Do I base my decision to call on turn or turn AND river?

[Crumpled Ear]

Imagine the following example: you have a pair of nines in late position. Five people limp, you limp, the BB raises and all call. There are 7 players for 13 small bets. The flop has no 9, but if a 9 comes, you think you will win. One player bets and you have to decide what to do. With that said, here's my question: I have two outs. In one of my poker books it says my odds of making a set by the river are about 11 to 1 against me. But my odds of making a set by the turn are about 22 to 1 against me. Which odds do I use to decide whether or not I see the turn? If I use the 11 to 1 odds, I would see at least another card. If I use the 22 to 1, I fold.

The same question could be asked of other draws too. For instance, if I flop a four flush draw, do I use the 2 to 1 (approx odds for flush by river) or 4 to 1 (approx odds for flush by turn) to decide what to do?

thanks in advance!

[pudley4]

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Which odds do I use to decide whether or not I see the turn? If I use the 11 to 1 odds, I would see at least another card. If I use the 22 to 1, I fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hint: If you pay the flop bet, are you guaranteed to see the river for that cost, or are there additional costs involved?

[Leo Bello]

Use the turn unless it is an all in situation.

[MEbenhoe]

You use the odds of making it on the turn for your bet unless either you or your opponent will be all in in which case you can use the turn and river. However, there is another added aspect. If you don't have the discipline to call the bet on the flop when the odds permit you to and fold on the turn when the odds no longer permit you to call there is a different way you must look at it. In this case use the odds for hitting on the turn or river, but instead of thinking as if the pot odds of 11:1 need only match your flop bet add a big bet to it. If the pot odds still give you 11:1 on a flop and turn bet then you can call.

[Precision1C]

If you think this game is as soft as it looks and that 3 nines with win the pot implied odds look like you can call on the flop but not the turn, however I would always fold. The odds on the flop will end up at approximately 17:1 if three others call while two fold which doesn't seem to unreasonable since 7 people were willing to play in a raised pot. While this isn't 22:1 surely you will get played with when a blank like a 9 hits on the turn or river giving you a set so implied odds on this flop bet have to be pretty good. The problem with calling on the turn is that the limits double and the 20 small bets turn into 10 big bets and the odds won't be anywhere near the 22:1 you need to call.

The reason I would never call the flop bet is two fold and based on some erroneous assumptions. First off is the fact that a set of nines are going to be best at the showdown. About 25% of the time they will get cracked maybe more with 7 hands seeing the flop in a raised pot. You could easily be drawing dead if there are two overcards on the flop and all a nine on the turn will do is cost you a lot of money. Not to mention if four+ people see the turn there may be a lot of draws available that will beat three nines unless you fill up. If you add the possibility of a raise,not to mention re-raise, your implied odds get halved or worse making calling poor unless you are in late position relative to the bettor. Personally I would let this on go unless the pair of 99s were an overpair so that I could collect a lot of bets from under sets on the turn and river and possibly rip 3 or 4 big bets from each of the drawing hands.

-Precision1C