts. But once he CALLS (and I can't stress that enough..he had zero folding equity) two all in players, the chances of him having AA increase significantly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we are looking at it from 2 different angles. I have 2 combined assumptions:

1) If there were 2 all-ins infront of BB, big chance at least one of them has an A.

2) From my own expirience, there is a very good chance that BB here, although described as "solid", will make his move with JJ-AA, and some players with AQ-AK too. As I've stated in a previous post here, even "better-than-avarage" online SNG players have VERY difficult time folding hands like JJ and even TT and AQ PF. IMHO, I'd have to respect him way too much in order to assume he holds only AA-KK (although I disagree with William about KJ, if BB is even remotely "solid").

These 2 assumptions combined, makes the possibility of BB holding AA much less probable than other holdings from the "big hands" range.

That's why I call.

This whole argument is basically about how much you respect a certain on-line SNG player. Those here who say "call", simply don't respect him enough to put him on AA-KK (or even QQ-AA). You, on the other hand, believe he's strong enough (and also respects the 2 first players!) in order to lay-down JJ, QQ, AK. As I see it, only a very small minority of on-line SNG player are worth this "respect". that's my point.

[Dooner]

Ok, I just want to get this out in the open and said. I never said that online poker is rigged. That is not what I was eluding to. And I believe that I covered that in my second post. It all has to do with seeing more hands online than in a b&amp;m. If I thought online was rigged, I would not be playing online. So, once and for all, I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT ONLINE POKER IS RIGGED!!!! Thanks.

/images/graemlins/cool.gif

[snowbank]

?

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
From experience at the sng tables, I know that these kind of raises/reraises are made with practically any PP and hands as weak as KQ or even KJ.


[/ QUOTE ]

C'mon..you really put BB on a hand as weak as KJ? If that is true then I'm quitting my day job and playing SnGs for the rest of my life. I find that hard to believe.
I think the key factor is that most players, no matter how bad, have to have some vague concept that calling isn't as good as raising. Therefore, the range of specifically the BB's possible hands is much narrower than you suspect. I don't think I've ever seen a third all in overcall with an UTG raiser still left to act without a very big hand (AA-QQ). And although it's less likely than the BB, it IS still possible that one of the other two all in's have AA.

I respect your opinion, since you have much more SnG experience (since I play almost exclusively MTTs), but I respectfully disagree.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've never seen A8s call an all in PF on the first hand of a SNG? I've seen it many times.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
From experience at the sng tables, I know that these kind of raises/reraises are made with practically any PP and hands as weak as KQ or even KJ.


[/ QUOTE ]

C'mon..you really put BB on a hand as weak as KJ? If that is true then I'm quitting my day job and playing SnGs for the rest of my life. I find that hard to believe.
I think the key factor is that most players, no matter how bad, have to have some vague concept that calling isn't as good as raising. Therefore, the range of specifically the BB's possible hands is much narrower than you suspect. I don't think I've ever seen a third all in overcall with an UTG raiser still left to act without a very big hand (AA-QQ). And although it's less likely than the BB, it IS still possible that one of the other two all in's have AA.

I respect your opinion, since you have much more SnG experience (since I play almost exclusively MTTs), but I respectfully disagree.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've never seen A8s call an all in PF on the first hand of a SNG? I've seen it many times.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is completely different, and I think you know that. Have you ever seen a "solid, tight player" call all in after two all in's and a UTG raiser still left to act with A8s? I haven't.

Of course, my argument would definitely change if there was no read on the "solid, tight" player in the BB. Against typical opponents, I call and half expect to be up against AA, but I wouldn't be sure enough to warrant a fold. My play here is definitely based on the fact that the original poster said that the BB is a "solid, tight" player...a fact that is mostly being ignored here.
You can't say, "oh, well I've seen the random online player do some crazy Sh!t, so he could have anything" after being told that the hero had a read.
If you want to ignore the read, or you disagree with it based on some factor, then that would obviously change the situation. But I was responding to the original post as it was written.

[coolhandtom]

[ QUOTE ]

If I'm at a table with daniel negraneu and phil helmuth and annie duke and two of them are all in before it gets back to me, yes I'll fold my kings. Against the average SnG monkey I'm not folding.



[/ QUOTE ]

that is awesome. i totally agree. with high caliber pros, i fold before my eyes blink, but against party fish, i would hold tight, pray all the aces have called each other in, leaving them all no outs. at worst you have a split with the other KK. at the very worst, some ridiculous bottom dweller fish hits a made for tv miracle flop with a 10, and you move on to another SNG. /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[stupidsucker]

Then I am curious... at what point do any of you muck the KK?

with one more all in? maybe 2 more?

[AJo Go All In]

i didn't read any of the responses, or the post, all i need to read is the title.

no, don't fold KK preflop.

[coolhandtom]

well in this situation, in which this discussion is centered upon, 3 of 7 players folded prior to the major action, so in no way do i fold this superior KK.

if i am last to act preflop, and all 6 dive in before me, well then i blink a few times before deciding, but that is a whole different ballgame. i still think i call here, but it is possible most of the A's and K's are in the hole positions, and someone HAS AA. then i might fold.

but in the hand being discussed, im 100% all in. and in his case, he was 100% correct to do so [only said after results posted], but unfortunately some guy playing his first ever poker game went all in with 10s and said a rosary before the flop, and hit. /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[William]

You're so right.

In fact I have changed my mind. In this situation I fold inmidiately when it's my turn to act, because I know that at a table full of fishes I will end up all-in against 4/5 other players and I want to avoid that and be able to look a my chips for a while longer.

Thank you all for opening my eyes. Now I can back to my ring games...

William /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

The first all-in raise smells like AK. If that's the case, you've just eliminated 50% of the AA possibilities. The short stack can have anything, Now we take the BB. He looks at that and if he's a thinking player he deduces that there are likely 2 aces in people's hands, thus AA is now 1/6 as likely as if nobody else is in. He figures that it eliminates a good deal of possible outs and pushes in with QQ.

That was a long-winded way to say I call.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
The first all-in raise smells like AK. If that's the case, you've just eliminated 50% of the AA possibilities. The short stack can have anything, Now we take the BB. He looks at that and if he's a thinking player he deduces that there are likely 2 aces in people's hands, thus AA is now 1/6 as likely as if nobody else is in. He figures that it eliminates a good deal of possible outs and pushes in with QQ.

That was a long-winded way to say I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Boy..that's a lot of if's.