The poker slide "bounce"

[dfscott]

This may belong in the theory forum, but I'm starting here because I'm not yet convinced it's something that is statistically true.

It's well established (empirically, anyway) that every poker player will eventually have an extended BR slide of some sort. However, I find it interesting that when reading most people's recounting of these slides, it always goes something like this:

Last week, I had an absolutely horrible run at the .5/1 tables. In just 4 days, I managed to lose all my gains for the previous month. Fortunately, I managed to turn things around over the weekend, gaining back half of my losses in one session.

The slide is not the unusual part, but the fact that people seem to get a huge hunk back immediately following the slide is what's unusual to me. I thought that maybe it was people thinking that they were up a ton when they really weren't until the same thing happened to me.

I went on a 3-day, 90BB slide at micro-limit HE at PS over the holiday weekend. The session that I turned it around started the same way (losing a TPTK to a flush that hit on the river), but then my draws started hitting. I felt like I was doing "ok" and probably up a little, but I was shocked when I checked my BR at the end of the session and discovered that I was up almost 50BB! I had to double-check to make sure that I was doing the math right.

Is this consistent with others' experience? If so, any idea what causes this phenomena? Or was this just luck that it happened to me the same way it did others?

[Warik]

I was down close to 90 BB over the past two days playing 10/20. Big hands would either miss flops or steal the blinds. Weak hands would flop nice and lose. Bluffs were 0% effective.

Then last night I completely destroyed the game and my downswing is now only 1.6 BB.

It makes no sense and seems almost like the "game" knows that you're due for a recovery upswing and thus you play almost perfectly during that time. If I were superstitious, I'd play .5/1 games whenever I'm down more than 25 BB and I'd jump up to 15/30 when I smelled an upswing coming.

Oh... and I made my first Party cashout the day before the downswing started... so the Party cashout curse is real too.

Weird stuff. Spooky.

[StellarWind]

The phenomenon you describe is an illusion. What we perceive as a slide is normally not an unbroken series of serious losses. What actually happens is that the "good times" are interrupted by a loss. Then there are more losses, some breakeven hours, a couple small profits, more losses, a really painful loss, a 10 BB gain, a couple hours treading water, a session that starts well but we lose it all back, more losses, a good morning that brings hope, another fiasco in the afternoon, etc., etc.

Then we sit down with PokerTracker and say "Ahhhgggg, we have lost 120 BB in the last three weeks. When will this nightmare end?"

Those three weeks were actually a messy, complicated process, but mentally we tend to condense it down into "a bad run".

The only thing that is likely to bring emotional closure to your bad run is a dramatic upward surge.

In other words, bad runs end in big bounces because we are unwilling to accept that the bad run is over until we see a big bounce.

I should know. My actual results the last three days have been +10 BB, -2 BB, +1 BB. I've been on a losing streak for two weeks. I desperately want it to end soon /images/graemlins/frown.gif.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
The phenomenon you describe is an illusion. What we perceive as a slide is normally not an unbroken series of serious losses. What actually happens is that the "good times" are interrupted by a loss. Then there are more losses, some breakeven hours, a couple small profits, more losses, a really painful loss, a 10 BB gain, a couple hours treading water, a session that starts well but we lose it all back, more losses, a good morning that brings hope, another fiasco in the afternoon, etc., etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

I willing to consider your explanation, but at this point I don't agree. At the end of every session (I define "session" as sitting down at the computer for an uninterrupted period of time to play, not what PT defines as a session), I write down my current BR and how much it went up or down. Here are my results for the period I was describing (amounts are in BB):

7/2 evening: +4.3
7/3 morning: +16.5
7/3 evening: -37.0
7/4 evening: -20.3
7/5 morning: -0.7
7/5 afternoon: -1.32
7/5 evening: -10.2
7/6 evening: -18.4
7/7 evening: +47.9

Note that between the evening of 7/3 and the evening of 7/6, I went on an uninterrupted string of losses where I dropped a total of 87.92BB (not quite 90, but close enough). Note also the big bounce at the bottom that I was referring to in my previous post.

Were there any tables during that period where I was in the black? Sure, I sat at a table for 13 minutes before it broke up and made 10BB. I sat at another for 18 and made 1BB. Either of these would be considered successful if extended in time. However, I think most people record sessions the way I do, and would consider the above an unbroken string of sessions without a positive result, a la a "big slide."

[StellarWind]

You have illustrated my point. You had two moderate losing sessions in a row on the evenings of 7/3 and 7/4. Then you played two sessions on 7/5 and virtually broke even in both of them.

You had a flat period that lasted as long as your original mini-slide and yet you refuse to recognize that the original slide ended right then and there was no bounce.

Please don't tell me that everything would be different if you had won 2BB during the flat period instead of losing 2BB. It's insignificant.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
You have illustrated my point. You had two moderate losing sessions in a row on the evenings of 7/3 and 7/4. Then you played two sessions on 7/5 and virtually broke even in both of them.

You had a flat period that lasted as long as your original mini-slide and yet you refuse to recognize that the original slide ended right then and there was no bounce.

Please don't tell me that everything would be different if you had won 2BB during the flat period instead of losing 2BB. It's insignificant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm... ok, I think see where you're going. You're saying that I didn't have a slide, just a series of losing sessions? And each session wasn't followed by a bounce, but by a flat session or another loss? And I'm defining the end of my slide by the bounce, not the other way around? I can buy that, I guess.

I understand that we're discussing somantics here (loosely defined terms such as session, losing, and slide), but the fact remains that after a long series of losing and/or break-even sessions (as I record them), I had the 4th highest winning session of my brief (15K hand) poker career.

What I would like to see is an analysis of the number of times that a long (80+BB) streak of losing is followed by 3-4 small winning sessions versus a large (equal to half or more of the total loss) gain. I don't have the data to research that and I'm not asking anyone to do it, I would just find it interesting.

[blackaces13]

I think this happens in everything in life. It happens in golf all the time. Sometimes I'll shoot a 50 on the front and then a 36 on the back. If you watch pros the same thing happens to them too. The year Tiger blew out the Masters by 12 strokes he shot a 40 on the front 9 on Thursday...oh yeah, he also shot a 30 on the back.

Its human nature to notice streaks, both good and bad. This magnifies our perception of these natural fluctuations, but I also think there is another human triat at play and it has to do with being competitive. Once things get so bad that you can't take it anymore you basically force yourself to play flawlessly, you simply will not accept anything less, you just CAN'T allow it. I think that abilty is always in us somewhere but its hard to get at and even harder to maintain. Once circumstance pushes anyone who is competitive so far that they can't take it anymore, their losses and failings are literally driving them crazy, then they have to unlock that part of themself. Its a natural form of damage control. In case of emergency break glass, there's your "A-game". If not then you'd probably just quit and be done with it. If you continually played at something and lost and were ineffective then you wouldn't play it anymore. But if you've ever had some real success then its in you somewhere, and when you need it most it will probably show up.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Its human nature to notice streaks, both good and bad. This magnifies our perception of these natural fluctuations, but I also think there is another human triat at play and it has to do with being competitive. Once things get so bad that you can't take it anymore you basically force yourself to play flawlessly, you simply will not accept anything less, you just CAN'T allow it. I think that abilty is always in us somewhere but its hard to get at and even harder to maintain. Once circumstance pushes anyone who is competitive so far that they can't take it anymore, their losses and failings are literally driving them crazy, then they have to unlock that part of themself. Its a natural form of damage control. In case of emergency break glass, there's your "A-game". If not then you'd probably just quit and be done with it. If you continually played at something and lost and were ineffective then you wouldn't play it anymore. But if you've ever had some real success then its in you somewhere, and when you need it most it will probably show up.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's where I was going with this. I thought something along the same lines, but didn't want to toss it out there until I got some feedback. I think StellarWind had some good points, too, but I think the truth is probably a combination of the two.

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the truth is probably a combination of the two.

[/ QUOTE ]

People always love for this to be the case. Yeah, it's a bit of both, combination of factors, six of one, half a dozen of the other etc. And it's nice, it fits, it's friendly, no one is wrong or confused or doesn't understand mathematics.

In this case (and almost always that I have seen) StellarWind is completely right. The "game" or the "cards" don't remember anything.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the truth is probably a combination of the two.

[/ QUOTE ]

People always love for this to be the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's because it usually is. It's rare that something as complex as poker results can be boiled down to one single, solitary cause-effect relationship.

In any case, I think people use the "it's just chance" to write off things they don't understand. It's right up there with the "any two can win" theory. They're both true, but there are other factors at work in both situations.

Now, if we could only figure out what those factors are.... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey dfscott,

I'm in the middle/begginning/end of what's currently just shy of a 300 BB downswing. I'll get back to you in a few weeks. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

GoT

[Gahnia radula]

Has anyone considered that the bounce back is just a return to normality (the bell shaped curve)

Gahnia radula

[Blarg]

In the long run, almost everything happens. The run just has to be long enough.

So we'll all definitely see the end of slide "bounce" many times over, if we play long enough. If you haven't, you'll get your chance sooner or later.

I recently went up 200 BB in a single day. About five hours actually. I had been on a horrible slide. No theory of any kind involved really -- 200 BB is a heckuva number, especially for five hours. Now that's a bounce!

Part of it was hitting a single hand for 48 1/2 BB. Probably the biggest pot I've ever seen, BB-wise. You get those, and you lose some real monsters too. There's no reason to think that kind of thing will never happen.

By the way the next day I went up 80 BB and the day after that I went down 80 BB. Those low-limit games get like that a lot.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
If I were superstitious, I'd play .5/1 games whenever I'm down more than 25 BB and I'd jump up to 15/30 when I smelled an upswing coming.

Oh... and I made my first Party cashout the day before the downswing started... so the Party cashout curse is real too.


[/ QUOTE ]

I got smashed at 2/4 over the last two days, so I just moved up to 3/6. Things are much better, now. I had cashed out, so I put MORE money back in. It doesn't make any sense, but I sure feel better.