Win % always under 10%

[teddyFBI]

I know it's not enough information to make a detailed analysis of my play, but is it common for fairly tight-aggressive players such as myself to consistently have winning hand percentages of under 10%? Nearly every session I have, I hover between 7% and 9% (I assume a 'random' distribution would have me winning about 10%, which is even more surprising, because some of the ring games I play have sometimes only 8 or 9 players instead of the full 10 -- so I'm definitely not winning my 'share' of hands).

The interesting thing, though, is that I've been slowly but surely grinding out profits...maybe $1,500 over last month (my first playing online)...whenever my online player stats tell me that I have been winning 10% or 11%, I'm usually cleaning up pretty quickly - getting a really good run of cards - but 9 times out of 10 I'm hovering in the 7%-9% range...is that typical for good players, or should I be above 10%.
(I usually see between 22% and 28% of flops, if that's any indication of my play pre-flop)

[mmanne]

I'll let you answer your own question after pointing out some facts.
If 10 players played showdown poker, each would have a win % around 10%
You play around 25% of all flops (and are willing to drop if you miss)
Most other players that you are playing against play more than 25% of flops

Is that any help?

[teddyFBI]

I understand, statistically speaking, why my win rate is <10% -- as you pointed out; I simply see fewer flops than my opponents, and the reason I've been able to grind out a small profit so far is that my wins are probably bigger, and I don't suffer all that many costly beats.

I guess my question is simply whether most winning online players also have winning %s consistently below 10%, or might this suggest that I'm playing TOO conservatively.

[mmanne]

No, I think the consensus here is having a % around 7% is fine. What limits/sites are you playing at?

[dink]

about 7% sounds right to me.

If you win your 10% you are playing too many hands, every hand you play costs you money. In horse racing there is a saying,

Every loser you didn't back is as good as an even priced winner.

by not backing losing hands you are winning.

of course if you are playing six handed well that is a different story.

Dink

[HavanaBanana]

Yes, many winning player fold to many hands, they could have won more (but sacrifice $'s for less variance).
I tend to win my fair share of pots and more /images/graemlins/smile.gif

ToT

[teddyFBI]

Typically 3/6 at UB and Party/Empire.
Win rate is usually 7-8% at Party/Empire and 8-10% at UB.

I find 3/6 (for me) is the highest limit at which I feel comfortable playing "right" (at least with my current bankroll). Sometimes I'll sit at 5/10 tables, but find myself getting cold feet when I know I should be raising and re-raising.
I also expected that that play would get better/tighter as I moved up limits...but the play at UB's 5/10 tables was just ridiculous (almost Party-esque)...people calling raises cold pre-flop with 56o, etc. Whereas play at the UB 3/6 tables is fairly predictable.

[mmanne]

I won't beat a dead horse, but remember predictable doesn't always mean the best game to play in. I'd take people playing any cards (and all the bad beats) versus tight predictable opponents everytime.

matt

[MicroBob]

you said you're typically around 7-9%.
i think 9% would be a really good session.
i'm usually around 7-7.5%


you could bring that percentage up to 15% if you wanted to...maybe even 20%....just raise and re-raise on every single hand.
you'll go broke pretty damn fast, but you'll be able to bring up that win-percentage. personally, i would prefer the money.

[Michael Davis]

Anything above 8 is an unrealistically good session for me playing full table games.

-Michael

[BaronVonCP]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, many winning player fold to many hands, they could have won more (but sacrifice $'s for less variance).



[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't accurate in my opinion. You can win more pots, and win less money.

[gabyyyyy]

[ QUOTE ]
know it's not enough information to make a detailed analysis of my play, but is it common for fairly tight-aggressive players such as myself to consistently have winning hand percentages of under 10%? Nearly every session I have, I hover between 7% and 9% (I assume a 'random' distribution would have me winning about 10%, which is even more surprising, because some of the ring games I play have sometimes only 8 or 9 players instead of the full 10 -- so I'm definitely not winning my 'share' of hands).


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, teddy this was something I was thinking about months back. On party poker when my win percentage was under 10 percent I would start playing more hands, and betting more often. If it was over 10 percent I could not win a hand for the life of me.

Call me a kook but, I think party poker only lets you win 10 percent of your hands.

[guppy]

What troubles me is when I have long (2+ hour) sessions running at perhaps 5% wins. They seem to happen to me too often for my liking, and I'm wondering if THAT is a sign I play too tight. Despite occasional delusions of grandeur, my actual results show I'm still roughly just a breakeven low-limit player after rake and before bonus money.

I seem to continually oscillate between calling down flopped straights with my top pair-medium kicker, then tightening up and folding the same hand to a raiser and a re-raiser who show down bottom pair and a busted flush draw.

[dink]

you're a kook

[daveymck]

Like any stat looking at it in isolation isnt really a good guide to whether you are playing well and where you can improve your game.

I would be interested in looking a VPIP, Won at showdown etc etc as a whole and look at long term win rates etc.