How to get back on track?

[adam61]

June was a horrible month for me. April and May I felt like I really improved my game, got my ROI up from 10% to 25% or so on party. I was doing pretty well, very seriously considering moving up to $20+2 but before I did I wanted to branch out a little and play a few other game types with my big new bankroll. I had built my bankroll from $225 to $650 during this couple months at $10+1 on party.

I had been a successful limit player before I started playing SNGs. So I went back and played some $2/4 and lost about $150 which could be nothing but a bad streak but I decided to skip on that. I continued playing $10+1 and winning ok but also doing a few multi-tables here and there to the tune of about -$125. I tried 3 of the 3-Table $30+3s and took 6 8 and 10th which was pretty devastating to lose on the bubble all 3 times and lose another $100.

I went back to $10+1 and got my account back up to $450. Then I decided I'd cut out all the crap and refocus myself on $20+2. I played 9 and lost them all. I didn't feel particularly outplayed but the competition was definitely a little better. So I took about a week off to rest my brain, settle down, and rethink.

I came back and have played about 100 SNGs since then at $10+1 with a 2% ROI (dismal). The last 30 or so of those I stopped 2 tabling and really buckled down and tightened up which usually will get me a couple places, and that hasn't really helped either.

So what's my move here, and what mistakes did I make? I've had bad runs but they've never been -$450(at my low limits that a lot) and they've never been soooooo drawn out. Is it a mistake to try other game types, especially ones you know you should be somewhat positive at? And was it a good idea to move up to 20+2? Was trying some multi-tables a good idea? And finally what's my best bet to get myself back on track and hopefully move to 20+2?

[adam61]

And I should mention for my last 50 or so (most 1-tabled) MY ROI has dropped to -15% for these. 25% of finishes in 8-10th which is really rare for me. Some of the 8ths came on level 5 so that was mainly a lot of me getting blinded down. I took 1 4th on level 9, 1 on level 8, 2 on level 7 and a 5th on level 7. I dunno but games going on the bubble to levels 7-9 is a lot more common, and that's probably commiting to some of my bubble losses, I'm guessing I'm too aggressive when they get to 200/400 or higher on the bubble.

[holeplug]

How many SNGs have you played total? A 10% ROI is kinda low for the $11 SNGs on PP. It looks to me like you just got on a hot streak for a month or two and came crashing back to earth. If you keep stats (I hope you do) what do your finishes ITM look like. With a 10% ROI I would guess you aren't finishing 1st enough and are getting alot more 3rd and 2nd place finishes.

[adam61]

As far as party SNGs about 1200, about 300 more on Stars, so 1500ish. My last 50 have been horrendous which tells me I've had to be on tilt or something. Nearly 50% of my places are 7-10th, which is very uncharacteristic. I'm only assuming I'm on tilt because of all the low finishes, I know I'm not playing more starting hands than usual and I know I'm not making insane bluffs or anything, so it has to be a mix of overplaying big hands and bad luck. Yes I get more 2nd/3rds than 1sts on Party, it annoys the crap out of me. Here I'll give basic results for my last 50 last 350 and last 837. These are all results from party, all $10+1. And the larger result sets include smaller sets IE the last 350 includes the 50 from the first set plus 300 more.

Last 50 (Horrible streak, especially the low finishes)
ITM-26%
ROI-neg21.8%
1st-8%
2nd-10%
3rd-8%
4th-10%
5th-8%
6th-6%
7th-10%
8th-16%
9th-12%
10th-12%

Last 350
ITM-38.3%
ROI-13.8%
1st-11.7%
2nd-13.4%
3rd-13.1%
4th-11.1%
5th-10.6%
6th-10%
7th-8%
8th-7.4%
9th-9.7%
10th-4.9%

Last 837
ITM-35.6%
ROI-5.4%
1st-10.3%
2nd-13.9%
3rd-11.5%
4th-12.9%
5th-13.5%
6th-9.4%
7th-8.6%
8th-8.2%
9th-7.4%
10th-4.3%

I feel the last 350 is probably the best indicator, those are the 350 I've played since returning from stars. The ROI is fairly low but that's a lot to do with my last 100 and especially my last 50. At the 250 played since returning mark I was around 26% ROI. Thoughts?

[Potowame]

Sounds like you have a major hole in your game somewhere. You need to stop playing read a good poker book several times, and try to find out where you are going wrong, to get your play to or back to winning form.

Also, if you are playing with the attitude that your are going to lose, you more than likley will. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[djcolts]

[ QUOTE ]
Last 350
ITM-38.3%
ROI-13.8%
1st-11.7%
2nd-13.4%
3rd-13.1%
4th-11.1%
5th-10.6%
6th-10%
7th-8%
8th-7.4%
9th-9.7%
10th-4.9%



[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, you seem to have too many finishes in the 7th through 10th range. On Levels 1-3 you should probably be more selective with your starting hands. Yes, that means that you'll end up with around 600 chips at level 4 a good portion of the time, but that at least gives you a chance to compete.

[Sam T.]

The stats that worry me are the number of times you've been knocked out in the bottom 3-4 places. Go back and have a look at the hands you went in with and those that beat you. For a guess, it was a lot of top pair with a lousy kicker, and you were so desperate for a win, you couldn't bring yourself to lay it down. (I've been there.) At this point it is a matter of having the discipline to make the right play, even if it's not the one you want.

I agree with some other posters. Take a week away from the cards. Rent some good movies (other than "Rounders"), and read Theory of Poker and TPFAP. I find that reading not only helps my game at a practical level, but also does a world of good for my confidence. It reminds me of the difference between me and most of the competition - I work harder, think harder and take the game more seriously than they do. It helps me to have faith in my own decisions and ability, which in turn allows me to lay down my top pair, mediocre kicker. Why take this risk now, when I can outplay them later?

[adam61]

It varies slightly but levels 1-3 I play the following hands Pairs 22-AA (drop the lower pairs if lots of raises or it's level 3 and I'm in EP. AKo AQo AJo. AKs-AJs, KQs, QJs, JTs. That's about it. I tend to try and be aggressive with these hands though and that can get me in some trouble. So the question is am I selective and weak early or selective and agressive, and if so then how aggressive. example would be AKo I raise to 4x or so preflop like 125 into 30 chips. I get 1 caller. Flop comes KT3 I bet 275 or so into the 300 chip pot....they raise all-in. That situation with AK or AQ or KQ is a good bit of my knockouts. Another couple is an overpair like JJ on a T87 board that's knocked me out of a couple. 2 pair has taken me out of 3-4 in the last 100 by getting drawn ut on with a straight or flush. Set has knocked me out of 3 or so also in the last 100. I would say 90% of the 7-10ths have been on AK KQ AQ while pairing on the flop and being beaten or drawn out on, set or 2-pair being beaten by a flush/straight, or a flush draw with overcards and correct odds not paying off. How do I plug this up somewhat without getting completely timid with my play?

[BradleyT]

I might drop AJo and QJs. Those hands are hard to play correctly from anywhere but CO/Button.

[Sam T.]

[ QUOTE ]
I would say 90% of the 7-10ths have been on AK KQ AQ while pairing on the flop and being beaten or drawn out on, set or 2-pair being beaten by a flush/straight, or a flush draw with overcards and correct odds not paying off.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is correct (Is the 90% figure your impression or stats from PT?), this is a truly remarkable run of bad luck. Others have argued here that TPTK is not that great a hand, but I disagree. (Frozen Fish quotes T.J. Cloutier, "Texas hold'em is a game of top pair, top kicker.") If you have the hands saved, I'd have another look, and post a few of them. Don't look for the truly bad beats (72o rivering trips), but the average ones. There may have been signs that told you it was time to slow down.

[adam61]

Yea there were, but it's still hard to tell early in the tournament if a bad player thinks his middle pair is amazing and is pushing on you, or if he has 2 pair or a set, or if he's drawing. I have made this analysis of my play, I usually play quite well against good players, and bad against bad players, been tough to stop though.

God I need to take another break, since posting this, I've taken 10th 3 times AA vs AK AA vs AT and KKK loses to flush. A 9th where I had flopped top 2 pair and beaten by a flush. And 2 4ths on level EIGHT. None of this is exaggerated in ANY way and all of these hands were played TODAY.

[Sam T.]

If you're finishing fourth on level eight, you need to play at night when you can finish fourth on level one, and save yourself an hour! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Potowame]

Sounds Like PP, hehe. I went through a one day beating on there I will never forget. Flop the nuts and, end up sucked out on the river (STR8, SET, TOP TWO, ECT.). lost alot on the 200nl tables that day. Took a break for a while to try and figure out what I was doing wrong.
First, thing that I found was that I was betting correct on the flop to give someone chasing incorrect odds to call, (lol its pp, they think only implied odds) but when the card that I feared hit the turn I was calling a all-in out of frustration, or trying to improve my set to a full on the river or ect.
Second, I found that it is easier to get a bad player to fold to a Flush draw or str8 draw on the turn. I will more than likley bet the Flop to give incorrect odds than push a brick turn. Plus if they do call here, your chances for losing have decreased dramatically. but if the turn is a card that you feel has killed your hand, you have to fold, you can't keep calling think that he could be putting a move on me. More times than not he has you beat.

Overall I have just found that I was pushing in on a great flop for me and getting , sucked out on on the river. I felt that the change to push on the turn is a better play on (Party Poker) anyways.

[adam61]

Yes thanks for all the advice some times I just gotta air out my dirty laundry to feel better. This last 5 weeks has been my worst ever, I've learned how I handle horrible runs. It's really difficult though, since I'm a pretty average player I have experience handling 9 losses in a row, but man 5 weeks of bleeding out nearly $500(Of my $650 bankroll) is near unbearable.

But back to some of the first questions I asked...

Is it ok to try other things especially when you are winning? Trying a higher limit to see how you like it, MTTs, Limit Hold'Em all are things I should be positive ROI at or break-even. Obviously if I tried Omaha 8OB I'd EXPECT to lose a couple hundred cause I've never played before. But all the things I branched out to I'd played successfully before.

Obviously I shouldn't move up right now, I'm in a bad temper, I don't have the bankroll, and probably not even the ROI. So the question is when do I think about moving up, Literally a month ago I had 30 buy-ins for $22 and a 26% ROI at $11 so that seemed like a good time but didn't work out.

I feel like there are holes equally spread out throughout my game, I may make a post later asking for some suggestions there. As in I feel I take 7-10th too much, I feel I take 4-5th too much and miss the money, and I feel I take 2nd and 3rd too much when I'm in the money. Each one shears a good chunk off my ROI.

Thanks again for the input, I feel I'm a very analytical player, I know I still make mistakes but I don't feel like I'm getting my fair share of wins lately.

[mackthefork]

I've just come out of a very unlucky spell of about 50 where i was playing pretty good, i just about broke even. I ran good for about 10, now i'm starting to play very poorly and find it hard to put down a hand. Maybe you are experiencing something similar, I hope not for your sake, it seems to be a hard cycle to break.

Good luck man

Regards ML

[DaffyDuck]

Twice in my short poker life (6 months) I have gone on "slumps" where I was just breaking even for a while (week or two).

Both times I came to the realization I had gradually become weak-tight. I was playing what I believed to be good poker, playing solid hands, etc. but as it turns out, with no agression which translated to no profit.

I believe this was the result of playing very loose players who will call with anything and suffering some bad beats. So, I think I get tentative and just end up limping a lot, trying to hit flops and folding or tilting and calling all-ins stupidly with stuff like top pair, etc.

Both times I broke my slump by playing purposefully agressively. As an exercise to prevent this, now and again I will play a SNG where I will purposely NEVER limp and rarely call a bet/raise/reraise but either fold or push. This is often profitable anyway, and it gets my mindset out of the weak-tight mode I get in from playing maniacs.

Bob

[stupidsucker]

Getting back on track.

I think you are on the fence of being a winning SnG player, and tyour RoI shows that. Sometimes winning changes our outlook, and we start to play a little looser, or maybe even too tight.

If you dont have Poker Tracker. Get it.

Read up on this forum, do some searches and spend an hour a day studying/reading Or more.

Stay at the 10+1 level and dont budge till you have played a few hundred SnGs and your RoI gets over 25%(this is still fairly low for party 10+1)

I honestly wouldnt consider moving up to 20+2 until your bankroll hits 1kplus, but this may be over conservative if you are indeed 'back on track' Dont even think about this though. Concentrate on 10+1 and getting a suitable RoI for a long period of time (at least 200-300 SnGs)

All of this may seem like too much, but the confidence level will be high once you achieve your goal.

Good luck

Also play late.. day time SnGs are much tougher.