The ignorant end is my favorite end...

[Apoc]

Wanted some suggestions on how hard to push this hand, if at all...

UB NL $1 BB
Folded to me ($95) one off the button with pocket 2's and I make it $2 (probably should have made it more but the blinds have been playing tight and folding to most raises). Button ($75) calls and BB ($120) calls.

Flop comes 3 4 5 (suits don't matter)
Checked to me, I bet the pot ($6.50) button raises to $13. BB folds and I call.

Turn comes 6 (3 4 5), completing my very ignorant straight.
I check, button bets $11 and I checkraise to $22, button calls.

River comes J (6 3 4 5) and I struggle with the decision about how much to bet here. Pot size is about $75. I believe that I have the best hand, but what do you put the button on and how much do you bet at the end?

Appreciate any feedback!
Apoc

[JrJordan]

The villain only has about $40 left at this point. I'd probably make a value bet around $25. Here's nearly pot committed and would most likely push from here if he's going to play. If you really think you're ahead in this hand, I think this is the best way to get his stack.

On a side note, what's with all the min raises/bets? If you're going to raise with 22 PF, make it a legitimate bet, $4 or so. The c/r on the turn is also weak. I'd make it more around 30. This make it much easier to see where you stand. If he reraises, you know he has you beat and can lay it down.

[t_petrosian]

Without having a clue about who he is, I can't say what I would put him on. Is he the kind of guy who plays any ace?? A2?(not likely with 2 of the 2s in your hand) A6? A7?

You seem worried about the blinds folding to a good bet preflop - but do you think 22 is really a hand where you want to keep people around?? I'm thinking if you can steal the blinds with 22 you should be happy. 22 may be able to stand up to hands, so it's a reasonable hand to try to steal with. But asking for callers is suicide, I think.

Anyway, I also don't like the checkraise. If he was bluffing or semi-bluffing $11, then he's going to call your check-raise, because he's already got good money in there. If you bet here and he calls and/or raises, you are getting good info. As is, who knows what he has.

Also, in late position, perhaps he is the calling your bet with 76 or even the gutshot 87. Again, what do we know about this guy?!?!

What happened?

[Zag]

Wow. I disagree with you on every street.

Preflop: You are in the cutoff, which is the seat from which you make the MOST raises. You absolutely want to push the button out. If all you win is the blinds, that is a good thing -- it is more than your expectation if you are called. Note that 22 is only barely ahead (11 to 10) of any two cards that do not include a 2, and it is a huge dog to any pair. Note that 22 is BEHIND any suited connectors from 45 - JQ!

So, even if you are ahead the 11 to 10 that you were hoping for when you hoped for a call, if you had bet 4BB's, then your expectation would be only 4.675 (pre-rake!) if the Button and SB fold and the BB calls. Your expectation if they all fold is 5.5. Chump change, I know, but you have to take expected value where you get it. Sure, you lose your chance to win a big hand. You also lose your chance to lose a big hand.

To counter what I just said, having raised (with position) you do have some very good bluff equity, so your EV is probably a little higher than 4.675, but I'll bet it still doesn't reach 5.5. After all, since you are clearly very aggressive, if your opponent hits his hand, you will be looking at a check-raise, almost certainly. When you hit this hand and lose (with as little as, say, an ignorant straight), you are obviously going to lose a lot.

Flop: Checked to you, you bet the pot (good, but you are just hoping to take it right here) and are check-raised. Now fold. You are such a dog to 23, 56, 67, 57, A3, A4, A5 and any pocket pair, that you might as well burn your chips. These are all hands that might have called your wimpy preflop raise, hoping to get lucky. Did this player make a lot of bluff raises? That is the only thing you can beat right now.

Turn: Ignorant end is right. At this point, you probably have to commit to the hand, because it is probably good, but I wouldn't want to commit much. Do you really expect to be called and win? If he calls you, you had better start hoping that you are just going to chop the pot. If you are really SURE you are good, because this play only plays big cards, then check-raise more. The minimum check-raise is just asking to be reraised by the nuts, but doesn't put that much more money in there for you to win. And just remember that you are drawing dead to any idiot with a 7.

River: Check and call what you hope is a bluff attempt. If you bet and he calls then you'll be lucky to chop. Maybe a two pair or a set would call here, but they would also probably bet out if you check to them. If he checks behind, then he probably wasn't going to call a bet, anyway. At least this way you get to see what he had.

[Apoc]

Zag-

You make some great points. My thoughts (right or wrong) throughout the hand.

PF: The blinds (particularly the BB in this hand) had been folding his BB to any raise. In retrospect, I should have raised a bit more pf to just try to pick up the blinds and been satisfied. Honestly, I thought the min raise would do the trick in this case.

Flop: Relatively good flop for me, but once I get raised I figure I'm behind. The button had made some ridiculous bets in his time at the table, most recently raising all-in pf ($80) after four limpers with what he claimed was KK (no one called so I guess it worked, but risking 80 to win 9 seemed a little over the top). Nonetheless, I figured he'd call my raise pf with connectors, PPs or at least one big card (Ax, Kx). I don't put him on 76 because I think he'd wait until at least the turn to pop it without any flush draw out there. Maybe a set, but I thought his most likely holding was a pair or 2 pair (A5,A4,A3,K5,K4,K3,56,45,34) so that I felt a 6 is good as well.

Turn: Alright, they say ignorance is bliss, so let's test that theory. I check, planning to check raise. He bets 1/3 of the pot (feels like he's scared of the str8 to me) and has about $50 left. If I check raise all-in, I figure he'll only call if we chop or if he wins. If I just call the bet, I probably have the check the river and he may very well check behind even with two pair or a set. If I min-raise, and he comes over the top, I can probably lay it down (although that would be admittedly tough with having to call another $40 to win about $115 or so). If he only calls the min-raise, I'm almost certain I'm ahead unless the board pairs on the river.

River: Basically a blank. How much to push??? The pot is about $75, so I don't think he'll call the all-in (he's got about $40 left) with only a pair. So I put in $25, hoping that's enough to call with a pair or two pair.

Results: He did call and showed 65 for the turned two pair and I dragged a nice $120 pot or so (after rake). After hearing some responses, there are definitely places in the hand where I made some questionable decisions. Appreciate the feedback!

Apoc

[TStoneMBD]

Your raises here are valuebets in case he doesn't have the straight. I think you overplayed your fools end and I think the BB overplayed his weak 2pair. I am new to 2plus2 so I am still learning all the terminology of EV, but other than being baffled by his use of numbers, I agree with everything that he mentioned here :P

[Zag]

Well, given that he was willing to call with only 2 pair on that board (I assume he put you on big cards for your preflop raise, or maybe he is just stupid), then maybe the check-raise and a bet on the end makes some sense. But maybe he would have pushed on the river if you had checked to him.

By the way, look at how far behind you were on the flop, almost 3 to 1: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=388268

Hi TStone.
Feel free to ask about any terminology that you aren't familiar with. (Hopefully) we all here remember that there was an instant when we learned these terms, and before that time we didn't know them either.

EV is "expected value" Generally, it is the amount you stand to win, times your chance of winning it, minus the amount you stand to lose times your chance of losing it.

You should always consider folding right now to have an EV of zero, so any money that is in the pot (even if you put it there originally), is part of what you stand to win. Add to that Any additonal money that other people will put in the pot. Any additional money that you are about to put in the pot is money you stand to lose.

EV = (current pot + additional money from others) * (your chance to win)
- (additional money you have to put in) * (your chance to lose)

Hope this helps.
Zag