How about it?

[Monkeyslacks]

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $15.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, CO (poster) calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (16.66 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (10.33 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, CO calls, Hero folds, UTG+1 folds.

River: (16.33 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, CO folds.

Final Pot: 17.33 BB

[GimmeDaWatch]

You didnt mention what you know of MP1, you're usually beat against any sort of solid player, but this is a hand Im paying off with (if it does turn out that you would have beaten a tricky player, its going to hurt alot more than calling). The pot is pretty big already and its likely just 2 more bets to call with. Did he have the AQ?

[stoxtrader]

He certainly could play AKo this way, I think this is a big laydown and know I don't make it. I also feel I pay off like a slot machine though.

[The Bear]

I fold the turn 0% of the time in that spot. MP1 could easily have AK there. In fact, someone made a similar play against me yesterday with ATs. Even if he has AQ, you have the odds to spike your K. Sure, you'll occasionally be drawing dead against a set, but the pot is quite large and you can't afford to dump the best hand. Bad fold.

[DcifrThs]

this could swing either way slacks...

have you played with MP1 before? the CO called then capped and played the hand like he was on a flush draw or straight draw. MP1 raised 1 limper then called you're 3bet (doesn't sound like AK does it?- why wouldn't he cap here with AK?) then smooth called the flop and raised the man in control of the hand and another caller on the expensive street.

if he's tricky and aggressive AJs is quite possible here. if he's solid it looke like AQ. could he have 99? is he that bad to call the flop with it? other than that though you're set...see all the doubt we have here? 17:2 effective odds on a call down assuming its you and him on the river. are you more than 89.5% sure he's got you beat? if so then fold, if not then call.

sounds simple right? this is where info about the MP1 comes in handy...the key is what he expects you to do when he raises! does he expect you to call? to fold? b/c whatever he expects you to do you should do the opposite. if he wants a fold he's got AJ, AT etc...if he wants a call he's got AQ (or wierdly played sets etc..). if i were you and have ABSOLUTELY NO read i call down. those two bets will be well worth it since there could be more than 10.5% worth of doubt here and seeing how he plays this hand will give me clues as to how he thinks about OTHER hands and allow me to get away later on in the session with just a flesh wound.

if i don't call down now, later on i may be in a similar situation with similar doubt and have to call down THEN...or again, fold w/ doubt. in terms of session play and unknowns, i tend to pay off more earlier so that i know where i'm at with a great degree of accuracy later...initially it costs bets...but i think all in all i save WAY more bets this way (only in the right spots-i.e. the difference between the ev of folding vs. calling down is very small) than i would if i played the folding game...

-Barron

[OrangeHeat]

Ayyee - There is alot of heat in your kitchen. Flip a coin.

Seriously you could be facing a reraise by MP1 or be beat by CO already. Both obviously like their hands. Then again MP1 could have a big ace and CO could have a flush draw.

It is a big laydown that I would not make against unknown opponents.

If I knew MP1 and CO and their level of aggressiveness I might fold (if they are staightforward weak-tight)

Flip a coin - yes.

Orange

[Monkeyslacks]

[ QUOTE ]
You didnt mention what you know of MP1

[/ QUOTE ]

No notes. Played decently from what I had seen of the past 3-4 orbits.

[ QUOTE ]
Did he have the AQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Reread the hand - there was no showdown.

[Monkeyslacks]

[ QUOTE ]
He certainly could play AKo this way

[/ QUOTE ]

I decided on the turn that this was about the best I could hope for from a rationale player.

[Monkeyslacks]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if he has AQ, you have the odds to spike your K.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're sure that a K helps me here? Are you prepared to call two more cold on the river if a king falls? How about if it's the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif? Are you really folding the river if you don't spike a king?

It was the coldcallers that shifted this one to a fold for me. I would say MP1 is ahead here 80%-85% of the time. Maybe against him, a king will give me the pot. If JT is out, I have no outs. If a spade draw is out there, I've got two outs. Bleh.

[skp]

Pot is too big to fold. Pay him off on the turn and river. The only set that seems likely is 99 as I think he plays flopped sets fast either on teh flop or preflop in the case of AA. He also probably does not have AQ as I think he plays that fast also on the flop in a bloated pot. AK/AJ or even A9 are possibilities.

It's just too big a pot to try and save bets particularly when there is real doubt as to whether he has you beat.

[Monkeyslacks]

[ QUOTE ]
if he's tricky and aggressive AJs is quite possible here. if he's solid it looke like AQ. could he have 99?

[/ QUOTE ]

You left out 77. Which is more likely than 99.

[ QUOTE ]
are you more than 89.5% sure he's got you beat? if so then fold, if not then call.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are other people in the hand. It's not this simple.

I may or may not have outs.
They may or may not be clean.
I may be facing two cold when I hit one of my "outs" and will have a hard time releasing top twon on the river.

So while I'm more like 85% sure I'm beat, I say it's still a fold. Remember, I'm chopping a significant portion of the 15% of the time I'm not behind.

How about it now Barron?

[soda]

Too many possibilities here. I would call down. He can have a set, an ace with a spade draw, a huge draw (JsTs), a lot of different two pair combinations, heck - he could even have AJ here. Plus, I want to see what he has before I relinquish a pot this large with aces, king kicker.

Once the flop hits, the only strength the turn cold caller has shown is calling two cold here. I'm not worried about his call really. Some concern, but I think he's at best a tie.

I pay off with solid hands when there is doubt in my mind that I'm not ahead. I have doubt here that you are beat and your hand is solid.

soda

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
How about it now Barron?

[/ QUOTE ]

i still say its close and without a read im calling down for the start of the session. this sends messages and gives valuable info that saves bets later...in THIS SPOT the value of the info alone swings the closeness of a fold to a call...

so for this time, this hand...i call it down...

-Barron

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
Too many possibilities here. I would call down. He can have a set, an ace with a spade draw, a huge draw (JsTs), a lot of different two pair combinations, heck - he could even have AJ here. Plus, I want to see what he has before I relinquish a pot this large with aces, king kicker.

Once the flop hits, the only strength the turn cold caller has shown is calling two cold here. I'm not worried about his call really. Some concern, but I think he's at best a tie.

I pay off with solid hands when there is doubt in my mind that I'm not ahead. I have doubt here that you are beat and your hand is solid.

soda

[/ QUOTE ]

while i call down alot in this situation myself (that's because i am still no good), i think logically, hero is beat here. hero gave a lot of action before the flop and clearly indicated his hand: AA, KK, QQ, AKs or AKo. at worst JJ. yet, MP still smooth-call-and-raised. it smells like a big hand, 2 pr or set.

the possibility of AsXs is less, IMO.

Kenny

[The Bear]

[ QUOTE ]
You're sure that a K helps me here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope.

[ QUOTE ]
Are you prepared to call two more cold on the river if a king falls?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably not, but you never know.

[ QUOTE ]
How about if it's the K : /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I can think of much worse fates than the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif falling on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
Are you really folding the river if you don't spike a king?


[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, the pot's huge and I have top pair, top kicker. With my spike a K comment, I was simply implying that if you're behind, you could have outs. I think you're ahead enough to call down here.

[ QUOTE ]

It was the coldcallers that shifted this one to a fold for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that coldcaller on the turn complicates things slightly, but I see players cold-calling all the time there w/ middle pair or top pair, bad kicker.

We're clearly just disagreeing on how often you're ahead on the turn. I would say you're ahead at least 25% of the time.

You make some good points here, but I still think calling down is right. Big pot, pretty big hand, call down.