Stupid Question, Please Help

[Goon2]

I have a question, but I need to put up an example to ask it:

Suppose I have JTo.
The Flop comes 892.
If I am calculating my odds to make a straight, I count my 8 outs, which are the four Qs and four 7s. There are 47 cards I haven't seen, so the odds of me making the straight are 47:8 against, or just over 6:1.

Suppose there is $20 in the pot, and it will cost $5 to call the only bet that has been made (assume I am on the button vs. one opponent). So if I call, I'm betting $5 to win $25, and am getting 5:1 odds. Since I am 6:1 to hit my straight (which I think will be the nuts for the sake of argument), I cannot call the bet on the turn.

The question is, am I really 6:1 against on the turn since the turn and the river is yet to come? I know my odds of hitting the straight improve slightly on the river because the outs go from 8:47 to 8:46. Is there more to this I can't see?

I think I also understand about implied odds. Say if I call on the turn, I "know" my opponent will bet on the river, such that there would have been $25 in the pot on the turn, and $30 in the pot on the river. At that point I would have to bet $5 to win $35, making it 7:1, meaning I should call.

So, then, does that mean I call on the turn even though I don't have the pot odds on the turn but expect to have them on the river?

Noone has ever sat down and given the pot odds for dummies lecture. I don't find enough examples to get it through my math-challenged head.

Please help.

[geek]

I am a new player and struggle with this also. I can give you the straight probability, but it still won't be much help as to how to play it.

As you look at the flop, the probability you will end up with your straight if you stick around for the turn and the river is 31.5% This is most easily figured by computing the probibility that you WON'T make it on the turn (39/47) times the probability that you WON'T make it on the river (38/46). (39/47)*(38/46)=0.685. The probability you will make your straight on the turn or the river or both is 1-0.685.

This, however, does not imply chasing after the flop with pot odds of 3.2:1. This must in reality be discounted for the possibility of a pair on the board, three suited on the board, making your straight on the turn then having it fill in on the river, etc.

The right answer is somewhere between 3.2:1 and 6:1 for your post flop decision. I'm not exactly sure where it is, but I suspect it's much closer to 6:1.

[Lost Wages]

You are not 47:8 against on the flop, you are (47-8):8 = 39:8 = 4.9:1 against. In other words, 8 cards complete your draw and 39 do not.

From flop to river you are (39/47)*(38/46):(1-(39/47)*(38/46)) = 2.2:1 against.

The simplest method for deciding if you can call is to look at your pot odds vs. the odds of completing your hand. If your pot odds are greater than your drawing odds then you call otherwise you fold.

Pot Odds = (Current Pot) : (Amount to Call)

The current pot is the pot including your opponents bet but not including your call. So if the pot is $20 on the flop and your opponent bets $4 then you are getting 24:4 = 6:1 pot odds so you would be correct to call with a straight draw.

I will leave the discussion of implied odds for another post.

Of course, real world poker is more complicated. For one, you have another option besides calling and folding and that is raising which may cause your opponent to fold or buy you a free card or of course he could reraise so you would have to assign probabilities to those to do a complete analysis. Second, the hand that you are drawing to may be a loser anyway.

Bottom line; it is almost always correct to draw to 8 out straights and flushes if you figure your hand will be best when you make it.

Lost Wages

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a question, but I need to put up an example to ask it:

Suppose I have JTo.
The Flop comes 892.
If I am calculating my odds to make a straight, I count my 8 outs, which are the four Qs and four 7s. There are 47 cards I haven't seen, so the odds of me making the straight are 47:8 against, or just over 6:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, there are 8 cards that help you and 39 that don't, so the odds are 39:8 against, or a little better than 5:1. The probability of making your hand is 8/47 or about 1 in 6, but these are not the odds.

[ QUOTE ]
Suppose there is $20 in the pot, and it will cost $5 to call the only bet that has been made (assume I am on the button vs. one opponent). So if I call, I'm betting $5 to win $25, and am getting 5:1 odds. Since I am 6:1 to hit my straight (which I think will be the nuts for the sake of argument), I cannot call the bet on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If there was $20, and your $5 call makes it $25, then you are betting $5 to win $20, so you are getting 4:1 odds. You don't include your $5 call in the size of the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
The question is, am I really 6:1 against on the turn since the turn and the river is yet to come? I know my odds of hitting the straight improve slightly on the river because the outs go from 8:47 to 8:46. Is there more to this I can't see?

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, if the turn card has not been dealt, then you are "on the flop", not "on the turn". The odds are 5:1 against making your hand on the turn card, so you need pot odds better than 5:1 to see the turn card unless you think you will win additional bets after you make your hand. If you will win a double size bet on the turn, then you only need 3:1 now, and if you think you can win a double size bet after both the turn and the river, then you only need pot odds of 1:1 now, since you will collect another 4 small bets.

The odds against making your hand in 2 cards are 2.2:1, but it will cost you at least 3 bets to see 2 cards: 1 small bet to see the turn card plus 2 small bets to see the river card. You will also win at least 2 additional small bets from your opponent on the turn, so you have effective odds of 6:3 or 2:1. This is less than the 2.2:1 odds against making your hand in 2 cards, so this would not be a reason to call. You don't actually have to do this calculation for 2 cards to come because if don't have the pot odds to see the next card, then you don't have the effective odds to see 2 cards either. So you should only call if you have the pot odds to see the next card, or if you can count on winning enough after you make your hand on the next card to make up the difference.

[ QUOTE ]
I think I also understand about implied odds. Say if I call on the turn, I "know" my opponent will bet on the river, such that there would have been $25 in the pot on the turn, and $30 in the pot on the river. At that point I would have to bet $5 to win $35, making it 7:1, meaning I should call.

So, then, does that mean I call on the turn even though I don't have the pot odds on the turn but expect to have them on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, replace "turn" with "flop" and "river" with "turn", or nobody will understand what the hell you're talking about. Also, what kind of game is this where the bet on the turn and river is the same as on the flop? Normally the bet doubles on the turn. If there is $30 in the pot and you have to call $5, then you are getting 6:1 odds. Since the odds against making your hand on the last card are 5:1, you should call. This doesn't necessarily mean that it was correct to call on the flop because you would have had to consider the extra money it cost you to see 2 cards as explained above.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Goon2]

Thanks to you guys for spending time to clear the crap from my mind.

The most helpful thing was reading that I should not call on the turn if I don't have the correct odds unless I think the difference will be made up by additional bets on the river.

I am confused about one thing. I read somewhere that you do count your bet in the pot when calculating odds, such that if it is $5 to call and there is $20 in the pot, then the odds are $25:$5 or 5:1. But I am learning here that I do NOT count the $5 I'm putting in, making the pot odds 4:1. Is that right?

[Lost Wages]

[ QUOTE ]
you have effective odds of 4+3:1+3 or 7:4

[/ QUOTE ]

Shouldn't this be 4+3:3? I am assuming you meant the pot size is 4 to start the flop.

Lost Wages

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you have effective odds of 4+3:1+3 or 7:4

[/ QUOTE ]

Shouldn't this be 4+3:3? I am assuming you meant the pot size is 4 to start the flop.

Lost Wages

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually it should be 4+2:1+2 = 2:1. His pot odds on the flop were 4:1 to see the next card, meaning it cost 1 bet to win 4 bets. To see 2 cards, it costs 2 more small bets (=1 big bet) to win 4+2 bets, so his effective odds are 4+2:1+2 = 6:3 = 2:1. I went back and changed the post, thanks.

[aloiz]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't actually have to do this calculation for 2 cards to come because if don't have the pot odds to see the next card, then you don't have the effective odds to see 2 cards either. So you should only call if you have the pot odds to see the next card, or if you can count on winning enough after you make your hand on the next card to make up the difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it possible against two opponents on the flop facing bet and a raise that you would have incorrect pot odds on the flop, but correct effective odds if you can assume the orginal better will call the flop raise and turn bet?

e.g. sb bets, BB raises, and you're getting 9:2 making it incorrect to draw to an open-ended straight, but your effective odds would be 13:4 or 3.25:1 making it correct to call. Is this right?

aloiz

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
I am confused about one thing. I read somewhere that you do count your bet in the pot when calculating odds, such that if it is $5 to call and there is $20 in the pot, then the odds are $25:$5 or 5:1. But I am learning here that I do NOT count the $5 I'm putting in, making the pot odds 4:1. Is that right?

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot odds are 4:1, you do NOT include your $5 in the pot size when computing pot odds. Then you compare the pot odds to the odds against making your hand which are (non-outs:outs). You were using 5:1 instead of the pot odds of 4:1, but you were also comparing that to (total remaining cards:outs) which is 1/probability of making your hand, rather than the odds. That works too as long as you're consistent. Most people use odds rather than probability.

Just think about what is happening. If the odds against making your hand are 4-to-1, that means you have 4 losses for every 1 win. In order to break even, when you win you must win 4 times the amount that you lose when you lose, which is 4 times the amount of your bet. That means you need 4-to-1 pot odds.

Don't confuse this with another case when it IS correct to include your bet in the pot size: that is if you have bet, and then it is raised back to you. In that case, your original bet is now part of the pot when you figure your new pot odds to decide whether to call the raise.

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't actually have to do this calculation for 2 cards to come because if don't have the pot odds to see the next card, then you don't have the effective odds to see 2 cards either. So you should only call if you have the pot odds to see the next card, or if you can count on winning enough after you make your hand on the next card to make up the difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it possible against two opponents on the flop facing bet and a raise that you would have incorrect pot odds on the flop, but correct effective odds if you can assume the orginal better will call the flop raise and turn bet?

e.g. sb bets, BB raises, and you're getting 9:2 making it incorrect to draw to an open-ended straight, but your effective odds would be 13:4 or 3.25:1 making it correct to call. Is this right?

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be 9:2, which is less 5:1 needed for the straight draw, but if the original bettor calls the raise, then it's 10:2 or 5:1, even without the bets on the next round. But you're correct that players yet to act on the same round must often be taken into account in the computation of effective odds to justify a call, rather than just the pot odds.

There are also some cases when we have more than one opponent, that effective odds computed for 2 cards to come can justify a call where pot odds would not. For this to occur, we must be able to count on more than one opponent staying in for a bet on the turn. Since we can't always count on that, effective odds must often be computed under the worst case conditions of only 1 caller on the turn. My statement about only using the pot odds for the next card was intended mainly for the single opponent assumption.

Actually, it turns out that even with a single opponent, there is a case where effective odds with 2 cards to come can reduce the pot size requirement to call by 1 bet, but the play is very close. This case happens when there are 10 or 11 outs. For 11 outs on the flop, we need 4-to-1 pot odds to see the next card, but the probability of hitting in 2 cards is 2*11/47 - 11*10/47/46 = 1.4-to-1. If we only had 3 bets in the pot instead of 4, our effective odds would be 3+2:1+2 = 1.67 > 1.4, so a call is still OK based on effective odds.

[aloiz]

Yea I realized it was a bad example after I posted, but when the two do conflict, am I right in assuming that the correct decision should be made using the effective odds? (Assuming that you ignore the implied odds)

aloiz