Newbie question about the odds screen in TTH.

[pb3179]

OK, I'm just getting into the odds thing when playing holdem, so I'm a bit clueless about this.

Say I have a pair of Kings at the flop. In Turbo Texas Holdem the odds screen says:
Chance of making trip K's on the turn 22.5 to 1
Chance of making trip K's at the river 13.9 to 1

When I get to the turn, (and missed my king) the odds screen says:
Chance of making trip K's at the river 22 to 1.

Now I understand how they arrive at the 22 to 1 figure. How does the "Chance of making trip K's at the river 13.9 to 1" while I'm still at the flop come in play. I have absolutely no idea what its about.

Thanks.

[SnakeRat]

It means your chances of catching a king by the river are 13.9 to 1 against.
Thats with 2 cards to come.

2/47 chance of a K hitting on the turn, if you miss then its 2/46 chance of it hitting on the river.

Add those 2 probabilities up.

[pb3179]

Thanks SnakeRat.

Now if I had to call that hand (or any pair) to make trips on the turn I would be wanting pot odds to be 22 to 1 or greater to make it worthwhile, is that correct?

If yes, then the 13.9 to 1 by the river odds should be ignored in actual play?

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
2/47 chance of a K hitting on the turn, if you miss then its 2/46 chance of it hitting on the river.

Add those 2 probabilities up.

[/ QUOTE ]

2/47 * 36/46 * 2 = 14-to-1.

The 36/46 excludes paired boards so full-houses and quads are not counted. The *2 allows either the turn or the river to be a K. I don't know why the program reports 13.9 instead of 14.

[Gator]

A good way to approximate your odds with two cards to come is to double your outs. In your example, you had two outs which means on the turn you have a 2/47 chance of making a set -- if you don't make it there you have a 2/46 chance on the river. The correct odds for making it on the turn or river is the 1 out of 13.9 or 7.19% -- the shortcut approximation is to double the two outs to 4 and divide by 47 which equals 8.51%.

[SnakeRat]

You shouldn NOT ignore odds of hitting by the river in actual play.

A good example is when you flop a 4 flush with 3+ loose people in.

In this case you want to be jamming the pot on the flop, not only because it disguises your hand somewhat, but because your odds of hitting by the river are quite good.

If you miss on the turn you should usually not be raising anymore since your odds of hitting have just gone way down.


Looking at odds and implied odds is covered well, in Theory Of Poker, or if you do some searches on this board.