adios
07-07-2004, 02:53 PM
The enterprise software makers seem to be having lackluster sales. Veritas (VRTS) took a monster hit on a pre-announced earnings miss. I know it's a falling knife but they get stuck in something eventually. FWIW I like to see the volume die down and play a bounce off the lows. My goal is to sell after a 10% gain or so and wait for a re-test of the lows. Don't know if this trade is +EV or not but I've made money on similar situations. Another one that might work out and is probably less risky is Fremont General Corp. It's a California bank whose earnings are driven by real estate loan originations. They've done really well but the perception is that there originations will slow which makes sense. It's trading at a PE of slightly over 5. I've traded this one and made money. I'm waiting for the next quarterly report to see how earnings are affected by the higher interest rates. I'd take a position for sure at $15 a share. BTW 30 year fixed mortgage rates dropped below 6% again.