Should I continue here?

[Rico Suave]

I would like some of the math folk's here to help me out if possible. Consider the following hand.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Rico is MP3 with Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif, K /images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Rico raises, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif(7 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG folds, MP2 calls, Rico???

I have a decision on whether to continue on the flop or not. The pot offers about 17:1, and so it seems like a no brainer that I should continue here. But some have said that my hand will not be good often enough to make this call profitable. Here is a quick calc I did thinking only of my overcard outs:


I am going to assume here that my hand will be good 50% of the time I hit here. How accurate is this? Anyway to calculate a rough estimate on how often my hand will be good? I understand there are tons of factors involved (assume we take the turn 4 handed), but is there some other way, rather than a flat out guess, to get a rough idea here?

Looking at 10 hits:
If when I hit and win, I assume I will win an additional 4 BB. So we have 5 X (4bb + current pot 8.5BB) = 62.5bb

If when I hit and lose, I assume I will lose an additional 3 BB. So we have 5 X (3bb) + 15bb

So each time I hit I should net a 4.75bb profit. Is this fine?

Now If I hit about 12.75% of the time on the turn (is this figure right?) Then out of 100 hands

12.75 times * 4.75 bb = 60.56bb profit
and
87.25 times X 0.5bb = 43.62 bb chasing my hand.

My continuing would show a slight +ev of 0.169 bb per hand.

So, tell me if going through this analysis means anything. Tell me if my assumption are wrong? Is there a way to mathematically determine the profitability of continuing with this hand. Am I smoking too much crack and I should just simply continue b/c the pot is offering an overlay?

Any help from you guys would be appreciated.

--Rico

[Rico Suave]

One last try.

Anyone?...Anyone?....Bueller.....Bueller.....Buell er....

--Rico

[papawawa]

Rico,
Your dilemma is slightly complicated. In response to your first question, your KQ suited would most likely be good 1) provided no one has Ax suited spades IF the spades hits OR 2)an Ace AND a ten hit OR 3)either a Q or a K hit, giving you TPTK. The union of these probabilities will give you the answer to your first assumption excluding special cases. It really depends on what you think will beat SB(any reads?), as the rest of your analysis is based on this assumption. Anyway, even though I am intrigued by your thread I can't actually solve it now since I'm at work; but I'll give it a shot later!

[Rico Suave]

papawawa:

[ QUOTE ]
It really depends on what you think will beat SB(any reads?),

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I will cheat a little here and tell you that I raised the flop and the sb 3 bet me. I was confident he would not 3-bet with a flush draw, so I figured him for a strong J or better, with a strong J being most likely. (After I raised the flop, it was 4 handed to the turn.

Thanks for taking the time to look at this one, I appreciate any help you can offer.

--Rico

[papawawa]

Rico,
If you are drawing against a strong J, the odds your KQ is good are slightly better than 25%. Here's how i figured it:
1)The odds two spades will drop: 1 in 24 (the possibility he's holding Ax spades is so small its negligable).
2)The odds of an A AND a 10 dropping are about 1 in 68 (also negligable in my book).
3)The odds a K or Q AND NOT another J, 6 or 3 (in case he's betting a smaller pair) is about 1 in 5. The way I see it, (1) and (3) are the only factors we need account for, leaving you 1 in 4 odds.
A good rule of thumb is to simply use your 6 KQ outs to determine pot odds. Your backdoor flush odds basically cancel out his trip odds. Play aggressively unless a scare card hits. Good luck!