Who is for mucking this AA on the river?

[SinCityGuy]

Mirage 10/20

I open-raise with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, UTG+1 (unknown female player) calls, loose/passive player calls on the button, good playing BB calls.

Four to the flop for 8 SB's.

Flop: K/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif

I bet, UTG+1 calls, button calls, BB calls.

Four to the turn for 6 BB's.

Turn: T/images/graemlins/heart.gif

I bet, UTG+1 raises, button folds, BB folds, I call.

Two to the river for 10 BB's.

River: K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I check, UTG+1 bets.....

[ike]

Its worse than 9.5 : 1 against her having QQ or worse? I doubt it. I say bet out and fold to the raise rather than checkcall, but checkcall is better than checkfold.

[Thomsen]

why on earth bet out if youre going to fold to a raise ? check-calling is a lot better option than folding.

[nummerfire]

Because UTG would call with some hands she would not bet.

This means that your EV of betting is better than check calling, even when you most likely are beat.

Kim

[Jules22]

isnt re-raising the turn better there? i mean you're certainly ahead of anything besides a random 2 pair.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
Because UTG would call with some hands she would not bet.

This means that your EV of betting is better than check calling, even when you most likely are beat.

Kim

[/ QUOTE ]

On what do you base this information (original poster said UTG+1 is unknown)? Wouldn't some players bet more hands than they would call with?

It sounds like a classic situation as described in TOP or the Sklanksy HE books: you think you may have the best hand, but are not > 55% sure, therefore check + call.

I'm not disagreeing with you; I'm generally confused (as a beginner who's read lots of stuff but has WAY too little practical playing experience) and would like to know more about your reasoning.

thanks!

[SpaceAce]

I don't think you should fold the river. I am not going to take a stand on the bet/fold versus check/call play here but I definitely like check/call more than check/fold. I am going to be optimistic and hope she had 9T and got counterfeited on the river.

SpaceAce

[ML4L]

Hey Sin,

I would call. T9s just got counterfeited. She could also have picked up a heart draw on the turn with something like 98s. Obviously, with some sort of read, you might be able to eliminate those hands, but without a read, I can't see folding here...

Hope it worked out.

ML4L

[Boopotts]

It's real close, although I probably call and pray they have T9.

[Clarkmeister]

There are simply more important things to worry about than whether or not to fold an overpair headsup on the river for one bet in a 10BB pot.

[nummerfire]

In this situation your opponent will always bet when you are beat. You will always call. So if you are beat the bet is always going in.

But maybe she would not bet qq jj or a counterfeited t9.

And you can safely lay down to a raise. Go find another opponent if she would bluff raise the river here.

The concept is discussed in TOP chapter 21. And I think it applies here.


Kim

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
Because UTG would call with some hands she would not bet.

This means that your EV of betting is better than check calling, even when you most likely are beat.

Kim

[/ QUOTE ]

NO WAY. when hero is popped on the turn, is it not reasonable to put the lady on KT, T9, QJ or some other set? aside from AK, KQ, KJ what do you really want UTG+1 to have?

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
But maybe she would not bet qq jj or a counterfeited t9.


[/ QUOTE ]

where do u get QQ, JJ, i don't understand

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
There are simply more important things to worry about than whether or not to fold an overpair headsup on the river for one bet in a 10BB pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

now that's more like it.

[elysium]

hi sin
call it down. i want to see what she's in there with.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
hi sin
call it down. i want to see what she's in there with.

[/ QUOTE ]

ROFL

Next time I'm making a close call on the river, I'll call and tell myself, "well, Elysium wants to know, so I guess I should call".

[mikelow]

But I'm folding this one. Turn raise sounds like a king--perhaps KT or K9. There is less than a 10% chance that aces are good.

It might be an easier fold with a turn three-bet.

[Clarkmeister]

Why are you trying to find "easy ways to fold".

The river king makes it less likely that the opponent has one. Enough so that calling is good. Calling and silently mucking is far better than what most Vegas regulars do in that game. Namely, showing their AA to everyone at the table and making a big show of their "quality laydown". Bah.

[DcifrThs]

personally i hate calling the turn and folding the river. in NL that seems to be one of the week points of my game that ML4L has noted is fixed only by experience. the thing is, its hard to tell for sure you're behind sometimes until the river bet comes...

BUT, in limit, if you call on the turn you shoul dhave a plan for the river...you really don't know what you're "redraws" are here should you be behind so when you call the turn it seems likely you call the river. i don't think you're against a lone king here so i don't think that K helps other than to maybe counterfeit a lower two pair.

that turn raise is what gets me thinking though...you said she's unknown....and the raise looks like its intent is to FOLD people out...maybe she picked up a flush draw with her king and is semi/bluffing kind of...although it does look like QJ...or a set...but with QJ, why raise out your callers...there's 2 of them so let them call.

so a set seems possible as does the QJ (though she may play it weird)...KT is also definately a possibility but GIVEN you called the turn i call the river. otherwise FOLD the turn if you think you're really in bad shape...

tough spot. but i don't like calling the turn w/o the intent of drawing and then folding the river for 1 bet b/c that means (to me in any case) that i 100% wasted a big bet on the turn by calling.

-Barron

[astroglide]

jim brier is!

[skp]

If she can call a UTG raise with KT or K9, she can also call with T9 - a hand that beats yours on the turn but which has been counterfeited on the river.

BTW, I am not saying that I am putting her on T9 but it's a possibility. AA can expect to lose but folding would not be the right play.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
isnt re-raising the turn better there? i mean you're certainly ahead of anything besides a random 2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

...or a straight, or a set, or basically any hand that beats 1 pair...

-Barron

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
KT is also definately a possibility but GIVEN you called the turn i call the river. otherwise FOLD the turn if you think you're really in bad shape...

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding an 8-outer on the turn would be terrible.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
KT is also definately a possibility but GIVEN you called the turn i call the river. otherwise FOLD the turn if you think you're really in bad shape...

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding an 8-outer on the turn would be terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

i said it in the same paragraph, doesn't mean i mean that you should fold w/ 8 outs...i SAID "really bad shape" as in vs. a set or straight. its hard to tell exactly what you're against. my concept was fold the turn or call the river but don't call the turn and fold the river unless you know something for sure here. when you call the turn assuming you have 8 outs, which 6 are you looking for? how can you be sure?

-Barron

[SinCityGuy]

When she raised, I thought her most likely holdings were AK or KTs, although AK would have probably 3-bet before the flop. An argument can be made for 3-betting the turn in my spot (which several posters have suggested). With KTs, I've got the two aces (obviously), the three nines and the three fours. Of course, I only have two outs if she has TT, 99 or 44. Many players would 3-bet preflop with TT or 99 to get it heads-up, so I slightly discounted those hands. Bad players would cold-call with 44, but that's a distant possibility here. Bad players also cold-call with QJ, in which case I'm nearly drawing dead. The other very remote possibility is T9s.

When the second K hits on the river, I'm pretty much dead and buried. Only the unlikely T9s is beaten.

[Gabe]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling and silently mucking is far better than what most Vegas regulars do in that game. Namely, showing their AA to everyone at the table and making a big show of their "quality laydown".

[/ QUOTE ]

You're wrong. There is nothing better than that.

[andyfox]

I think he meant "you should call it down because you'd want to see what she's in there with." Or "I'd call it down because I'd want to see what she'sin there with." Or maybe you're right. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[andyfox]

Any chance she has A /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif or A /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif?

Since I don't know her, I'd call and expect to lose. Looks a lot like Q-J. We 2+2er are river callers. You probably have more of a chance of winning than of finding someone to say fold here. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[ike]

Its not a matter of where do you get them. They may be highly unlikely but even the possibility of a beaten pocket pair (and don't tell you haven't been shown stranger things) makes betting better than checkcalling. Maybe JJ decided on the turn that it was likely up against AQ and went for the raise and free showdown? The counterfeited T9 is even more likely though.

[SinCityGuy]

I called her down, and she had K/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif for the turned top two pair and the rivered full house.

I posted this one for several reasons, and I'm probably going to get some criticism for what I'm about to say, but so be it.

Looking to make good laydowns should not be the cornerstone of any winning player's philosophy. However, I do think that they have their place, and they are one of many variables that separate great players from above average players. I have no doubt that Tommy Angelo and Mike L. (and many more great players) add a substantial amount to their bottom line by making these types of laydowns. They add up over the course of time.

I wasted a big bet here by making a crying call on the river, when all of the evidence indicated that I was badly beaten.

[mikelow]

That should swing it to a fold.

[Desdia72]

[ QUOTE ]
I called her down, and she had K/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif for the turned top two pair and the rivered full house.

I posted this one for several reasons, and I'm probably going to get some criticism for what I'm about to say, but so be it.

Looking to make good laydowns should not be the cornerstone of any winning player's philosophy. However, I do think that they have their place, and they are one of many variables that separate great players from above average players. I have no doubt that Tommy Angelo and Mike L. (and many more great players) add a substantial amount to their bottom line by making these types of laydowns. They add up over the course of time.

I wasted a big bet here by making a crying call on the river, when all of the evidence indicated that I was badly beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

excellent conclusion.

[anatta]

I would fold the turn or call down. To deviate from this normal binary choice would seem to require extraordinary circumstances which I don't see here.

I would fold more vs. a woman.

FWIW, I would call down more with overpair than top pair/kicker. I tend to call down more vs. "limit the field" turn raises. I would almost always call if it is possible for opponent to have top pair (usually aces/weak kicker) and have picked up a flush draw on turn.

[ike]

A laydown that saves you 1BB is just as good as a value bet that earns you 1BB. Theres just a lot less room for error with the laydowns.

[ML4L]

Hey Sin,

IMHO, if she coldcalled your raise in EP with KTs, she certainly would have done so with T9s, 98s, A9s, etc. You had no idea how she played; she could have been over-agressive and/or poor-playing for all you knew. You beat a few semi-reasonable holdings, all of which would have bet the river.

I agree completely with your point about the money saved by making laydowns adding up. But, I wouldn't beat myself up over not folding this one. If you had a read on her, maybe. But, since you didn't, I don't think that you call was necessarily poor...

ML4L