Bubble time...

[DarrenX]

Sorry guys, can't get the hand converter at work...

***** Hand History for Game 720043931 *****
300/600 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 4476825) - Fri Jul 02 18:15:38 EDT 2004
Table Table 14212 (Real Money) -- Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: caserd (2142)
Seat 7: DarrenX (1900)
Seat 8: MrTAndersen (4642)
Seat 10: philny (1316)
caserd posts small blind (150)
DarrenX posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to DarrenX [ Jd, Js ]
MrTAndersen raises (1000) to 1000
philny folds.
caserd calls (850)
DarrenX...?? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[djcolts]

I'm not an expert at all - so take this with the grain of salt.

I'd fold and let the two big stacks go at it. The early position raise and the call from the SB is enough of a reason for me to fold here. You have enough time to make a move later (steal blinds, etc.)

[2planka]

2 choices: fold or all in.

I'm inclined to fold, thinking my hand is at best a coin flip in this situation. Still hearing the voices of my weak-tight tendencies (demons that I'm working to exorcise). My guess is that Strassa et. al. will berate me for this.

That said, I can see value to pushing here. It could knock out the big stack and if the hand is good you're in great position to place ITM. Heads up this is an easier push. Three handed I'm not so sure. You have to take a shot somewhere. So, I'll go against the evil voices and say push this baby. Take your stand now and hope SB's AQ is no good.

Too reckless? I'm trying to emerge from weak tight, so feel free to flame me.

[BigJohn043]

Very strange hand. Not exactly sure why caserd is calling. Is there any read on the players?

If I thought caserd was a poor player, I might put him on either a middle pair or two high cards. No idea what the big stack has, although he could be raising with a whole range of cards. Has he been pretty aggressive?

If both fold to an all-in raise, you would be the chip leader and in very good position. If both have over-cards, you are clearly getting the right price. If one has an over-pair, you are hosed.

I think pushing is wrong, but I might try it here. I just don't know what to make of the call by caserd....

[ddubois]

Isn't caserd's call consistent with somenoe who has AA (or maybe KK) and wants more customers to come along?

[BigJohn043]

"Isn't caserd's call consistent with somenoe who has AA (or maybe KK) and wants more customers to come along?"

Maybe. But I would have reraised all-in and been very happy winning 1000 or getting a call.

In the end, the fact that I don't quite understand that move may be reason enough to lay down the hand.

[slogger]

Very interesting spot. My guess is that you're ahead of the raiser's Ax. If there were no caller, you'd be pushing, knowing that raiser must call (pot odds), and hoping for raiser to have no more than one overcard.

The caller may change things, but I'm not so sure. A call by him is a very strange play (not that it should matter, but what buy-in was this?) because if he's got a big hand, he's pot-committing himself while also giving the raiser (and you, for that matter) a chance to draw out on him. Doesn't mean he couldn't have AA or KK, but it seems unlikely.

More likely he'd do this with A-paint or a medium pair, but I still think he should've pushed or folded with either of those hands. Without a read, which is something you should've had on these guys by this point, I'm going to say that you're likely ahead of both.

The question then becomes whether it's just too weak-tight to fold this. You're probably facing 2 or 3 overcards, with a small chance of an overpair, and they're not folding to your push. You're about 57% against one A-overcard and one A-undercard. You're about the same against A-over and an underpair. You have to push if this is what you're reading them for.

That said, the chance that your behind an overpair can only be calculate based on how these two have played to this point. Is caller overly tricky? Would raiser have pushed all-in on a steal? You can definitely make arguments for folding as on your opponents is likey to get him/herself into trouble here and the folder will still be shorter than you even after you post the small on the next hand.

Very interesting spot indeed. Without a read, I'm pushing, but it's close.

[DarrenX]

Thanks for the posts. Usually I've got pretty good notes on guys at this late point in a game, but I must have been watching poker at the same time, as I had none. FYI, $50+$5 PP SNG.

I too was puzzled by the flat call... I took it as KK or AA myself, and folded...

For those who are interested, the flop came 3 rags, SB pushed, and after thinking, the big stack called with his AKo vs 99- a K hit on the turn, and I survived to take 1st... /images/graemlins/grin.gif Not to be results-oriented or anything... /images/graemlins/crazy.gif